KillsBetter playRisk
Line
29.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
30.69
Hit
54.5%
EV+
-5.6%
Edge
+1.2
L10
50%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
16.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
16.54
Hit
49.6%
EV+
-14.0%
Edge
+0.0
L10
40%
#175Ranked 175 of 277 on the board

Rifler
XANTARES
Aurora vs G2
RISK · OVER 16.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP16.5UD16.5SL16.5
▲ L5 16.2 · L20 15.3Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1
Hit rates at 16.5 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
35%
7/20
H2H
0%
0/1
Volatility
Medium
±4.73
Previous meeting · vs G2
0/1 hit · avg 14 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-08-31 · BLAST Open Fall 2026
Anubis 13-7 · Inferno 16-19 · Split
14
Under 16.5 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
15.3
7/20 hit at 16.5
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm XANTARES is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 16.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 59.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 17+ HS (~32 kills at 53% HS): 0.66 KPR over ~47 rounds. His Kills line is 29.5: backing Kills Over needs ~2 fewer kills, usually the easier play. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (53.5%) or blowout (25.1%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
16.54
Raw edge
+0.0
Cons. hit
49.6%
EV+
-14.0%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
47.2
Line
16.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
49.6%
+8.7 →
Learned
58.3%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 14.5-18.5
All players · Headshots
59.5%247 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 50.4% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +0.0 below ±2.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 40.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 35.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 35.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 54% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (16.69) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 15.8 headshots vs line 16.5 (4/10 over). KPR 0.67, HS 53%. Next: vs G2, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 15.8 against a 16.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 16.54 vs line 16.5 → +0.04 (0.2%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 40% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 47.2 rounds · 2-0 53.5% · OT 12.2%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.47
HS/Map
7.67
K/D
0.98
KPR
0.67
ADR
77.7
KAST
70.9%
HS%
53%
Multi-kill
14.4%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)8.6 · KPR 0.672 · 24.4r
Map 2 (Dust2)8 · KPR 0.669 · 22.8r
Required KPR to clear0.66
Base kills (Maps 1-2)31.65
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.49%
Final projected kills31.49
× realistic HS% (53%)16.54
G2 gives up (86 series)-1.6% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 16.5. Model: 50.4% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps25.1%
~14 HS · 40r24.7%
Normal39.9%
~17 HS · 47r48.5%
Close maps22.8%
~18 HS · 51r58.8%
Overtime12.2%
~20 HS · 57r74.9%
Match context
Oct 25, 02:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 59.5%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 60% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Inferno
24.4r
M2 Dust2
22.8r
Total
47.2r
2-0 sweep53.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)35%
Overtime12.2%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)25.1%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Inferno / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 16.5 (Over) · avg 15.8 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
16.5
Nearby lines
| 14.5 Over | 60.1% | |
| 15.5 Over | 54.6% | below BE |
| 16.5 Over | 49.6% | OFFERED |
| 17.5 Over | 44.6% | below BE |
| 18.5 Over | 39.8% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 16.5
Line movement
first 16.5→16.5no change
- First seen16.5Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Mirage
8 maps
Kills
15.6
KPR
0.67
HS%
54.4%
K/D
0.98
Inferno
8 maps
Kills
16.2
KPR
0.67
HS%
53.8%
K/D
1.07
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
14.6
KPR
0.67
HS%
48.7%
K/D
0.98
Anubis
7 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.66
HS%
53.8%
K/D
0.99
Cache
5 maps
Kills
17
KPR
0.8
HS%
50.6%
K/D
1.18
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
7.8
KPR
0.44
HS%
64.5%
K/D
0.53
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | The MongolZ | 13 Inferno 16-12 | 2 Nuke 2-13 | 15 | Split | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-18 | Falcons | 9 Anubis 8-13 | 15 Dust2 19-17 | 24 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-17 | FURIA | 3 Dust2 8-13 | 7 Inferno 10-13 | 10 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-16 | 9z | 6 Cache 13-11 | 6 Inferno 13-4 | 12 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 8 Cache 13-9 | 12 Dust2 13-7 | 20 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-14 | 9z | 10 Inferno 11-13 | 4 Nuke 1-13 | 14 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-11 | Spirit | 12 Mirage 13-9 | 9 Anubis 13-6 | 21 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Vitality | 10 Anubis 13-7 | 9 Cache 7-13 | 19 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-09 | 1win | 8 Dust2 13-9 | 6 Anubis 13-8 | 14 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-06 | FURIA | 3 Dust2 8-13 | 6 Mirage 13-9 | 9 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-05 | BetBoom | 5 Mirage 13-4 | 7 Nuke 7-13 | 12 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | Falcons | 4 Mirage 4-13 | 4 Dust2 10-13 | 8 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | 9z | 6 Dust2 13-3 | 10 Mirage 13-11 | 16 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-20 | Vitality | 7 Anubis 4-13 | 4 Inferno 13-11 | 11 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-19 | Vitality | 6 Anubis 13-7 | 6 Inferno 11-13 | 12 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-18 | NRG | 10 Cache 13-7 | 16 Mirage 19-17 | 26 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-17 | Natus Vincere | 7 Nuke 13-8 | 4 Mirage 13-7 | 11 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-31 | G2 | 2 Anubis 13-7 | 12 Inferno 16-19 | 14 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-30 | M80 | 6 Dust2 13-3 | 12 Inferno 13-5 | 18 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | DENDELE | 10 Cache 13-7 | 11 Mirage 16-12 | 21 | W | Over ✓ | OT |








































































































































































