KillsRisk
Line
25.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
23.48
Hit
50%
EV+
-13.4%
Edge
-2.0
L10
40%
HeadshotsBetter playLean
Line
8.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
6.36
Hit
63.1%
EV+
+9.3%
Edge
-2.1
L10
60%
#165Ranked 165 of 277 on the board

AWPer
maxxkor
DENDELE vs Legacy
RISK · UNDER 25.5
BEST UNDER · UD 26.5PP25.5UD26.5SL26.5
▼ L5 24.2 · L20 27.4Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 25.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
44%
8/18
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±7.24
Previous meeting · vs Legacy
No meeting with Legacy in his last 18 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
28.3
6/13 hit at 25.5
Online
25.2
2/5 hit at 25.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm maxxkor is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 25.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 27.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 25 kills or fewer: below 0.63 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (11%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
23.48
Raw edge
-2.0
Cons. hit
50%
EV+
-13.4%
Rating
1.7/10
Exp. rounds
40.5
Line
25.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
50%
-8.7 →
Learned
41.3%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 23.5-27.5
All players · Kills
43%207 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 61% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -2.0 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 40.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 44.4% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 18 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 44.4% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 11% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (23.18) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 27.8 kills vs line 25.5 (6/10 over). KPR 0.64, HS 29%. Next: vs Legacy, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 27.8 against a 25.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 23.48 vs line 25.5 → -2.02 (-7.9%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 40% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 40.5 rounds · 2-0 57.5% · OT 11%
Performance (last 36 maps)
Kills/Map
13.72
HS/Map
3.92
K/D
1.07
KPR
0.64
ADR
67.5
KAST
75.8%
HS%
28.5%
Multi-kill
13.2%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)12.6 · KPR 0.593 · 21.4r
Map 2 (Cache)10.6 · KPR 0.556 · 19.1r
Required KPR to clear0.63
Base kills (Maps 1-2)23.32
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.63%
Final projected kills23.18
Legacy gives up (79 series)-4.3% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 25.5. Model: 61% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps23.8%
~20 kills · 34r82.9%
Normal51.7%
~24 kills · 41r63%
Close maps13.5%
~25 kills · 43r54.9%
Overtime11%
~29 kills · 49r35.9%
Match context
Oct 25, 05:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 27.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
Game scriptIdeal Under range — team 28% to win; the lower the %, the fewer rounds he wins and kills he gets.
M1 Mirage
21.4r
-2% KPR here
M2 Cache
19.1r
-8% KPR here
Total
40.5r
2-0 sweep57.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)24.5%
Overtime11%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)23.8%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Cache
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 25.5 (Under) · avg 27.8 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
25.5
Nearby lines
| 23.5 Under | 43.5% | below BE |
| 24.5 Under | 46.8% | below BE |
| 25.5 Under | 50% | OFFERED |
| 26.5 Under | 53% | below BE |
| 27.5 Under | 57.4% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 25.5
Line movement
first 25.5→25.5no change
- First seen25.5Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Mirage
9 maps
Kills
14.2
KPR
0.63
HS%
31.2%
K/D
1.06
Cache
8 maps
Kills
11.2
KPR
0.57
HS%
32.2%
K/D
0.91
Inferno
5 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.63
HS%
22.4%
K/D
0.97
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
8.8
KPR
0.48
HS%
38.6%
K/D
0.76
Ancient
5 maps
Kills
18.2
KPR
0.79
HS%
24.2%
K/D
1.4
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
16.2
KPR
0.81
HS%
24.6%
K/D
1.62
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | FURIA | 8 Ancient 8-13 | 13 Inferno 11-13 | 21 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-11 | Wildcard | 11 Mirage 13-4 | 7 Nuke 8-13 | 18 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-11 | Imperial | 9 Mirage 13-8 | 13 Inferno 13-11 | 22 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Wildcard | 18 Mirage 13-16 | 9 Cache 3-13 | 27 | L | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-27 | M80 | 15 Inferno 13-7 | 18 Anubis 9-13 | 33 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | Wildcard | 22 Mirage 13-11 | 10 Nuke 10-13 | 32 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | M80 | 17 Mirage 13-9 | 24 Ancient 16-13 | 41 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-25 | Voca | 25 Ancient 13-7 | 11 Cache 13-7 | 36 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-02 | Color | 10 Mirage 8-13 | 10 Cache 13-6 | 20 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-02 | EYEBALLERS | 14 Ancient 11-13 | 14 Cache 13-3 | 28 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | Aurora | 9 Cache 7-13 | 14 Mirage 12-16 | 23 | L | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-26 | Spirit | 20 Ancient 8-13 | 14 Cache 7-13 | 34 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-09 | JiJieHao | 15 Inferno 14-16 | 8 Cache 13-9 | 23 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-07 | SAW | 20 Inferno 13-10 | 13 Anubis 13-10 | 33 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-07 | QueenConso | 9 Nuke 13-0 | 16 Anubis 13-3 | 25 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-25 | FaZe | 4 Nuke 2-13 | 15 Mirage 13-10 | 19 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-24 | FURIA | 18 Anubis 13-6 | 12 Mirage 6-13 | 30 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-07-11 | paiN | 15 Cache 13-11 | 14 Nuke 13-7 | 29 | W | Over ✗ |








































































































































































