KillsBetter playRisk
Line
23
Pick
UNDER
Projection
21.62
Hit
48.3%
EV+
-16.3%
Edge
-1.4
L10
60%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
12.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
12.44
Hit
47.5%
EV+
-17.7%
Edge
-0.1
L10
70%

Rifler · IGL
JT
Team Liquid vs MOUZ
RISK · UNDER 12.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP12.5UD12.5
▲ L5 13.6 · L20 11.4Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +2
Hit rates at 12.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
79%
11/14
H2H
0%
0/1
Volatility
High
±6.08
Previous meeting · vs MOUZ
0/1 hit · avg 27 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-24 · PGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Ancient 13-16 · Inferno 16-12 · Split
27
Over 12.5 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN
11.4
11/14 hit at 12.5
Online · this match
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Veto confirmed — re-check map order
- Confirm JT is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 12.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
underdog · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 12 HS or fewer (under ~23 kills at 56.1% HS): below 0.501 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: overtime (10.6%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
12.44
Raw edge
-0.1
Cons. hit
47.5%
EV+
-17.7%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
44.5
Line
12.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
47.5%
-1.3 →
Learned
46.2%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 10.5-14.5
All players · Headshots
40.2%189 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 50.4% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.1 below ±2.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- High form volatility
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 14 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 78.6% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 11% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (11.94) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 12.7 headshots vs line 10.5 (7/10 over). KPR 0.52, HS 56%. Next: vs MOUZ, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 12.7 against a 10.5 line
Biggest risk: 36% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 36% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 12.44 vs line 12.5 → -0.06 (-0.5%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 70% under this line
- • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
- • Expected 44.5 rounds · 2-0 50% · OT 10.6%
Performance (last 28 maps)
Kills/Map
10.18
HS/Map
5.71
K/D
0.78
KPR
0.52
ADR
61.5
KAST
73.6%
HS%
56.1%
Multi-kill
10.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)6.2 · KPR 0.476 · 23.4r
Map 2 (Inferno)5.8 · KPR 0.493 · 21.1r
Required KPR to clear0.501
Base kills (Maps 1-2)21.54
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.20%
Final projected kills21.28
× realistic HS% (56.1%)12.44
MOUZ gives up (78 series)-5.3% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 12.5. Model: 50.4% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps33.3%
~10 HS · 37r69.2%
Normal53.4%
~13 HS · 47r50.9%
Close maps2.7%
~13 HS · 48r49.7%
Overtime10.6%
~15 HS · 54r38.9%
Match context
Oct 24, 10:00 AMOnline
Win chance source: —
Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
M1 Ancient
23.4r
-8% KPR here
M2 Inferno
21.1r
-5% KPR here
Total
44.5r
2-0 sweep50%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)13.3%
Overtime10.6%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)33.3%
Veto confirmed (HLTV): Ancient / Inferno
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 12.5 (Under) · avg 12.7 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
12.5
Nearby lines
| 10.5 Under | 32.6% | below BE |
| 11.5 Under | 40% | below BE |
| 12.5 Under | 47.5% | OFFERED |
| 13.5 Under | 51.2% | below BE |
| 14.5 Under | 54.7% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 12.5
Line movement
first 10.5→12.5+2
- Moved up11.5 → 12.5Oct 24, 08:55 PM
- Back on board10.5 → 11.5Oct 24, 08:14 PM
- Pulled10.5Oct 24, 10:11 AM
- First seen10.5Oct 23, 12:41 PM
Map stats
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
10
KPR
0.48
HS%
68.3%
K/D
0.87
Cache
5 maps
Kills
11
KPR
0.55
HS%
54.5%
K/D
0.93
Dust2
5 maps
Kills
10.4
KPR
0.55
HS%
50%
K/D
0.83
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
9.2
KPR
0.47
HS%
62.2%
K/D
0.65
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
11.8
KPR
0.52
HS%
48.9%
K/D
0.81
Nuke
3 maps
Kills
8
KPR
0.52
HS%
45.8%
K/D
0.65
Ancient
1 maps
Kills
10
KPR
0.34
HS%
60%
K/D
0.48
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | MOUZ | 6 Ancient 13-16 | 21 Inferno 16-12 | 27 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-20 | magic | 4 Anubis 10-13 | 4 Dust2 10-13 | 8 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-19 | fnatic | 0 Inferno 7-13 | 4 Cache 4-13 | 4 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 7 Mirage 13-9 | 4 Nuke 10-13 | 11 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-13 | JiJieHao | 9 Mirage 13-11 | 9 Cache 13-2 | 18 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-13 | 100 Thieves | 1 Dust2 0-13 | 11 Inferno 13-8 | 12 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-13 | BBL | 7 Nuke 9-13 | 5 Mirage 13-8 | 12 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Wildcard | 1 Inferno 13-4 | 7 Anubis 13-9 | 8 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | M80 | 7 Cache 16-13 | 4 Anubis 13-2 | 11 | W | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-25 | NRG | 14 Dust2 13-11 | 2 Mirage 13-10 | 16 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | Chicken Coop | 5 Inferno 13-3 | 3 Cache 13-4 | 8 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-09 | 1win | 3 Dust2 5-13 | 8 Anubis 13-6 | 11 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-08 | Metizport | 7 Cache 13-9 | 3 Inferno 13-10 | 10 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-07 | Dhala | 4 Dust2 13-4 | 0 Nuke 0-1 | 4 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |







































































































































































