KillsBetter playRisk
Line
26.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
24.81
Hit
50.4%
EV+
-12.8%
Edge
-1.7
L10
70%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
13.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
12.76
Hit
47.3%
EV+
-18.1%
Edge
-0.7
L10
60%

Rifler
ALLE
Tropa do KinGui vs MEIA NOITE
RISK · UNDER 26.5
▼ L5 23.6 · L20 25.8Risk · Edge -1.7 far below ±3.0
Hit rates at 26.5 (Under)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
55%
11/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±5.33
Previous meeting · vs MEIA NOITE
No meeting with MEIA NOITE in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
25.8
11/20 hit at 26.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm ALLE is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 26.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 65.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 26 kills or fewer: below 0.586 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: overtime (10%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
24.81
Raw edge
-1.7
Cons. hit
50.4%
EV+
-12.8%
Rating
2.7/10
Exp. rounds
45.2
Line
26.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
50.4%
-0.8 →
Learned
49.6%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 24.5-28.5
All players · Kills
44%273 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 62.4% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -1.7 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Under risk — team 65% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 55.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 10% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (25.33) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 24.5 kills vs line 26.5 (3/10 over). KPR 0.55, HS 53%. Next: vs MEIA NOITE, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 24.5 against a 26.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 24.81 vs line 26.5 → -1.69 (-6.4%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 70% under this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 45.2 rounds · 2-0 47% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
12.9
HS/Map
6.8
K/D
0.84
KPR
0.55
ADR
68.9
KAST
59.8%
HS%
52.7%
Multi-kill
13.7%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)13.7 · KPR 0.607 · 22.6r
Map 2 (Inferno)11.6 · KPR 0.517 · 22.6r
Required KPR to clear0.586
Base kills (Maps 1-2)25.4
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.29%
Final projected kills25.33
MEIA NOITE gives up (46 series)-1.7% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 26.5. Model: 62.4% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps22.3%
~21 kills · 38r88.4%
Normal51%
~25 kills · 46r62.8%
Close maps16.7%
~27 kills · 48r51%
Overtime10%
~30 kills · 54r28.3%
Match context
Oct 24, 04:00 PMOnline
Win chance source: Polymarket 65.0%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Heads upUnder risk — team 65% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Ancient
22.6r
+10% KPR here
M2 Inferno
22.6r
-6% KPR here
Total
45.2r
2-0 sweep47%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)22.3%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Inferno
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 26.5 (Under) · avg 24.5 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
26.5
Nearby lines
| 24.5 Under | 39.5% | below BE |
| 25.5 Under | 46% | below BE |
| 26.5 Under | 50.4% | OFFERED |
| 27.5 Under | 54.4% | below BE |
| 28.5 Under | 57.7% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 26.5
Line movement
first 26.5→offno change
- Pulled25.5Oct 24, 04:12 PM
- Moved down26.5 → 25.5Oct 24, 03:26 PM
- Back on board26.5 → 26.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- Pulled26.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- First seen26.5Oct 24, 12:52 PM
Map stats
Ancient
11 maps
Kills
13.5
KPR
0.62
HS%
50%
K/D
0.89
Inferno
7 maps
Kills
10.9
KPR
0.5
HS%
51.3%
K/D
0.7
Dust2
6 maps
Kills
11.2
KPR
0.56
HS%
53.7%
K/D
0.74
Cache
5 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.6
HS%
55.4%
K/D
0.9
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
12.5
KPR
0.47
HS%
52%
K/D
0.68
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
16.8
KPR
0.73
HS%
58.2%
K/D
1.1
Overpass
2 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.67
HS%
61.5%
K/D
1.04
Mirage
1 maps
Kills
17
KPR
0.85
HS%
35.3%
K/D
1.21
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13 | ex-Keyd Stars | 7 Dust2 6-13 | 17 Ancient 14-16 | 24 | L | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-12 | ex-Keyd Stars | 6 Dust2 5-13 | 10 Inferno 11-13 | 16 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-10 | Yawara | 8 Anubis 7-13 | 13 Dust2 13-6 | 21 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-08 | Isurus | 10 Inferno 13-11 | 15 Ancient 13-9 | 25 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-07 | QUINTESSÊNCIA | 17 Mirage 13-7 | 15 Ancient 13-5 | 32 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-04 | ALKA | 10 Inferno 7-13 | 12 Dust2 8-13 | 22 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-10 | Pugdesonesto | 13 Inferno 6-13 | 21 Ancient 14-16 | 34 | L | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-08 | BORRACHEIROS | 5 Ancient 2-13 | 17 Inferno 13-10 | 22 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-05 | ODDIK Academy | 16 Anubis 22-20 | 13 Cache 11-13 | 29 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-04 | ALKA | 10 Ancient 13-2 | 10 Cache 9-13 | 20 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-25 | LP | 10 Ancient 8-13 | 11 Cache 5-13 | 21 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-23 | GameHunters | 17 Cache 13-8 | 14 Nuke 16-12 | 31 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-07-10 | Fake do Biru | 14 Cache 10-13 | 17 Nuke 10-13 | 31 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-07-09 | paiN Academy | 14 Anubis 13-11 | 13 Ancient 13-5 | 27 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-08 | Isurus | 6 Inferno 6-13 | 21 Dust2 13-9 | 27 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-07-07 | Patins da Ferrari | 16 Nuke 13-6 | 8 Dust2 8-13 | 24 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-06-29 | ShindeN | 17 Ancient 13-10 | 8 Overpass 5-13 | 25 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-28 | Fluxo | 12 Anubis 8-13 | 10 Inferno 13-9 | 22 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-06-27 | Bounty Hunters | 18 Overpass 13-8 | 9 Ancient 13-9 | 27 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-06-25 | Keyd Stars | 16 Ancient 13-11 | 20 Nuke 13-9 | 36 | W | Over ✗ |









































































































































































