KillsBetter playRisk
Line
30
Pick
OVER
Projection
31.51
Hit
57.5%
EV+
-0.4%
Edge
+1.5
L10
70%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
15.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
15.17
Hit
47.4%
EV+
-17.9%
Edge
-0.3
L10
50%
#59Ranked 59 of 277 on the board

Rifler
dumau
Legacy vs DENDELE
RISK · OVER 30
BEST OVER · PP 30PP30UD31.5
▲ L5 35.0 · L20 31.6Risk · Edge +1.5 far below ±3.0
Hit rates at 30 (Over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
55%
11/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±6.56
Previous meeting · vs DENDELE
No meeting with DENDELE in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
31.6
11/20 hit at 30
Online
—
no series
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm dumau is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 30
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 72.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 31+ kills: 0.719 KPR over ~42 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (57.5%) or blowout (22.3%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
31.51
Raw edge
+1.5
Cons. hit
57.5%
EV+
-0.4%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
41.7
Line
30
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
57.5%
+8.3 →
Learned
65.8%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 28-32
All players · Kills
55.9%270 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 59.1% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +1.5 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Blowout win risk — team 72% to win. A 13-3 stomp means fewer rounds to farm kills; still playable.
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 55.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 57% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (30.02) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 32.0 kills vs line 30.0 (7/10 over). KPR 0.68, HS 48%. Next: vs DENDELE, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 32.0 against a 30.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 31.51 vs line 30 → +1.51 (5.0%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 70% over this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
- • Expected 41.7 rounds · 2-0 57.5% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.82
HS/Map
7.67
K/D
1.06
KPR
0.68
ADR
80.1
KAST
72.7%
HS%
48.5%
Multi-kill
17.1%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)16.8 · KPR 0.773 · 21.8r
Map 2 (Dust2)13.3 · KPR 0.671 · 19.9r
Required KPR to clear0.719
Base kills (Maps 1-2)30.2
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.61%
Final projected kills30.02
DENDELE gives up (26 series)+5.2% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 30. Model: 59.1% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps22.3%
~27 kills · 35r21.8%
Normal51%
~32 kills · 42r56.9%
Close maps16.7%
~34 kills · 45r69.8%
Overtime10%
~38 kills · 51r89.3%
Match context
Oct 25, 05:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 72.5%
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
Heads upBlowout win risk — team 72% to win. A 13-3 stomp means fewer rounds to farm kills; still playable.
M1 Ancient
21.8r
+5% KPR here
M2 Dust2
19.9r
-9% KPR here
Total
41.7r
2-0 sweep57.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)22.3%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 30 (Over) · avg 32.0 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
30
Nearby lines
| 28 Over | 63.2% | |
| 29 Over | 61.4% | |
| 30 Over | 57.5% | OFFERED |
| 31 Over | 50.4% | below BE |
| 32 Over | 46.8% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 30
Line movement
first 30→30no change
- First seen30Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Ancient
11 maps
Kills
17.3
KPR
0.73
HS%
52.1%
K/D
1.09
Dust2
10 maps
Kills
12.9
KPR
0.6
HS%
46.5%
K/D
0.86
Mirage
8 maps
Kills
17.8
KPR
0.79
HS%
40.8%
K/D
1.28
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
16.8
KPR
0.67
HS%
52.4%
K/D
0.98
Inferno
4 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.67
HS%
60.4%
K/D
0.91
Cache
2 maps
Kills
20
KPR
1
HS%
42.5%
K/D
1.82
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Nemiga | 34 Ancient 23-25 | 7 Dust2 8-13 | 41 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-16 | BetBoom | 12 Nuke 13-16 | 19 Dust2 13-11 | 31 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-15 | FURIA | 23 Cache 13-10 | 8 Inferno 5-13 | 31 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | PARIVISION | 13 Dust2 13-11 | 29 Mirage 16-14 | 42 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-06 | M80 | 17 Cache 4-13 | 13 Mirage 13-9 | 30 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-05 | 1win | 14 Dust2 8-13 | 6 Ancient 8-13 | 20 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-04 | ShindeN | 17 Nuke 13-8 | 16 Mirage 13-11 | 33 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-03 | PARIVISION | 14 Dust2 13-5 | 9 Inferno 2-13 | 23 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-13 | G2 | 13 Ancient 13-9 | 20 Mirage 13-10 | 33 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-12 | MIBR | 18 Nuke 13-10 | 18 Ancient 11-13 | 36 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-10 | FURIA | 11 Mirage 13-7 | 20 Ancient 13-9 | 31 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-09 | Alliance | 17 Inferno 13-4 | 13 Dust2 13-6 | 30 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-08 | magic | 16 Ancient 13-7 | 13 Dust2 7-13 | 29 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-30 | Vitality | 22 Nuke 14-16 | 26 Mirage 13-9 | 48 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-29 | Falcons | 15 Mirage 6-13 | 14 Ancient 13-10 | 29 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-27 | FUT | 17 Ancient 13-10 | 16 Dust2 13-11 | 33 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-23 | FURIA | 15 Ancient 9-13 | 15 Nuke 13-9 | 30 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-22 | Spirit | 7 Dust2 7-13 | 19 Ancient 9-13 | 26 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-21 | Falcons | 12 Mirage 13-7 | 13 Dust2 13-10 | 25 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-20 | Natus Vincere | 14 Inferno 13-9 | 18 Ancient 13-2 | 32 | W | Over ✓ | BO |








































































































































































