KillsBetter playTake
Line
24.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
28.76
Hit
62.7%
EV+
+8.5%
Edge
+4.3
L10
60%
HeadshotsLean
Line
12
Pick
OVER
Projection
13.55
Hit
57.1%
EV+
-1.2%
Edge
+1.6
L10
40%

Rifler
NickelBack
FORZE Reload vs Nuclear TigeRES
LEAN · OVER 12
▼ L5 13.0 · L20 14.0
Hit rates at 12 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
55%
11/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±3.58
Previous meeting · vs Nuclear TigeRES
No meeting with Nuclear TigeRES in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
14
11/20 hit at 12
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm NickelBack is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 12
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 36.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Needs 13+ HS (~27 kills at 48.4% HS): 0.552 KPR over ~45 rounds. His Kills line is 24.5: backing Kills Over needs ~2 fewer kills, usually the easier play. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (54%) or blowout (24.1%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
13.55
Raw edge
+1.6
Cons. hit
57.1%
EV+
-1.2%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
44.9
Line
12
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
57.1%
+3.1 →
Learned
60.2%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 10-14
All players · Headshots
59.7%134 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 66.7% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +1.5 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 40.0% at this line
- Near the blowout zone — team 36% to win (ideal for Overs: 40-70%).
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 55.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 54% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (13.79) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 12.6 headshots vs line 12.0 (4/10 over). KPR 0.61, HS 48%. Next: vs Nuclear TigeRES, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 12.6 against a 12.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 13.55 vs line 12 → +1.55 (12.9%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 40% over this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 44.9 rounds · 2-0 54% · OT 16.7%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.45
HS/Map
7
K/D
0.96
KPR
0.61
ADR
73.3
KAST
73.3%
HS%
48.4%
Multi-kill
13.6%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)6.3 · KPR 0.595 · 21.8r
Map 2 (Mirage)7.5 · KPR 0.671 · 23.1r
Required KPR to clear0.552
Base kills (Maps 1-2)28.48
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.02%
Final projected kills28.48
× realistic HS% (48.4%)13.55
Nuclear TigeRES gives up (38 series)-4.4% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 12. Model: 66.7% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24.1%
~11 HS · 38r35.5%
Normal49.2%
~14 HS · 45r58.5%
Close maps10%
~15 HS · 48r68.3%
Overtime16.7%
~16 HS · 54r82%
Match context
Oct 24, 02:00 PMOnline
Win chance source: Polymarket 36.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
Heads upNear the blowout zone — team 36% to win (ideal for Overs: 40-70%).
M1 Dust2
21.8r
+3% KPR here
M2 Mirage
23.1r
+16% KPR here
Total
44.9r
2-0 sweep54%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime16.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.1%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 12 (Over) · avg 12.6 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
12
Nearby lines
| 10 Over | 65.1% | |
| 11 Over | 62.3% | |
| 12 Over | 57.1% | OFFERED |
| 13 Over | 51.1% | below BE |
| 14 Over | 44.4% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 12
Line movement
first 12→offno change
- Pulled12Oct 24, 02:00 PM
- First seen12Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Dust2
19 maps
Kills
14.6
KPR
0.64
HS%
54.9%
K/D
0.94
Mirage
7 maps
Kills
19.1
KPR
0.76
HS%
43.3%
K/D
1.09
Cache
6 maps
Kills
12.8
KPR
0.69
HS%
40.3%
K/D
1.28
Ancient
4 maps
Kills
14.2
KPR
0.59
HS%
42.1%
K/D
0.85
Inferno
3 maps
Kills
8.7
KPR
0.38
HS%
42.3%
K/D
0.58
Nuke
1 maps
Kills
7
KPR
0.39
HS%
57.1%
K/D
0.47
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | FORZE Reload | 6 Ancient 13-7 | 3 Dust2 13-7 | 9 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-22 | FORZE Reload | 11 Mirage 19-16 | 9 Cache 13-5 | 20 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-20 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 6 Dust2 10-13 | 4 Cache 13-11 | 10 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-18 | FORZE Reload | 10 Dust2 13-6 | 5 Cache 13-0 | 15 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | FOKUS | 9 Dust2 16-14 | 2 Cache 7-13 | 11 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-23 | Just Players | 8 Dust2 13-10 | 8 Mirage 13-3 | 16 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-21 | BRUTE | 5 Dust2 10-13 | 3 Mirage 7-13 | 8 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-20 | INOX Division | 8 Dust2 13-11 | 2 Inferno 16-12 | 10 | W | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-18 | Color | 5 Dust2 11-13 | 7 Mirage 13-16 | 12 | L | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-16 | BAKS | 9 Ancient 16-19 | 6 Dust2 13-5 | 15 | Split | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-12 | Color | 3 Inferno 7-13 | 6 Dust2 13-11 | 9 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-09 | Leo | 6 Dust2 13-7 | 4 Nuke 5-13 | 10 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-06 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 7 Cache 13-6 | 7 Dust2 13-2 | 14 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-04 | HAVU | 8 Dust2 13-6 | 12 Mirage 20-19 | 20 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-29 | Honvéd | 8 Mirage 13-4 | 7 Dust2 13-7 | 15 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | Inner Circle Academy | 4 Ancient 7-13 | 8 Dust2 13-9 | 12 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-26 | INOX Division | 9 Dust2 11-13 | 6 Inferno 13-7 | 15 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-23 | Color | 13 Dust2 22-19 | 9 Mirage 13-8 | 22 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-21 | Leo | 5 Ancient 13-9 | 8 Dust2 13-10 | 13 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-20 | Color | 20 Dust2 11-13 | 4 Cache 13-4 | 24 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |







































































































































































