HeadshotsRisk
Line
16
Pick
UNDER
Projection
15.72
Hit
37.9%
EV+
-34.3%
Edge
-0.3
L10
40%
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#272Ranked 272 of 277 on the board

Rifler
xfl0ud
FUT vs Liquid
RISK · UNDER 16
BEST UNDER · PP 16PP16UD15.5SL15.5
▼ L5 14.2 · L20 15.6Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 16 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
55%
11/20
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Medium
±5.42
Previous meeting · vs Liquid
1/1 hit · avg 9 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-06-04 · Intel Extreme Masters Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1
Nuke 5-13 · Inferno 11-13 · L
9
Under 16 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
15.3
10/18 hit at 16
Online
17.5
1/2 hit at 16
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm xfl0ud is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 16
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 72.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 15 HS or fewer (under ~29 kills at 55.2% HS): below 0.73 KPR over ~40 rounds. Main danger: overtime (12.2%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
15.72
Raw edge
-0.3
Cons. hit
37.9%
EV+
-34.3%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
39.7
Line
16
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
37.9%
+8.5 →
Learned
46.4%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 14-18
All players · Headshots
41%234 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 52.1% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.3 below ±2.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 40.0% at this line
- Under risk — team 72% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 55.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 12% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (16.37) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 17.0 headshots vs line 16.0 (5/10 over). KPR 0.69, HS 55%. Next: vs Liquid, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 17.0 against a 16.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 15.72 vs line 16 → -0.28 (-1.8%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 40% under this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
- • Expected 39.7 rounds · 2-0 56.5% · OT 12.2%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.07
HS/Map
7.78
K/D
0.92
KPR
0.69
ADR
79.3
KAST
78.9%
HS%
55.2%
Multi-kill
15%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)8.2 · KPR 0.729 · 20.5r
Map 2 (Ancient)8.2 · KPR 0.778 · 19.2r
Required KPR to clear0.73
Base kills (Maps 1-2)29.87
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.72%
Final projected kills29.66
× realistic HS% (55.2%)15.72
Liquid gives up (41 series)-8.4% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 16. Model: 52.1% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps26.8%
~13 HS · 33r71%
Normal42.4%
~16 HS · 40r50.5%
Close maps18.6%
~17 HS · 43r42.8%
Overtime12.2%
~19 HS · 49r26.8%
Match context
Oct 25, 08:00 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 72.5%
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
Heads upUnder risk — team 72% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Dust2
20.5r
-3% KPR here
M2 Ancient
19.2r
+4% KPR here
Total
39.7r
2-0 sweep56.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime12.2%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)26.8%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 16 (Under) · avg 17.0 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
16
Nearby lines
| 14 Under | 27.2% | below BE |
| 15 Under | 31.5% | below BE |
| 16 Under | 37.9% | OFFERED |
| 17 Under | 44.3% | below BE |
| 18 Under | 48.5% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 16
Line movement
first 16→16no change
- First seen16Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Dust2
9 maps
Kills
14.8
KPR
0.67
HS%
59.4%
K/D
0.98
Ancient
8 maps
Kills
14.9
KPR
0.73
HS%
59.7%
K/D
1.03
Nuke
7 maps
Kills
15.9
KPR
0.76
HS%
56.8%
K/D
1.04
Mirage
5 maps
Kills
11.4
KPR
0.56
HS%
43.9%
K/D
0.72
Inferno
5 maps
Kills
11
KPR
0.5
HS%
52.7%
K/D
0.68
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
11.8
KPR
0.55
HS%
46.8%
K/D
0.78
Cache
1 maps
Kills
25
KPR
1.09
HS%
56%
K/D
1.79
Overpass
1 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.57
HS%
50%
K/D
0.84
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | TYLOO | 3 Nuke 13-9 | 6 Ancient 13-6 | 9 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-31 | Vitality | 7 Anubis 7-13 | 4 Dust2 8-13 | 11 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-30 | Inner Circle | 4 Mirage 13-9 | 11 Nuke 13-6 | 15 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-29 | Lynn Vision | 9 Dust2 10-13 | 7 Anubis 13-3 | 16 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-27 | Legacy | 8 Ancient 10-13 | 12 Dust2 11-13 | 20 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-23 | Spirit | 14 Cache 13-10 | 6 Anubis 13-16 | 20 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-22 | FURIA | 12 Ancient 13-11 | 9 Nuke 6-13 | 21 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-21 | MOUZ | 16 Dust2 16-13 | 10 Ancient 13-5 | 26 | W | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-19 | magic | 8 Ancient 9-13 | 2 Anubis 13-7 | 10 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-14 | MOUZ | 7 Ancient 13-6 | 15 Nuke 12-16 | 22 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-07-26 | 3DMAX | 7 Dust2 11-13 | 6 Ancient 9-13 | 13 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-07-23 | SINNERS | 8 Dust2 6-13 | 14 Ancient 13-3 | 22 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-06-04 | Liquid | 7 Nuke 5-13 | 2 Inferno 11-13 | 9 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-03 | Gaimin Gladiators | 4 Dust2 13-5 | 5 Inferno 13-6 | 9 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-05-28 | HEROIC | 14 Inferno 14-16 | 8 Overpass 16-12 | 22 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-05-27 | HEROIC | 6 Nuke 7-13 | 9 Mirage 9-13 | 15 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-05-12 | HEROIC | 5 Mirage 8-13 | 9 Dust2 13-4 | 14 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-05-11 | HEROIC | 5 Inferno 4-13 | 5 Mirage 6-13 | 10 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-05-10 | FURIA | 2 Mirage 4-13 | 3 Inferno 7-13 | 5 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-05-09 | Aurora | 12 Nuke 13-8 | 10 Dust2 13-11 | 22 | W | Over ✗ |








































































































































































