KillsRisk
Line
35.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
33.45
Hit
39.4%
EV+
-31.8%
Edge
-2.0
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
14.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
15.08
Hit
55.9%
EV+
-3.2%
Edge
+0.6
L10
70%

AWPer
ZywOo
Vitality vs 9z
RISK · OVER 14.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP14.5UD14.5
▼ L5 14.8 · L20 15.8Risk · Edge +0.6 far below ±2.0
Hit rates at 14.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
65%
13/20
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Medium
±5.08
Previous meeting · vs 9z
1/1 hit · avg 17 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-08-29 · BLAST Open Fall 2026
Dust2 13-2 · Nuke 13-6 · W
17
Over 14.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
15.8
13/20 hit at 14.5
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm ZywOo is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 14.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 84.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 15+ HS (~34 kills at 44.4% HS): 0.873 KPR over ~37 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (66.5%) or blowout (39.2%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
15.08
Raw edge
+0.6
Cons. hit
55.9%
EV+
-3.2%
Rating
4.9/10
Exp. rounds
37.4
Line
14.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
55.9%
+8.4 →
Learned
64.3%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 12.5-16.5
All players · Headshots
61.7%261 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 54.5% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +0.6 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Game script fits: 2-0 sweep 66% (Overs need rounds)
- Blowout win risk — team 84% to win. A 13-3 stomp means fewer rounds to farm kills; still playable.
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 65.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 66% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (15.2) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 16.5 headshots vs line 14.5 (7/10 over). KPR 0.88, HS 44%. Next: vs 9z, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 16.5 against a 14.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (66%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (66%) — fewer total rounds
- 30% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 15.08 vs line 14.5 → +0.58 (4.0%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 70% over this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
- • Expected 37.4 rounds · 2-0 66.5% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
17.8
HS/Map
7.9
K/D
1.53
KPR
0.88
ADR
90.6
KAST
80%
HS%
44.4%
Multi-kill
22.6%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)7.9 · KPR 0.995 · 18.3r
Map 2 (Anubis)7.3 · KPR 0.885 · 19.1r
Required KPR to clear0.873
Base kills (Maps 1-2)35.1
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-2.45%
Final projected kills34.24
× realistic HS% (44.4%)15.08
9z gives up (77 series)-2.7% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 14.5. Model: 54.5% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps39.2%
~13 HS · 32r31.7%
Normal34.1%
~16 HS · 41r62.7%
Close maps18.9%
~16 HS · 40r61.5%
Overtime7.8%
~19 HS · 46r78.1%
Match context
Oct 24, 01:30 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 84.5%
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
Heads upBlowout win risk — team 84% to win. A 13-3 stomp means fewer rounds to farm kills; still playable.
M1 Dust2
18.3r
+4% KPR here
M2 Anubis
19.1r
-7% KPR here
Total
37.4r
2-0 sweep66.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)39.2%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Anubis
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 14.5 (Over) · avg 16.5 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
14.5
Nearby lines
| 12.5 Over | 63.3% | |
| 13.5 Over | 61% | |
| 14.5 Over | 55.9% | OFFERED |
| 15.5 Over | 51.4% | below BE |
| 16.5 Over | 46.8% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 14.5
Line movement
first 14.5→14.5no change
- Back on board15.5 → 14.5Oct 24, 09:06 PM
- Pulled15.5Oct 24, 01:55 PM
- Back on board15.5 → 15.5Oct 24, 08:12 AM
- Pulled15.5Oct 24, 08:12 AM
- Back on board14.5 → 15.5Oct 24, 08:11 AM
- Pulled14.5Oct 24, 08:09 AM
- First seen14.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Dust2
10 maps
Kills
18
KPR
0.93
HS%
37.8%
K/D
1.84
Anubis
9 maps
Kills
16.2
KPR
0.8
HS%
45.2%
K/D
1.29
Cache
7 maps
Kills
20.9
KPR
0.98
HS%
47.3%
K/D
1.95
Inferno
5 maps
Kills
16.4
KPR
0.81
HS%
53.7%
K/D
1.55
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
17.2
KPR
0.74
HS%
43%
K/D
1.16
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
18
KPR
0.88
HS%
44.4%
K/D
1.41
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | MOUZ | 14 Cache 13-8 | 7 Inferno 13-7 | 21 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Aurora | 6 Anubis 7-13 | 12 Cache 13-7 | 18 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-09 | PARIVISION | 1 Inferno 13-2 | 5 Dust2 13-10 | 6 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-05 | Falcons | 2 Anubis 9-13 | 7 Dust2 13-4 | 9 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | Natus Vincere | 15 Anubis 13-5 | 5 Nuke 5-13 | 20 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | 1win | 10 Dust2 13-1 | 8 Cache 13-5 | 18 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-20 | Aurora | 8 Anubis 13-4 | 15 Inferno 11-13 | 23 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-20 | FURIA | 8 Cache 13-5 | 11 Anubis 13-8 | 19 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-19 | Aurora | 7 Anubis 7-13 | 7 Inferno 13-11 | 14 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-18 | FURIA | 12 Mirage 13-8 | 5 Dust2 13-5 | 17 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-17 | magic | 3 Mirage 13-6 | 9 Dust2 13-9 | 12 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-05 | MOUZ | 5 Dust2 11-13 | 9 Mirage 7-13 | 14 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-04 | FURIA | 4 Nuke 6-13 | 11 Cache 13-11 | 15 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-31 | FUT | 8 Anubis 13-7 | 4 Dust2 13-8 | 12 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-30 | Legacy | 7 Nuke 16-14 | 8 Mirage 9-13 | 15 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-29 | 9z | 7 Dust2 13-2 | 10 Nuke 13-6 | 17 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-27 | Inner Circle | 2 Anubis 8-13 | 5 Cache 13-16 | 7 | L | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-21 | Spirit | 7 Anubis 11-13 | 11 Nuke 16-14 | 18 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-20 | FaZe | 7 Dust2 13-11 | 11 Cache 13-6 | 18 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-16 | Lynn Vision | 9 Dust2 13-2 | 14 Inferno 13-5 | 23 | W | Over ✓ | BO |







































































































































































