KillsRisk
Line
32.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
33.86
Hit
55.6%
EV+
-3.8%
Edge
+1.4
L10
60%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
12.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
13.31
Hit
58.4%
EV+
+1.2%
Edge
+0.8
L10
60%
#49Ranked 49 of 277 on the board

AWPer
w0nderful
Natus Vincere vs FURIA
RISK · OVER 12.5
BEST OVER · UD 11.5PP12.5UD11.5SL12.5
▲ L5 14.2 · L20 13.5Risk · Edge +0.8 far below ±2.0
Hit rates at 12.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
60%
12/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±3.35
Previous meeting · vs FURIA
No meeting with FURIA in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
13.5
12/20 hit at 12.5
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm w0nderful is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 12.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 43.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 13+ HS (~31 kills at 41.5% HS): 0.715 KPR over ~42 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (52.5%) or blowout (26.4%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
13.31
Raw edge
+0.8
Cons. hit
58.4%
EV+
+1.2%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
42.1
Line
12.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
58.4%
+8.2 →
Learned
66.6%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 10.5-14.5
All players · Headshots
59.8%189 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 59.5% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +0.8 below ±2.0 minimum
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 60.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 52% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (12.92) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 13.6 headshots vs line 12.5 (6/10 over). KPR 0.78, HS 42%. Next: vs FURIA, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 13.6 against a 12.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
- • Model 13.31 vs line 12.5 → +0.81 (6.5%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 60% over this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
- • Expected 42.1 rounds · 2-0 52.5% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
16.25
HS/Map
6.75
K/D
1.27
KPR
0.78
ADR
74.6
KAST
75.9%
HS%
41.5%
Multi-kill
20.1%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)6.5 · KPR 0.743 · 21.2r
Map 2 (Nuke)6.4 · KPR 0.748 · 20.9r
Required KPR to clear0.715
Base kills (Maps 1-2)31.38
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.79%
Final projected kills31.14
× realistic HS% (41.5%)13.31
FURIA gives up (117 series)-8.4% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 12.5. Model: 59.5% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps26.4%
~11 HS · 35r33.3%
Normal46.9%
~14 HS · 43r59.4%
Close maps16.7%
~14 HS · 45r65.9%
Overtime10%
~16 HS · 51r80.9%
Match context
Oct 25, 05:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 43.5%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 44% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Inferno
21.2r
-4% KPR here
M2 Nuke
20.9r
-4% KPR here
Total
42.1r
2-0 sweep52.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)26.4%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Inferno / Nuke
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 12.5 (Over) · avg 13.6 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
12.5
Nearby lines
| 10.5 Over | 66% | |
| 11.5 Over | 63.6% | |
| 12.5 Over | 58.4% | OFFERED |
| 13.5 Over | 50% | below BE |
| 14.5 Over | 39.1% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 12.5
Line movement
first 12.5→12.5no change
- First seen12.5Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Inferno
9 maps
Kills
15.4
KPR
0.73
HS%
43.9%
K/D
1.34
Nuke
7 maps
Kills
15.1
KPR
0.74
HS%
44.3%
K/D
1.36
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
13.7
KPR
0.64
HS%
41.5%
K/D
0.9
Mirage
5 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.71
HS%
45.7%
K/D
1.08
Anubis
5 maps
Kills
20.2
KPR
0.9
HS%
40.6%
K/D
1.51
Dust2
4 maps
Kills
17.8
KPR
0.75
HS%
36.6%
K/D
1.13
Cache
4 maps
Kills
20.2
KPR
0.95
HS%
35.8%
K/D
1.93
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | G2 | 7 Nuke 13-11 | 12 Dust2 22-19 | 19 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-07 | PARIVISION | 6 Inferno 13-8 | 6 Cache 10-13 | 12 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-06 | Falcons | 9 Inferno 6-13 | 9 Anubis 19-15 | 18 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-05 | 9z | 4 Nuke 13-6 | 5 Cache 13-6 | 9 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-04 | Vitality | 8 Anubis 5-13 | 5 Nuke 13-5 | 13 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | G2 | 8 Cache 13-7 | 6 Inferno 13-4 | 14 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-18 | MOUZ | 10 Cache 13-10 | 4 Inferno 10-13 | 14 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-17 | Aurora | 3 Nuke 8-13 | 8 Mirage 7-13 | 11 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-30 | G2 | 6 Ancient 6-13 | 3 Inferno 10-13 | 9 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-28 | paiN | 12 Nuke 13-9 | 5 Mirage 13-11 | 17 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-26 | M80 | 5 Anubis 13-4 | 6 Mirage 6-13 | 11 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-20 | Legacy | 12 Inferno 9-13 | 3 Ancient 2-13 | 15 | L | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-15 | The MongolZ | 7 Inferno 13-5 | 4 Ancient 9-13 | 11 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-06-15 | G2 | 8 Dust2 13-11 | 7 Inferno 14-16 | 15 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-06-14 | Falcons | 3 Dust2 3-13 | 6 Mirage 13-7 | 9 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-06-13 | The MongolZ | 7 Nuke 8-13 | 6 Ancient 16-13 | 13 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-06-12 | Legacy | 7 Inferno 13-4 | 7 Ancient 13-10 | 14 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-11 | Spirit | 3 Dust2 1-13 | 6 Anubis 8-13 | 9 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-05-17 | GamerLegion | 7 Mirage 13-3 | 13 Anubis 13-9 | 20 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-05-16 | BetBoom | 8 Ancient 13-8 | 9 Nuke 13-6 | 17 | W | Over ✓ |








































































































































































