
Rifler
Tatu
paiN vs Galorys
RISK · OVER 26
▼ L5 19.0 · L20 27.9Risk · Edge +1.8 far below ±3.0 +1
Hit rates at 26 (Over)
L5
20%
1/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
45%
9/20
H2H
0%
0/1
Volatility
High
±14.76
Previous meeting · vs Galorys
0/1 hit · avg 25 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-09-26 · FERJEE In House Season 2
Cache 13-9 · Dust2 13-5 · W
25
Under 26 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
23.4
3/9 hit at 26
Online
31.6
6/11 hit at 26
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Tatu is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 26
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 59.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 27+ kills: 0.574 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (53%) or blowout (29.4%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
27.82
Raw edge
+1.8
Cons. hit
51.5%
EV+
-10.8%
Rating
1.2/10
Exp. rounds
45.3
Line
26
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
51.5%
+8.6 →
Learned
60.1%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 24-28
All players · Kills
56.7%201 picks
This player
100%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 54.9% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +1.8 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- High form volatility
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 40.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 45.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 45.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 53% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (31.6) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 27.8 kills vs line 26.0 (4/10 over). KPR 0.63, HS 64%. Next: vs Galorys, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 27.8 against a 26.0 line
Biggest risk: 28% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 28% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 27.82 vs line 26 → +1.82 (7.0%)
- • Form L5 20% · L10 40% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 45.3 rounds · 2-0 53% · OT 12.2%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.97
HS/Map
8.97
K/D
0.99
KPR
0.63
ADR
69
KAST
72.8%
HS%
64.2%
Multi-kill
15.5%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)14.4 · KPR 0.658 · 22r
Map 2 (Anubis)17.2 · KPR 0.746 · 23.3r
Required KPR to clear0.574
Base kills (Maps 1-2)31.86
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.82%
Final projected kills31.6
Galorys gives up (77 series)-4.4% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 26. Model: 54.9% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps29.4%
~23 kills · 38r34.3%
Normal39.8%
~29 kills · 46r49.1%
Close maps18.6%
~30 kills · 49r52.8%
Overtime12.2%
~33 kills · 55r62.6%
Match context
Oct 24, 06:00 PMLANCircuit X Curitiba 4
Win chance source: Polymarket 59.0%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 59% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Dust2
22r
+4% KPR here
M2 Anubis
23.3r
+18% KPR here
Total
45.3r
2-0 sweep53%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime12.2%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)29.4%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Anubis
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 26 (Over) · avg 27.8 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
26
Nearby lines
| 24 Over | 59.6% | |
| 25 Over | 55% | below BE |
| 26 Over | 51.5% | OFFERED |
| 27 Over | 47.9% | below BE |
| 28 Over | 46.2% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 26
Line movement
first 26→offno change
- Pulled26Oct 24, 06:00 PM
- Back on board26 → 26Oct 24, 05:12 AM
- Pulled26Oct 24, 05:11 AM
- First seen26Oct 24, 05:11 AM
Map stats
Dust2
10 maps
Kills
13.9
KPR
0.67
HS%
69.1%
K/D
1.04
Anubis
9 maps
Kills
17.7
KPR
0.78
HS%
63.5%
K/D
1.2
Cache
8 maps
Kills
11.6
KPR
0.51
HS%
67.7%
K/D
0.73
Mirage
7 maps
Kills
13.1
KPR
0.63
HS%
52.2%
K/D
1.01
Inferno
4 maps
Kills
12.2
KPR
0.63
HS%
67.3%
K/D
0.83
Nuke
2 maps
Kills
13.5
KPR
0.82
HS%
66.7%
K/D
1.5
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | Imperial | 9 Inferno 3-13 | 18 Anubis 16-14 | 27 | Split | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-21 | Fluxo | 8 Cache 7-13 | 9 Dust2 13-9 | 17 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-21 | BARCA | 4 Inferno 2-13 | 9 Dust2 13-7 | 13 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-27 | Imperial | 6 Anubis 4-13 | 7 Cache 11-13 | 13 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | Galorys | 14 Cache 13-9 | 11 Dust2 13-5 | 25 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-24 | Bounty Hunters | 10 Cache 13-7 | 19 Dust2 13-3 | 29 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-23 | Turma do Pagode | 13 Anubis 13-10 | 13 Dust2 13-10 | 26 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-18 | Fluxo | 18 Anubis 10-13 | 18 Mirage 13-10 | 36 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-16 | Turma do Pagode | 10 Dust2 13-11 | 15 Anubis 13-6 | 25 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-03 | Yawara | 28 Dust2 16-13 | 39 Anubis 16-19 | 67 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-01 | Grêmio | 11 Mirage 13-9 | 15 Inferno 11-13 | 26 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-30 | DAMAJUANA | 13 Mirage 13-4 | 19 Nuke 13-4 | 32 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-26 | Isurus | 12 Mirage 13-6 | 21 Inferno 10-13 | 33 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-25 | Imperial | 9 Mirage 6-13 | 8 Nuke 3-13 | 17 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-25 | Peladona | 9 Dust2 3-13 | 22 Mirage 14-16 | 31 | L | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-16 | QUINTESSÊNCIA | 14 Cache 10-13 | 11 Anubis 13-4 | 25 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-15 | ALKA | 7 Cache 7-13 | 23 Dust2 8-13 | 30 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-14 | METANOIA Wolves | 8 Dust2 13-7 | 17 Cache 13-11 | 25 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-10 | QUINTESSÊNCIA | 16 Cache 16-13 | 22 Anubis 13-7 | 38 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-10 | Keyd Stars | 17 Anubis 6-13 | 7 Mirage 13-3 | 24 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |







































































































































































