KillsRisk
Line
28
Pick
OVER
Projection
28.4
Hit
51.9%
EV+
-10.1%
Edge
+0.4
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
16
Pick
OVER
Projection
16.75
Hit
55.1%
EV+
-4.5%
Edge
+0.8
L10
50%

Rifler
HeavyGod
G2 vs Natus Vincere
RISK · OVER 28
BEST OVER · UD 27.5PP28UD27.5
▼ L5 26.8 · L20 28.3Risk · Edge +0.4 far below ±3.0
Hit rates at 28 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
45%
9/20
H2H
50%
1/2
Volatility
Medium
±6.89
Previous meeting · vs Natus Vincere
1/2 hit · avg 28.5 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-03 · ESL Pro League Season 24
Cache 7-13 · Inferno 4-13 · L
20
Under 28 ✗
2026-08-30 · BLAST Open Fall 2026
Ancient 13-6 · Inferno 13-10 · W
37
Over 28 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
28.9
9/19 hit at 28
Online
17
0/1 hit at 28
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm HeavyGod is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 28
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 42.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 29+ kills: 0.67 KPR over ~42 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (51.5%) or blowout (24.5%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
28.4
Raw edge
+0.4
Cons. hit
51.9%
EV+
-10.1%
Rating
1.8/10
Exp. rounds
41.8
Line
28
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
51.9%
+8.6 →
Learned
60.5%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 26-30
All players · Kills
54.4%285 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 52.3% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +0.4 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 45.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 45.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 52% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (29.09) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 29.4 kills vs line 29.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.70, HS 59%. Next: vs Natus Vincere, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 29.4 against a 29.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 28.4 vs line 28 → +0.4 (1.4%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 50% over this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
- • Expected 41.8 rounds · 2-0 51.5% · OT 14.4%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.15
HS/Map
8.35
K/D
1.01
KPR
0.69
ADR
76.9
KAST
75%
HS%
59%
Multi-kill
19.6%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)14.8 · KPR 0.706 · 21r
Map 2 (Dust2)14.3 · KPR 0.688 · 20.8r
Required KPR to clear0.67
Base kills (Maps 1-2)29.14
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.16%
Final projected kills29.09
Natus Vincere gives up (51 series)-4.2% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 28. Model: 52.3% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24.5%
~24 kills · 35r19.7%
Normal48.8%
~28 kills · 42r47.6%
Close maps12.3%
~30 kills · 45r60.4%
Overtime14.4%
~35 kills · 51r81.3%
Match context
Oct 24, 04:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 42.5%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 42% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Ancient
21r
+2% KPR here
M2 Dust2
20.8r
-1% KPR here
Total
41.8r
2-0 sweep51.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime14.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.5%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 28 (Over) · avg 29.4 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
28
Nearby lines
| 26 Over | 59.6% | |
| 27 Over | 55.2% | below BE |
| 28 Over | 51.9% | OFFERED |
| 29 Over | 48.5% | below BE |
| 30 Over | 45% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 28
Line movement
first 29.5→28-1.5
- Back on board29.5 → 28Oct 24, 10:16 PM
- Pulled29.5Oct 24, 04:15 PM
- First seen29.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Ancient
12 maps
Kills
14.8
KPR
0.71
HS%
59.6%
K/D
1.08
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.69
HS%
66.3%
K/D
1.08
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.67
HS%
61.1%
K/D
1.06
Anubis
6 maps
Kills
16.8
KPR
0.75
HS%
50.5%
K/D
1.2
Mirage
5 maps
Kills
11
KPR
0.47
HS%
49.1%
K/D
0.65
Cache
4 maps
Kills
11
KPR
0.54
HS%
68.2%
K/D
0.9
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-06 | PARIVISION | 4 Ancient 7-13 | 18 Anubis 13-9 | 22 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-05 | ShindeN | 15 Dust2 13-6 | 10 Ancient 13-9 | 25 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-04 | 1win | 20 Dust2 11-13 | 16 Ancient 13-1 | 36 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | Natus Vincere | 10 Cache 7-13 | 10 Inferno 4-13 | 20 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-13 | Legacy | 18 Ancient 9-13 | 13 Mirage 10-13 | 31 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-12 | BetBoom | 7 Mirage 7-13 | 16 Anubis 16-13 | 23 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-11 | FURIA | 27 Ancient 16-14 | 15 Dust2 13-3 | 42 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-10 | 5star | 15 Inferno 13-9 | 16 Ancient 13-4 | 31 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | 9z | 20 Dust2 11-13 | 17 Ancient 13-8 | 37 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-09 | BIG | 13 Cache 8-13 | 14 Mirage 13-7 | 27 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-08 | Astralis | 12 Ancient 9-13 | 18 Mirage 19-17 | 30 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-04 | Falcons | 7 Inferno 6-13 | 11 Dust2 9-13 | 18 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-31 | Aurora | 15 Anubis 7-13 | 26 Inferno 19-16 | 41 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-30 | Natus Vincere | 19 Ancient 13-6 | 18 Inferno 13-10 | 37 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-28 | Spirit | 5 Dust2 6-13 | 12 Cache 9-13 | 17 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-26 | Aurora | 14 Inferno 13-5 | 20 Anubis 16-12 | 34 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-20 | FURIA | 9 Ancient 3-13 | 18 Anubis 13-3 | 27 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-19 | Astralis | 13 Ancient 6-13 | 12 Dust2 13-6 | 25 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-13 | BIG | 9 Cache 13-5 | 17 Ancient 13-16 | 26 | Split | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-07-25 | Liquid | 14 Anubis 6-13 | 3 Mirage 5-13 | 17 | L | Under ✗ | BO |







































































































































































