KillsBetter playRisk
Line
30.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
29.39
Hit
50.4%
EV+
-12.6%
Edge
-1.1
L10
70%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
19.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
19.76
Hit
44.4%
EV+
-23.1%
Edge
+0.3
L10
50%

Rifler
HeCkBNk
FORZE Reload vs Nuclear TigeRES
RISK · UNDER 30.5
▲ L5 34.6 · L20 31.8Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +2
Hit rates at 30.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
55%
11/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
High
±12.46
Previous meeting · vs Nuclear TigeRES
No meeting with Nuclear TigeRES in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
31.8
11/20 hit at 30.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm HeCkBNk is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 30.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 36.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 30 kills or fewer: below 0.801 KPR over ~38 rounds. Main danger: overtime (7.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
29.39
Raw edge
-1.1
Cons. hit
50.4%
EV+
-12.6%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
38.1
Line
30.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
50.4%
-1.2 →
Learned
49.2%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 28.5-32.5
All players · Kills
44.8%286 picks
This player
0%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 53.6% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -1.1 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- High form volatility
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 55.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 8% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (27.15) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 31.2 kills vs line 30.5 (3/10 over). KPR 0.76, HS 67%. Next: vs Nuclear TigeRES, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 31.2 against a 30.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 29.39 vs line 30.5 → -1.11 (-3.6%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 70% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 38.1 rounds · 2-0 54% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.9
HS/Map
10.6
K/D
1.33
KPR
0.76
ADR
79.1
KAST
78.9%
HS%
66.7%
Multi-kill
18%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)11.3 · KPR 0.603 · 19r
Map 2 (Cache)15.8 · KPR 0.835 · 19.1r
Required KPR to clear0.801
Base kills (Maps 1-2)27.39
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.87%
Final projected kills27.15
Nuclear TigeRES gives up (38 series)+0.2% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 30.5. Model: 53.6% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24.1%
~25 kills · 32r73.4%
Normal57.6%
~30 kills · 39r56.2%
Close maps10.5%
~31 kills · 41r51.7%
Overtime7.8%
~36 kills · 47r37.3%
Match context
Oct 24, 02:00 PMOnlineNODWIN Clutch Series 13
Win chance source: Polymarket 36.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
Game scriptIdeal Under range — team 36% to win; the lower the %, the fewer rounds he wins and kills he gets.
M1 Dust2
19r
-15% KPR here
M2 Cache
19.1r
+17% KPR here
Total
38.1r
2-0 sweep54%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)18.3%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.1%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Cache
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 30.5 (Under) · avg 31.2 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
30.5
Nearby lines
| 28.5 Under | 44.6% | below BE |
| 29.5 Under | 46.5% | below BE |
| 30.5 Under | 50.4% | OFFERED |
| 31.5 Under | 52.3% | below BE |
| 32.5 Under | 54.2% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 30.5
Line movement
first 30.5→offno change
- Pulled30.5Oct 24, 02:00 PM
- First seen30.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Dust2
10 maps
Kills
11.8
KPR
0.61
HS%
65.3%
K/D
1.08
Cache
8 maps
Kills
18.4
KPR
0.94
HS%
66%
K/D
1.63
Mirage
8 maps
Kills
18
KPR
0.77
HS%
65.3%
K/D
1.33
Ancient
7 maps
Kills
14.6
KPR
0.72
HS%
66.7%
K/D
1.21
Anubis
5 maps
Kills
17.6
KPR
0.8
HS%
68.2%
K/D
1.38
Nuke
2 maps
Kills
18.5
KPR
0.79
HS%
75.7%
K/D
1.54
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Acend | 12 Ancient 6-13 | 7 Cache 4-13 | 19 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-23 | Sökerorg | 13 Ancient 13-7 | 17 Dust2 13-7 | 30 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-22 | Rune Eaters | 12 Dust2 13-10 | 15 Cache 13-5 | 27 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-22 | Just Players | 39 Mirage 19-16 | 22 Cache 13-5 | 61 | W | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-20 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 9 Dust2 10-13 | 27 Cache 13-11 | 36 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-19 | GenOne | 16 Cache 13-9 | 28 Anubis 16-13 | 44 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-18 | BAKS | 12 Dust2 13-6 | 15 Cache 13-0 | 27 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-17 | Black Phoenix | 12 Anubis 6-13 | 4 Dust2 0-13 | 16 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | Lavked | 17 Ancient 13-6 | 7 Dust2 13-5 | 24 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | Sökerorg | 13 Mirage 13-10 | 15 Dust2 13-6 | 28 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-14 | BET-M | 9 Dust2 13-11 | 23 Anubis 13-10 | 32 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-04 | Spirit Academy | 15 Mirage 13-8 | 10 Ancient 8-13 | 25 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-03 | mellren | 18 Nuke 13-10 | 13 Mirage 13-4 | 31 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-01 | Fire Flux | 10 Anubis 6-13 | 19 Nuke 13-11 | 29 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-26 | Banda Chuya | 15 Anubis 13-7 | 21 Cache 13-9 | 36 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-07 | Nemesis | 17 Mirage 9-13 | 8 Ancient 6-13 | 25 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-23 | MAYBE | 13 Dust2 13-3 | 10 Mirage 13-7 | 23 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-23 | Younglings | 17 Ancient 13-10 | 20 Dust2 13-7 | 37 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-20 | Younglings | 25 Ancient 13-8 | 14 Mirage 13-7 | 39 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-18 | 300FPS | 23 Mirage 16-14 | 24 Cache 13-10 | 47 | W | Over ✗ | OT |







































































































































































