KillsRisk
Line
33.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
34.64
Hit
51.9%
EV+
-10.2%
Edge
+1.1
L10
40%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
20.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
20.28
Hit
52.5%
EV+
-9.1%
Edge
-0.2
L10
60%

Rifler
jottAAA
Eternal Fire vs JiJieHao
RISK · OVER 33.5
≈ L5 35.4 · L20 35.1Risk · Edge +1.1 far below ±3.0
Hit rates at 33.5 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
53%
9/17
H2H
50%
1/2
Volatility
Medium
±8.3
Previous meeting · vs JiJieHao
1/2 hit · avg 35.5 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-03 · Journey Autumn 2026
Dust2 19-15 · Mirage 11-13 · Split
49
Over 33.5 ✓
2026-09-24 · Stake Pulse Beat II
Anubis 10-13 · Mirage 2-13 · L
22
Under 33.5 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
35
7/14 hit at 33.5
Online
35.3
2/3 hit at 33.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm jottAAA is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 33.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 55.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 34+ kills: 0.727 KPR over ~46 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (48%) or blowout (19.6%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
34.64
Raw edge
+1.1
Cons. hit
51.9%
EV+
-10.2%
Rating
3.6/10
Exp. rounds
46.1
Line
33.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
51.9%
+8.6 →
Learned
60.5%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 31.5-35.5
All players · Kills
60%80 picks
This player
66.7%3 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 55.4% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +1.1 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 40.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 52.9% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 17 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 52.9% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 48% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (34.31) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 35.7 kills vs line 33.5 (4/10 over). KPR 0.77, HS 59%. Next: vs JiJieHao, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 35.7 against a 33.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 34.64 vs line 33.5 → +1.14 (3.4%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 40% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 46.1 rounds · 2-0 48% · OT 21.8%
Performance (last 34 maps)
Kills/Map
17.53
HS/Map
10.29
K/D
1.15
KPR
0.77
ADR
84
KAST
74.1%
HS%
58.7%
Multi-kill
19.4%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Cache)16.9 · KPR 0.718 · 23.3r
Map 2 (Mirage)17.4 · KPR 0.755 · 22.8r
Required KPR to clear0.727
Base kills (Maps 1-2)33.94
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+1.07%
Final projected kills34.31
JiJieHao gives up (55 series)+5.5% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 33.5. Model: 55.4% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps19.6%
~29 kills · 39r23.3%
Normal30.9%
~31 kills · 42r34.5%
Close maps27.7%
~37 kills · 49r68%
Overtime21.8%
~42 kills · 55r86%
Match context
Oct 23, 01:00 PMLANDraculaN Season 7
Win chance source: Polymarket 55.5%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 56% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Cache
23.3r
-7% KPR here
M2 Mirage
22.8r
-2% KPR here
Total
46.1r
2-0 sweep48%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)49.5%
Overtime21.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)19.6%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Cache / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 33.5 (Over) · avg 35.7 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
33.5
Nearby lines
| 31.5 Over | 61.2% | |
| 32.5 Over | 56.3% | below BE |
| 33.5 Over | 51.9% | OFFERED |
| 34.5 Over | 49% | below BE |
| 35.5 Over | 44.3% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 33.5
Line movement
first 33.5→offno change
- Pulled33.5Oct 23, 01:30 PM
- Back on board33.5 → 33.5Oct 23, 01:14 PM
- Pulled33.5Oct 23, 01:02 PM
- First seen33.5Oct 23, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Cache
10 maps
Kills
15.8
KPR
0.7
HS%
56.3%
K/D
1.01
Mirage
8 maps
Kills
16.4
KPR
0.75
HS%
62.6%
K/D
1.12
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
19.1
KPR
0.8
HS%
64.1%
K/D
1.25
Anubis
5 maps
Kills
20.2
KPR
0.77
HS%
50.5%
K/D
1.22
Inferno
2 maps
Kills
19.5
KPR
0.91
HS%
64.1%
K/D
1.56
Ancient
1 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.64
HS%
35.7%
K/D
0.93
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | SINNERS | 21 Mirage 13-10 | 22 Cache 14-16 | 43 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-21 | BC.Game | 10 Mirage 6-13 | 14 Ancient 13-9 | 24 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-21 | BASEMENT BOYS | 16 Mirage 8-13 | 16 Cache 13-7 | 32 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-20 | INFINITE | 17 Cache 13-1 | 33 Dust2 22-20 | 50 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-03 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 10 Dust2 4-13 | 18 Inferno 11-13 | 28 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | JiJieHao | 27 Dust2 19-15 | 22 Mirage 11-13 | 49 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-03 | Sangal | 16 Dust2 13-5 | 17 Cache 13-11 | 33 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-02 | BASEMENT BOYS | 17 Mirage 12-16 | 14 Cache 13-7 | 31 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-27 | K27 | 15 Dust2 13-8 | 17 Mirage 13-8 | 32 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | Nuclear TigeRES | 15 Anubis 7-13 | 20 Dust2 13-8 | 35 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | WBT | 13 Cache 13-6 | 26 Anubis 19-17 | 39 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-24 | Betclic | 7 Cache 4-13 | 31 Anubis 16-13 | 38 | Split | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-24 | ASTRAL | 21 Inferno 13-6 | 15 Dust2 13-10 | 36 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-24 | JiJieHao | 14 Anubis 10-13 | 8 Mirage 2-13 | 22 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-20 | WBT | 15 Anubis 13-11 | 21 Cache 16-14 | 36 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-20 | GenOne | 16 Cache 13-9 | 17 Dust2 13-2 | 33 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-19 | NT | 20 Mirage 13-11 | 15 Cache 16-13 | 35 | W | Over ✓ | OT |









































































































































































