KillsRisk
Line
31
Pick
OVER
Projection
31.05
Hit
48.7%
EV+
-15.6%
Edge
+0.1
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
18.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
18.38
Hit
50.9%
EV+
-11.8%
Edge
-0.1
L10
60%

Rifler
F1KU
Metizport vs BAKS
RISK · OVER 31
BEST OVER · PP 31PP31SL31.5
▲ L5 35.0 · L20 30.3Risk · Edge +0.1 far below ±3.0
Hit rates at 31 (Over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
44%
8/18
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±8.15
Previous meeting · vs BAKS
No meeting with BAKS in his last 18 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
24.8
1/4 hit at 31
Online · this match
31.9
7/14 hit at 31
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm F1KU is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 31
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 72.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 32+ kills: 0.731 KPR over ~42 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (73.5%) or blowout (16.5%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
31.05
Raw edge
+0.1
Cons. hit
48.7%
EV+
-15.6%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
42.4
Line
31
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
48.7%
+8.7 →
Learned
57.4%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 29-33
All players · Kills
56.3%215 picks
This player
50%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 50.3% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +0.1 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 44.4% at this line
- Game script fits: 2-0 sweep 74% (Overs need rounds)
- Blowout win risk — team 72% to win. A 13-3 stomp means fewer rounds to farm kills; still playable.
Sharp checks · 3/6
Big enough sample · 18 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 44.4% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 74% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (29.36) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 31.0 kills vs line 31.0 (5/10 over). KPR 0.69, HS 58%. Next: vs BAKS, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 31.0 against a 31.0 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (74%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (74%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 31.05 vs line 31 → +0.05 (0.2%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 50% over this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
- • Expected 42.4 rounds · 2-0 73.5% · OT 20.7%
Performance (last 36 maps)
Kills/Map
15.14
HS/Map
8.81
K/D
0.97
KPR
0.69
ADR
74.1
KAST
81%
HS%
58.2%
Multi-kill
16.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Nuke)16.7 · KPR 0.746 · 22.3r
Map 2 (Inferno)12.6 · KPR 0.626 · 20.1r
Required KPR to clear0.731
Base kills (Maps 1-2)29.23
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.45%
Final projected kills29.36
BAKS gives up (31 series)-5.7% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 31. Model: 50.3% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps16.5%
~26 kills · 36r20%
Normal54.4%
~30 kills · 41r38.1%
Close maps8.4%
~33 kills · 45r57.2%
Overtime20.7%
~38 kills · 51r77.4%
Match context
Oct 25, 12:00 PMOnlineNODWIN Clutch Series 13
Win chance source: Polymarket 72.5%
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
Heads upBlowout win risk — team 72% to win. A 13-3 stomp means fewer rounds to farm kills; still playable.
M1 Nuke
22.3r
M2 Inferno
20.1r
-16% KPR here
Total
42.4r
2-0 sweep73.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)29.1%
Overtime20.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)16.5%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Nuke / Inferno
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 31 (Over) · avg 31.0 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
31
Nearby lines
| 29 Over | 56.2% | below BE |
| 30 Over | 53.6% | below BE |
| 31 Over | 48.7% | OFFERED |
| 32 Over | 43.9% | below BE |
| 33 Over | 41% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 31
Line movement
first 31→31no change
- First seen31Oct 24, 08:30 PM
Map stats
Nuke
14 maps
Kills
16.8
KPR
0.69
HS%
57.9%
K/D
1.01
Inferno
7 maps
Kills
11.6
KPR
0.53
HS%
56.8%
K/D
0.79
Mirage
5 maps
Kills
14.4
KPR
0.59
HS%
59.7%
K/D
0.86
Cache
5 maps
Kills
18.2
KPR
0.78
HS%
59.3%
K/D
1.25
Anubis
3 maps
Kills
14.3
KPR
0.67
HS%
62.8%
K/D
1.3
Ancient
2 maps
Kills
11.5
KPR
0.5
HS%
47.8%
K/D
0.7
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | Sangal | 17 Cache 16-14 | 30 Nuke 17-19 | 47 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-21 | GenOne | 13 Cache 13-3 | 10 Nuke 13-2 | 23 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-20 | ex-RUSTEC | 19 Anubis 13-7 | 20 Nuke 13-9 | 39 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-07 | K27 | 19 Nuke 13-11 | 15 Mirage 8-13 | 34 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Inner Circle Academy | 17 Anubis 13-9 | 15 Nuke 13-9 | 32 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-26 | aimclub | 15 Mirage 13-6 | 9 Inferno 7-13 | 24 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | HAVU | 9 Nuke 8-13 | 11 Inferno 13-6 | 20 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | Optibet | 11 Ancient 9-13 | 12 Nuke 13-8 | 23 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-14 | Nemiga | 17 Mirage 14-16 | 14 Nuke 8-13 | 31 | L | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-13 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 20 Cache 13-6 | 17 Nuke 14-16 | 37 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-11 | Lavked | 18 Inferno 13-11 | 16 Mirage 16-14 | 34 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-05 | 9INE | 29 Nuke 25-23 | 12 Ancient 13-11 | 41 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-04 | Sashi | 15 Inferno 16-13 | 29 Cache 16-13 | 44 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-02 | Walczaki | 13 Inferno 13-6 | 7 Anubis 13-9 | 20 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-01 | PCIFIC | 8 Inferno 8-13 | 17 Nuke 13-9 | 25 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-31 | ASTRAL | 12 Cache 9-13 | 18 Nuke 13-8 | 30 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-31 | PCIFIC | 15 Nuke 13-7 | 7 Inferno 13-7 | 22 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-28 | Bushido Wildcats | 9 Mirage 9-13 | 10 Nuke 4-13 | 19 | L | Under ✗ | BO |








































































































































































