KillsRisk
Line
30.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
32.54
Hit
60.6%
EV+
+4.9%
Edge
+2.0
L10
60%
HeadshotsBetter playPlayable
Line
18
Pick
OVER
Projection
20.17
Hit
65.4%
EV+
+13.3%
Edge
+2.2
L10
70%

Rifler
cronuss
Color vs ex-Zero Tenacity
RISK · OVER 30.5
PP30.5
≈ L5 32.2 · L20 31.9Risk · Edge +2.0 far below ±3.0
Hit rates at 30.5 (Over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
60%
12/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±4.94
Previous meeting · vs ex-Zero Tenacity
No meeting with ex-Zero Tenacity in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
31.9
12/20 hit at 30.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm cronuss is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 30.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 50.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 31+ kills: 0.62 KPR over ~49 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (55.5%) or blowout (17.8%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
32.54
Raw edge
+2.0
Cons. hit
60.6%
EV+
+4.9%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
49.2
Line
30.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
60.6%
-8.6 →
Learned
52%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 28.5-32.5
All players · Kills
55.2%286 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 66% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +2.0 below ±3.0 minimum
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 60.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 56% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (32.68) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 30.8 kills vs line 30.5 (6/10 over). KPR 0.68, HS 62%. Next: vs ex-Zero Tenacity, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 30.8 against a 30.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
- • Model 32.54 vs line 30.5 → +2.04 (6.7%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 60% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 49.2 rounds · 2-0 55.5% · OT 16.7%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.95
HS/Map
9.93
K/D
0.91
KPR
0.68
ADR
77.8
KAST
68.9%
HS%
62.2%
Multi-kill
17.8%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)16.8 · KPR 0.674 · 24.8r
Map 2 (Mirage)15.9 · KPR 0.648 · 24.4r
Required KPR to clear0.62
Base kills (Maps 1-2)32.53
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.48%
Final projected kills32.68
ex-Zero Tenacity gives up (62 series)-2.5% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 30.5. Model: 66% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps17.8%
~27 kills · 41r27%
Normal51.4%
~32 kills · 48r56.9%
Close maps14.1%
~35 kills · 53r75.8%
Overtime16.7%
~39 kills · 59r90.7%
Match context
Oct 25, 06:00 PMOnlineNODWIN Clutch Series 13
Win chance source: Polymarket 50.0%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 50% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Dust2
24.8r
M2 Mirage
24.4r
-4% KPR here
Total
49.2r
2-0 sweep55.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime16.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)17.8%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 30.5 (Over) · avg 30.8 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
30.5
Nearby lines
| 28.5 Over | 65.7% | |
| 29.5 Over | 63.9% | |
| 30.5 Over | 60.6% | OFFERED |
| 31.5 Over | 55.4% | below BE |
| 32.5 Over | 48.7% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 30.5
Line movement
first 30.5→30.5no change
- First seen30.5Oct 24, 08:30 PM
Map stats
Dust2
14 maps
Kills
16.4
KPR
0.67
HS%
62.9%
K/D
0.87
Mirage
8 maps
Kills
15.4
KPR
0.64
HS%
62.6%
K/D
0.82
Cache
6 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.77
HS%
65.6%
K/D
0.95
Inferno
5 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.71
HS%
61.5%
K/D
0.94
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
19.5
KPR
0.77
HS%
56.4%
K/D
0.97
Ancient
3 maps
Kills
17.7
KPR
0.91
HS%
62.3%
K/D
1.26
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | Nemiga | 11 Cache 5-13 | 21 Dust2 13-9 | 32 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | WW | 18 Dust2 13-8 | 21 Mirage 16-14 | 39 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-20 | UPGRADE | 23 Anubis 16-14 | 11 Mirage 13-10 | 34 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-18 | SPARTA | 12 Dust2 13-11 | 11 Mirage 16-13 | 23 | W | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-14 | Sashi | 15 Dust2 13-6 | 18 Cache 10-13 | 33 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-13 | INOX Division | 10 Inferno 13-4 | 20 Dust2 16-14 | 30 | W | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-12 | SPARTA | 23 Inferno 13-7 | 12 Dust2 11-13 | 35 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-08 | Nemiga | 13 Dust2 13-16 | 18 Anubis 6-13 | 31 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-03 | HEROIC | 10 Dust2 6-13 | 12 Inferno 5-13 | 22 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-02 | DENDELE | 16 Mirage 13-8 | 13 Cache 6-13 | 29 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-02 | B8 | 23 Dust2 11-13 | 24 Mirage 13-9 | 47 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-01 | Nuclear TigeRES | 9 Dust2 13-9 | 10 Inferno 2-13 | 19 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | HYPERSPIRIT | 18 Cache 13-7 | 18 Cache 13-7 | 36 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-25 | Butterfly | 19 Ancient 13-2 | 17 Dust2 13-11 | 36 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-24 | EAC | 17 Ancient 13-8 | 11 Anubis 14-16 | 28 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-23 | SPARTA | 33 Dust2 19-22 | 10 Mirage 8-13 | 43 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-21 | Inner Circle Academy | 15 Dust2 13-4 | 26 Anubis 13-9 | 41 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-20 | SPARTA | 11 Dust2 13-11 | 12 Cache 4-13 | 23 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-20 | Metizport | 12 Mirage 11-13 | 10 Inferno 13-8 | 22 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-19 | EAC | 17 Ancient 9-13 | 18 Mirage 13-10 | 35 | Split | Over ✓ |








































































































































































