KillsRisk
Line
30.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
30.01
Hit
42.7%
EV+
-26.1%
Edge
-0.5
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playLean
Line
8.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
10.01
Hit
57.5%
EV+
-0.5%
Edge
+1.5
L10
60%

AWPer
zorte
BetBoom vs Team Spirit
LEAN · OVER 8.5
PP10
▲ L5 10.8 · L20 10.3
Hit rates at 8.5 (Over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
60%
12/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±3.32
Previous meeting · vs Team Spirit
No meeting with Team Spirit in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
10.3
12/20 hit at 8.5
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Veto confirmed — re-check map order
- Confirm zorte is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 8.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 33.5%
underdog · Headshots · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Needs 9+ HS (~26 kills at 34.3% HS): 0.551 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (7.8%) or blowout (20.5%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
10.01
Raw edge
+1.5
Cons. hit
57.5%
EV+
-0.5%
Rating
4.7/10
Exp. rounds
45
Line
8.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
57.5%
-2.4 →
Learned
55.1%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 6.5-10.5
All players · Headshots
51.9%52 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 67.6% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +1.5 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Blowout loss risk — team only 34% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 60.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 8% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (9.68) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 9.5 headshots vs line 8.5 (6/10 over). KPR 0.68, HS 34%. Next: vs Spirit, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 9.5 against a 8.5 line
Biggest risk: Normal CS2 variance
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 10.01 vs line 8.5 → +1.51 (17.8%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 60% over this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 45 rounds · 2-0 7.8% · OT 18.9%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15
HS/Map
5.15
K/D
1.05
KPR
0.68
ADR
68.9
KAST
72.3%
HS%
34.3%
Multi-kill
15.7%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Anubis)4.6 · KPR 0.603 · 21.7r
Map 2 (Ancient)5.1 · KPR 0.627 · 23.3r
Required KPR to clear0.551
Base kills (Maps 1-2)27.68
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+1.92%
Final projected kills28.21
× realistic HS% (34.3%)10.01
Team Spirit gives up (133 series)-1.8% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 8.5. Model: 67.6% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps20.5%
~8 HS · 38r46.3%
Normal36.2%
~9 HS · 42r59%
Close maps24.4%
~11 HS · 48r73.5%
Overtime18.9%
~12 HS · 54r84.2%
Match context
Oct 24, 10:40 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 33.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
⚠ Blowout riskBlowout loss risk — team only 34% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
M1 Anubis
21.7r
-5% KPR here
M2 Ancient
23.3r
-1% KPR here
Total
45r
2-0 sweep7.8%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)43.3%
Overtime18.9%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)20.5%
Veto confirmed (bo3.gg): Anubis / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 8.5 (Over) · avg 9.5 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
8.5
Nearby lines
| 6.5 Over | 65.3% | |
| 7.5 Over | 62.8% | |
| 8.5 Over | 57.5% | OFFERED |
| 9.5 Over | 47.1% | below BE |
| 10.5 Over | 37.9% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 8.5
Line movement
first 8.5→offno change
- Pulled8.5Oct 24, 10:40 AM
- First seen8.5Oct 23, 12:41 PM
Map stats
Anubis
8 maps
Kills
14.5
KPR
0.63
HS%
27.6%
K/D
0.98
Mirage
8 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.68
HS%
33%
K/D
1.08
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
17.3
KPR
0.8
HS%
38.8%
K/D
1.3
Nuke
6 maps
Kills
13.7
KPR
0.63
HS%
43.9%
K/D
0.99
Ancient
5 maps
Kills
17.2
KPR
0.66
HS%
29.1%
K/D
1.06
Cache
4 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.62
HS%
40%
K/D
0.91
Overpass
2 maps
Kills
11.5
KPR
0.57
HS%
21.7%
K/D
0.79
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | FURIA | 5 Dust2 6-13 | 5 Ancient 19-16 | 10 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-17 | Falcons | 1 Anubis 5-13 | 8 Dust2 16-14 | 9 | Split | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-16 | Legacy | 7 Nuke 16-13 | 11 Dust2 11-13 | 18 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-15 | PARIVISION | 7 Ancient 10-13 | 4 Anubis 13-4 | 11 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | FURIA | 2 Ancient 10-13 | 4 Mirage 9-13 | 6 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-06 | 9z | 3 Dust2 8-13 | 5 Mirage 9-13 | 8 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-05 | Aurora | 3 Mirage 4-13 | 8 Nuke 13-7 | 11 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | M80 | 5 Cache 16-14 | 2 Anubis 13-11 | 7 | W | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-03 | FURIA | 1 Mirage 5-13 | 5 Cache 14-16 | 6 | L | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-12 | G2 | 5 Mirage 13-7 | 4 Anubis 13-16 | 9 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-10 | MIBR | 5 Mirage 13-9 | 2 Anubis 16-14 | 7 | W | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-09 | Astralis | 7 Ancient 16-14 | 6 Anubis 13-8 | 13 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-08 | BIG | 12 Cache 13-8 | 6 Nuke 13-9 | 18 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-14 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 2 Nuke 3-13 | 7 Anubis 11-13 | 9 | L | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-10 | FaZe | 2 Cache 2-13 | 4 Ancient 6-13 | 6 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-03 | Nemesis | 10 Mirage 10-13 | 11 Dust2 13-6 | 21 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-06-18 | Aurora | 5 Nuke 6-13 | 6 Anubis 9-13 | 11 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-06-15 | FUT | 4 Mirage 13-7 | 4 Dust2 13-7 | 8 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-06-14 | Vitality | 3 Overpass 8-13 | 8 Nuke 11-13 | 11 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-06-13 | FURIA | 2 Overpass 6-13 | 5 Dust2 6-13 | 7 | L | Under ✗ |







































































































































































