HeadshotsRisk
Line
12
Pick
OVER
Projection
12.34
Hit
51.8%
EV+
-10.3%
Edge
+0.3
L10
50%
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AWPer
molodoy
FURIA vs DENDELE
RISK · OVER 12
BEST OVER · UD 11.5PP12UD11.5
≈ L5 12.2 · L20 12.3Risk · Edge +0.3 far below ±2.0
Hit rates at 12 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
45%
9/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±3.44
Previous meeting · vs DENDELE
No meeting with DENDELE in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
12.3
9/20 hit at 12
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm molodoy is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 12
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 81.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 13+ HS (~34 kills at 38.2% HS): 0.766 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (63.5%) or blowout (31.7%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
12.34
Raw edge
+0.3
Cons. hit
51.8%
EV+
-10.3%
Rating
2.5/10
Exp. rounds
41
Line
12
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
51.8%
+8.6 →
Learned
60.4%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 10-14
All players · Headshots
59.7%134 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 54% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +0.3 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 45.0% at this line
- Blowout win risk — team 82% to win. A 13-3 stomp means fewer rounds to farm kills; still playable.
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 45.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 64% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (12.41) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 12.5 headshots vs line 12.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.76, HS 38%. Next: vs DENDELE, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 12.5 against a 12.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (64%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (64%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 12.34 vs line 12 → +0.34 (2.8%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 50% over this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
- • Expected 41 rounds · 2-0 63.5% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
16.15
HS/Map
6.17
K/D
1.25
KPR
0.76
ADR
76.6
KAST
74.9%
HS%
38.2%
Multi-kill
20%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)6.2 · KPR 0.813 · 20.4r
Map 2 (Cache)6.2 · KPR 0.796 · 20.6r
Required KPR to clear0.766
Base kills (Maps 1-2)32.99
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.54%
Final projected kills32.48
× realistic HS% (38.2%)12.34
DENDELE gives up (26 series)+6% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 12. Model: 54% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps31.7%
~10 HS · 34r24.9%
Normal37.5%
~13 HS · 43r51.5%
Close maps20.8%
~13 HS · 44r55.6%
Overtime10%
~15 HS · 50r72.8%
Match context
Oct 24, 04:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 81.5%
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
Heads upBlowout win risk — team 82% to win. A 13-3 stomp means fewer rounds to farm kills; still playable.
M1 Mirage
20.4r
-1% KPR here
M2 Cache
20.6r
-3% KPR here
Total
41r
2-0 sweep63.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)31.7%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Cache
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 12 (Over) · avg 12.5 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
12
Nearby lines
| 10 Over | 63.9% | |
| 11 Over | 59.5% | |
| 12 Over | 51.8% | OFFERED |
| 13 Over | 42.9% | below BE |
| 14 Over | 34.3% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 12
Line movement
first 12.5→12-0.5
- Back on board12 → 12Oct 24, 10:16 PM
- Pulled12Oct 24, 10:15 PM
- Back on board12.5 → 12Oct 24, 10:15 PM
- Pulled12.5Oct 24, 04:10 PM
- First seen12.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Mirage
10 maps
Kills
16.5
KPR
0.75
HS%
39.4%
K/D
1.31
Cache
7 maps
Kills
16.3
KPR
0.73
HS%
36%
K/D
1.2
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
16.3
KPR
0.79
HS%
37.8%
K/D
1.4
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
18.2
KPR
0.75
HS%
36.7%
K/D
1.17
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
16.2
KPR
0.76
HS%
39.5%
K/D
1.33
Dust2
5 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.74
HS%
40%
K/D
1.17
Anubis
1 maps
Kills
9
KPR
0.43
HS%
44.4%
K/D
0.69
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | BetBoom | 6 Dust2 13-6 | 7 Ancient 16-19 | 13 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-17 | Aurora | 4 Dust2 13-8 | 3 Inferno 13-10 | 7 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-15 | Legacy | 3 Cache 10-13 | 7 Inferno 13-5 | 10 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | BetBoom | 8 Ancient 13-10 | 9 Mirage 13-9 | 17 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-09 | MOUZ | 8 Nuke 11-13 | 6 Inferno 6-13 | 14 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-07 | 9z | 7 Nuke 13-7 | 8 Inferno 13-3 | 15 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-06 | Aurora | 9 Dust2 13-8 | 3 Mirage 9-13 | 12 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-05 | PARIVISION | 3 Ancient 7-13 | 5 Mirage 13-5 | 8 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | MOUZ | 6 Cache 4-13 | 5 Mirage 7-13 | 11 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | BetBoom | 9 Mirage 13-5 | 9 Cache 16-14 | 18 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-20 | Vitality | 6 Cache 5-13 | 4 Anubis 8-13 | 10 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-19 | MIBR | 5 Mirage 13-8 | 7 Nuke 13-11 | 12 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-19 | MOUZ | 3 Cache 13-8 | 11 Mirage 16-19 | 14 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-18 | Vitality | 3 Mirage 8-13 | 7 Dust2 5-13 | 10 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-17 | MIBR | 4 Inferno 11-13 | 6 Nuke 13-6 | 10 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-11 | G2 | 16 Ancient 14-16 | 2 Dust2 3-13 | 18 | L | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-10 | Legacy | 6 Mirage 7-13 | 5 Ancient 9-13 | 11 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-09 | PARIVISION | 1 Ancient 13-2 | 9 Inferno 13-11 | 10 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-08 | GamerLegion | 5 Cache 11-13 | 9 Mirage 13-10 | 14 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-04 | Vitality | 4 Nuke 13-6 | 9 Cache 11-13 | 13 | Split | Over ✓ |







































































































































































