KillsBetter playRisk
Line
35.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
33.53
Hit
48.5%
EV+
-15.9%
Edge
-2.0
L10
60%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
14.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
14.32
Hit
37.1%
EV+
-35.7%
Edge
-0.2
L10
40%
#204Ranked 204 of 277 on the board

AWPer
ZywOo
Vitality vs The MongolZ
RISK · UNDER 35.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP35.5UD35.5SL35.5
▼ L5 32.2 · L20 35.1Risk · Edge -2.0 far below ±3.0LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 35.5 (Under)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
50%
10/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±5.04
Previous meeting · vs The MongolZ
No meeting with The MongolZ in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
35.1
10/20 hit at 35.5
Online
—
no series
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm ZywOo is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 35.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 80.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 35 kills or fewer: below 0.939 KPR over ~38 rounds. Main danger: overtime (7.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
33.53
Raw edge
-2.0
Cons. hit
48.5%
EV+
-15.9%
Rating
1.8/10
Exp. rounds
37.8
Line
35.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
48.5%
+6.3 →
Learned
54.8%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 33.5-37.5
All players · Kills
33.3%9 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 65.2% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -2.0 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 50.0% at this line
- Under risk — team 80% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 50.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 8% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (34.1) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 33.5 kills vs line 35.5 (4/10 over). KPR 0.85, HS 43%. Next: vs The MongolZ, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 33.5 against a 35.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (64%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (64%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 33.53 vs line 35.5 → -1.97 (-5.5%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 60% under this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
- • Expected 37.8 rounds · 2-0 63.5% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
17.57
HS/Map
7.62
K/D
1.47
KPR
0.85
ADR
87.9
KAST
79.1%
HS%
43.4%
Multi-kill
22.2%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Anubis)16.4 · KPR 0.875 · 19.1r
Map 2 (Dust2)17.7 · KPR 0.966 · 18.7r
Required KPR to clear0.939
Base kills (Maps 1-2)34.76
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.91%
Final projected kills34.1
The MongolZ gives up (48 series)-1.9% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 35.5. Model: 65.2% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps33.6%
~28 kills · 32r90.8%
Normal39.7%
~35 kills · 40r51.6%
Close maps18.9%
~36 kills · 40r48.7%
Overtime7.8%
~41 kills · 46r19.5%
Match context
Oct 25, 11:00 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 80.5%
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
Heads upUnder risk — team 80% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Anubis
19.1r
-4% KPR here
M2 Dust2
18.7r
+6% KPR here
Total
37.8r
2-0 sweep63.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)33.6%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Anubis / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 35.5 (Under) · avg 33.5 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
35.5
Nearby lines
| 33.5 Under | 37.3% | below BE |
| 34.5 Under | 44% | below BE |
| 35.5 Under | 48.5% | OFFERED |
| 36.5 Under | 54.6% | below BE |
| 37.5 Under | 59.4% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 35.5
Line movement
first 35.5→35.5no change
- First seen35.5Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Dust2
9 maps
Kills
18
KPR
0.91
HS%
36.4%
K/D
1.8
Anubis
9 maps
Kills
16.2
KPR
0.8
HS%
45.2%
K/D
1.29
Cache
8 maps
Kills
20.1
KPR
0.94
HS%
46.6%
K/D
1.81
Mirage
5 maps
Kills
17.6
KPR
0.84
HS%
43.2%
K/D
1.31
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
17.2
KPR
0.74
HS%
43%
K/D
1.16
Inferno
4 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.72
HS%
50%
K/D
1.36
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | 9z | 16 Mirage 13-10 | 15 Cache 13-10 | 31 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-11 | MOUZ | 21 Cache 13-8 | 18 Inferno 13-7 | 39 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Aurora | 11 Anubis 7-13 | 23 Cache 13-7 | 34 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-09 | PARIVISION | 7 Inferno 13-2 | 26 Dust2 13-10 | 33 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-05 | Falcons | 12 Anubis 9-13 | 12 Dust2 13-4 | 24 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | Natus Vincere | 21 Anubis 13-5 | 7 Nuke 5-13 | 28 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | 1win | 17 Dust2 13-1 | 20 Cache 13-5 | 37 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-20 | Aurora | 18 Anubis 13-4 | 18 Inferno 11-13 | 36 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-20 | FURIA | 20 Cache 13-5 | 22 Anubis 13-8 | 42 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-19 | Aurora | 14 Anubis 7-13 | 17 Inferno 13-11 | 31 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-18 | FURIA | 26 Mirage 13-8 | 13 Dust2 13-5 | 39 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-17 | magic | 11 Mirage 13-6 | 22 Dust2 13-9 | 33 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-05 | MOUZ | 20 Dust2 11-13 | 21 Mirage 7-13 | 41 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-04 | FURIA | 8 Nuke 6-13 | 21 Cache 13-11 | 29 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-31 | FUT | 16 Anubis 13-7 | 18 Dust2 13-8 | 34 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-30 | Legacy | 26 Nuke 16-14 | 14 Mirage 9-13 | 40 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-29 | 9z | 17 Dust2 13-2 | 20 Nuke 13-6 | 37 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-27 | Inner Circle | 11 Anubis 8-13 | 16 Cache 13-16 | 27 | L | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-21 | Spirit | 21 Anubis 11-13 | 25 Nuke 16-14 | 46 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-20 | FaZe | 17 Dust2 13-11 | 25 Cache 13-6 | 42 | W | Over ✗ |








































































































































































