KillsBetter playRisk
Line
28.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
30.62
Hit
56.5%
EV+
-2.1%
Edge
+2.1
L10
50%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
14
Pick
OVER
Projection
14.31
Hit
50.8%
EV+
-12.0%
Edge
+0.3
L10
40%

Rifler
destiny
Galorys vs paiN
RISK · OVER 28.5
▼ L5 26.6 · L20 30.9Risk · Edge +2.1 far below ±3.0
Hit rates at 28.5 (Over)
L5
20%
1/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
50%
10/20
H2H
0%
0/1
Volatility
Medium
±8
Previous meeting · vs paiN
0/1 hit · avg 22 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-09-26 · FERJEE In House Season 2
Cache 9-13 · Dust2 5-13 · L
22
Under 28.5 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
27.2
2/6 hit at 28.5
Online
32.4
8/14 hit at 28.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm destiny is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 28.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 41.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 29+ kills: 0.628 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (53%) or blowout (22.7%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
30.62
Raw edge
+2.1
Cons. hit
56.5%
EV+
-2.1%
Rating
4.8/10
Exp. rounds
45.4
Line
28.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
56.5%
-2.5 →
Learned
54%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 26.5-30.5
All players · Kills
53.6%334 picks
This player
33.3%3 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 60.4% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +2.1 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 50.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 50.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 53% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (32.34) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 30.7 kills vs line 28.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.73, HS 48%. Next: vs paiN, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 30.7 against a 28.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 30.62 vs line 28.5 → +2.12 (7.4%)
- • Form L5 20% · L10 50% over this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
- • Expected 45.4 rounds · 2-0 53% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.43
HS/Map
7.42
K/D
1.05
KPR
0.73
ADR
77.8
KAST
76.6%
HS%
48.1%
Multi-kill
18.2%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)16.7 · KPR 0.738 · 22.7r
Map 2 (Inferno)15.7 · KPR 0.694 · 22.7r
Required KPR to clear0.628
Base kills (Maps 1-2)32.51
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.51%
Final projected kills32.34
paiN gives up (81 series)-3.7% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 28.5. Model: 60.4% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps22.7%
~26 kills · 38r32.1%
Normal50.6%
~31 kills · 46r60.7%
Close maps16.7%
~33 kills · 49r70%
Overtime10%
~37 kills · 55r85.1%
Match context
Oct 24, 06:00 PMLANCircuit X Curitiba 4
Win chance source: Polymarket 41.0%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 41% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Ancient
22.7r
+2% KPR here
M2 Inferno
22.7r
-5% KPR here
Total
45.4r
2-0 sweep53%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)22.7%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Inferno
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 28.5 (Over) · avg 30.7 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
28.5
Nearby lines
| 26.5 Over | 63% | |
| 27.5 Over | 58.8% | |
| 28.5 Over | 56.5% | OFFERED |
| 29.5 Over | 51.9% | below BE |
| 30.5 Over | 46.9% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 28.5
Line movement
first 28.5→offno change
- Pulled28.5Oct 24, 06:00 PM
- Back on board28.5 → 28.5Oct 24, 05:12 AM
- Pulled28.5Oct 24, 05:11 AM
- First seen28.5Oct 24, 05:11 AM
Map stats
Ancient
16 maps
Kills
16.9
KPR
0.74
HS%
47.2%
K/D
1.11
Inferno
9 maps
Kills
15.8
KPR
0.68
HS%
47.2%
K/D
1.01
Anubis
5 maps
Kills
11.8
KPR
0.59
HS%
49.2%
K/D
0.95
Dust2
5 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.8
HS%
57.9%
K/D
1.31
Cache
3 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.64
HS%
43.6%
K/D
0.87
Nuke
2 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.64
HS%
40%
K/D
0.81
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | BESTIA | 9 Ancient 9-13 | 18 Inferno 11-13 | 27 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-21 | Fluxo | 16 Anubis 13-9 | 14 Inferno 9-13 | 30 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-21 | BARCA | 10 Inferno 6-13 | 17 Ancient 13-6 | 27 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-21 | Fluxo | 6 Anubis 8-13 | 18 Inferno 16-14 | 24 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-14 | LP | 11 Inferno 5-13 | 14 Ancient 13-3 | 25 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-13 | ex-Keyd Stars | 21 Dust2 13-6 | 31 Ancient 16-14 | 52 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-12 | Bounty Hunters | 15 Cache 13-6 | 18 Ancient 9-13 | 33 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-11 | Yawara | 15 Anubis 13-4 | 9 Ancient 13-2 | 24 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-10 | MEIA NOITE | 16 Dust2 8-13 | 20 Ancient 13-6 | 36 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-09 | Turma do Pagode | 15 Ancient 13-10 | 14 Nuke 13-11 | 29 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-07 | Grêmio | 17 Inferno 11-13 | 31 Ancient 25-28 | 48 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-04 | Turma do Pagode | 12 Anubis 13-4 | 16 Nuke 10-13 | 28 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | Procyon | 15 Inferno 13-4 | 12 Ancient 13-6 | 27 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | BESTIA Academy | 22 Dust2 13-6 | 9 Ancient 13-7 | 31 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-02 | Grêmio | 19 Inferno 19-16 | 15 Ancient 13-9 | 34 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-28 | Turma do Pagode | 10 Anubis 10-13 | 10 Ancient 7-13 | 20 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Procyon | 20 Inferno 6-13 | 19 Ancient 13-9 | 39 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Bounty Hunters | 10 Cache 7-13 | 23 Ancient 13-8 | 33 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-26 | paiN | 14 Cache 9-13 | 8 Dust2 5-13 | 22 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-25 | METANOIA Wolves | 9 Dust2 13-5 | 19 Ancient 13-10 | 28 | W | Under ✗ | BO |








































































































































































