KillsLean
Line
28.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
30.88
Hit
57.8%
EV+
+0.1%
Edge
+2.4
L10
60%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
13.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
14.98
Hit
58.3%
EV+
+1.0%
Edge
+1.5
L10
60%

Rifler
nbqq
Brute vs BakS eSports
LEAN · OVER 28.5
▲ L5 32.8 · L20 30.5
Hit rates at 28.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
60%
12/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
High
±9.78
Previous meeting · vs BakS eSports
No meeting with BakS eSports in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
28.8
5/10 hit at 28.5
Online · this match
32.2
7/10 hit at 28.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm nbqq is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 28.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 50.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Kills · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Needs 29+ kills: 0.654 KPR over ~44 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (53.5%) or blowout (29%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
30.88
Raw edge
+2.4
Cons. hit
57.8%
EV+
+0.1%
Rating
5.2/10
Exp. rounds
43.6
Line
28.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
57.8%
+0.5 →
Learned
58.3%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 26.5-30.5
All players · Kills
53.6%334 picks
This player
0%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 59.6% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +2.4 below ±3.0 minimum
- High form volatility
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 60.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 54% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (30.06) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 31.8 kills vs line 28.5 (6/10 over). KPR 0.71, HS 50%. Next: vs BAKS, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 31.8 against a 28.5 line
Biggest risk: 30% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 30% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
- • Model 30.88 vs line 28.5 → +2.38 (8.4%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 60% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 43.6 rounds · 2-0 53.5% · OT 14.4%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.25
HS/Map
7.6
K/D
1.05
KPR
0.71
ADR
81.4
KAST
71.5%
HS%
49.8%
Multi-kill
17.1%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)14.3 · KPR 0.678 · 21.2r
Map 2 (Dust2)15.8 · KPR 0.708 · 22.4r
Required KPR to clear0.654
Base kills (Maps 1-2)30.23
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.58%
Final projected kills30.06
BakS eSports gives up (31 series)-5.7% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 28.5. Model: 59.6% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps29%
~26 kills · 37r34.9%
Normal44.3%
~31 kills · 44r59.9%
Close maps12.3%
~33 kills · 47r66.5%
Overtime14.4%
~37 kills · 53r80.9%
Match context
Oct 23, 05:00 PMOnlineCCT Europe 2026 Series 11
Win chance source: Polymarket 50.5%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 50% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Mirage
21.2r
-4% KPR here
M2 Dust2
22.4r
Total
43.6r
2-0 sweep53.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime14.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)29%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 28.5 (Over) · avg 31.8 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
28.5
Nearby lines
| 26.5 Over | 62.2% | |
| 27.5 Over | 60.9% | |
| 28.5 Over | 57.8% | OFFERED |
| 29.5 Over | 55.7% | below BE |
| 30.5 Over | 53.4% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 28.5
Line movement
first 28.5→offno change
- Pulled30.5Oct 23, 05:12 PM
- Back on board30.5 → 30.5Oct 23, 05:11 PM
- Pulled30.5Oct 23, 05:11 PM
- Moved up29.5 → 30.5Oct 23, 04:06 PM
- Moved down30.5 → 29.5Oct 23, 02:48 PM
- Moved up29.5 → 30.5Oct 23, 02:20 PM
- Moved up28.5 → 29.5Oct 23, 02:42 AM
- Moved down29.5 → 28.5Oct 23, 02:42 AM
- Moved up28.5 → 29.5Oct 23, 02:42 AM
- First seen28.5Oct 22, 05:02 PM
Map stats
Mirage
13 maps
Kills
13.4
KPR
0.67
HS%
51.1%
K/D
0.99
Dust2
9 maps
Kills
15.1
KPR
0.71
HS%
46.3%
K/D
1.09
Anubis
6 maps
Kills
18.7
KPR
0.81
HS%
47.3%
K/D
1.15
Inferno
4 maps
Kills
16.5
KPR
0.62
HS%
48.5%
K/D
0.99
Cache
4 maps
Kills
15.8
KPR
0.67
HS%
57.1%
K/D
0.98
Ancient
2 maps
Kills
17.5
KPR
0.85
HS%
62.9%
K/D
1.13
Nuke
2 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.73
HS%
37.5%
K/D
1.04
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | Sangal | 14 Nuke 13-4 | 5 Mirage 3-13 | 19 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-21 | ex-6666 | 18 Anubis 13-8 | 17 Mirage 13-11 | 35 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-19 | Phantom | 18 Mirage 13-16 | 28 Inferno 19-16 | 46 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-18 | BET-M | 13 Inferno 13-6 | 15 Mirage 13-5 | 28 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | mellren | 15 Inferno 16-13 | 21 Dust2 13-16 | 36 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-26 | Inner Circle Academy | 21 Anubis 10-13 | 24 Mirage 10-13 | 45 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-26 | Four Magic | 15 Mirage 13-1 | 20 Dust2 13-5 | 35 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-25 | aimclub | 7 Mirage 6-13 | 9 Dust2 13-9 | 16 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | INFURITY | 10 Inferno 10-13 | 12 Cache 16-12 | 22 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-21 | SPARTA | 19 Dust2 13-10 | 17 Mirage 13-7 | 36 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-20 | BET-M | 12 Mirage 11-13 | 17 Ancient 9-13 | 29 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-17 | QUAZAR | 26 Anubis 16-14 | 6 Mirage 13-8 | 32 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-15 | G2 Ares | 18 Ancient 6-13 | 18 Cache 13-11 | 36 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-01 | PCIFIC | 15 Dust2 11-13 | 10 Anubis 13-8 | 25 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-08 | Nexus | 12 Cache 7-13 | 17 Anubis 9-13 | 29 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-08 | eSuba | 20 Anubis 13-8 | 20 Dust2 13-4 | 40 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-07 | NAVI Junior | 15 Mirage 13-4 | 7 Dust2 5-13 | 22 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-02 | 9INE | 7 Mirage 3-13 | 10 Nuke 3-13 | 17 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-02 | Acend | 10 Dust2 5-13 | 16 Mirage 13-5 | 26 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-02 | 9INE | 15 Dust2 13-10 | 21 Cache 13-9 | 36 | W | Over ✓ |







































































































































































