KillsBetter playRisk
Line
28.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
29.7
Hit
62.8%
EV+
+8.7%
Edge
+1.2
L10
90%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
14
Pick
OVER
Projection
14.05
Hit
50.3%
EV+
-12.8%
Edge
+0.1
L10
40%

Rifler · IGL
VINI
Imperial vs BESTIA
RISK · OVER 14
≈ L5 14.8 · L20 14.3Risk · Edge +0.0 far below ±2.0
Hit rates at 14 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
43%
6/14
H2H
50%
1/2
Volatility
Low
±1.75
Previous meeting · vs BESTIA
1/2 hit · avg 15 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-22 · Circuit X Curitiba 4
Dust2 7-13 · Mirage 7-13 · L
14
Under 14 ✗
2026-09-19 · Circuit X Curitiba 3
Mirage 10-13 · Nuke 13-2 · Split
16
Over 14 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
13.8
5/13 hit at 14
Online
20
1/1 hit at 14
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm VINI is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 14
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 63.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 15+ HS (~31 kills at 48.1% HS): 0.656 KPR over ~44 rounds. His Kills line is 28.5: backing Kills Over needs ~2 fewer kills, usually the easier play. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (54%) or blowout (28.3%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
14.05
Raw edge
+0.1
Cons. hit
50.3%
EV+
-12.8%
Rating
2.7/10
Exp. rounds
44.4
Line
14
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
50.3%
+8.7 →
Learned
59%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 12-16
All players · Headshots
60.6%216 picks
This player
100%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 51.1% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +0.0 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 40.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 42.9% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 14 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 42.9% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 54% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (13.73) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 14.5 headshots vs line 14.0 (4/10 over). KPR 0.71, HS 48%. Next: vs BESTIA, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 14.5 against a 14.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 14.05 vs line 14 → +0.05 (0.4%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 40% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 44.4 rounds · 2-0 54% · OT 13.6%
Performance (last 28 maps)
Kills/Map
14.86
HS/Map
7.14
K/D
1.08
KPR
0.71
ADR
78.7
KAST
73.5%
HS%
48.1%
Multi-kill
17.2%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)7.1 · KPR 0.642 · 23.2r
Map 2 (Nuke)6.6 · KPR 0.652 · 21.2r
Required KPR to clear0.656
Base kills (Maps 1-2)28.72
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.62%
Final projected kills28.54
× realistic HS% (48.1%)14.05
BESTIA gives up (72 series)+4.5% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 14. Model: 51.1% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps28.3%
~12 HS · 37r21.5%
Normal30.6%
~14 HS · 44r42.6%
Close maps27.5%
~15 HS · 48r53.5%
Overtime13.6%
~17 HS · 54r70.8%
Match context
Oct 24, 09:00 PMLANCircuit X Curitiba 4
Win chance source: Polymarket 63.5%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 64% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Mirage
23.2r
-9% KPR here
M2 Nuke
21.2r
-8% KPR here
Total
44.4r
2-0 sweep54%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)41.1%
Overtime13.6%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)28.3%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Nuke
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 14 (Over) · avg 14.5 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
14
Nearby lines
| 12 Over | 66.9% | |
| 13 Over | 64.5% | |
| 14 Over | 50.3% | OFFERED |
| 15 Over | 36% | below BE |
| 16 Over | 25% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 14
Line movement
first 14→offno change
- Pulled14Oct 24, 09:55 PM
- Back on board14 → 14Oct 24, 09:54 PM
- Pulled14Oct 24, 09:54 PM
- First seen14Oct 24, 05:25 AM
Map stats
Mirage
7 maps
Kills
13.9
KPR
0.61
HS%
51.5%
K/D
0.91
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.62
HS%
53.3%
K/D
1.15
Cache
4 maps
Kills
17.5
KPR
0.68
HS%
42.9%
K/D
1.03
Inferno
4 maps
Kills
13.8
KPR
0.72
HS%
56.4%
K/D
1.08
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.69
HS%
37.7%
K/D
1.02
Dust2
4 maps
Kills
18.2
KPR
0.99
HS%
46.6%
K/D
1.55
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | paiN | 6 Inferno 13-3 | 8 Anubis 14-16 | 14 | Split | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-22 | ShindeN | 10 Dust2 13-4 | 5 Mirage 16-14 | 15 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-22 | BESTIA | 7 Dust2 7-13 | 7 Mirage 7-13 | 14 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-22 | Turma do Pagode | 8 Anubis 13-10 | 6 Cache 16-14 | 14 | W | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-11 | DENDELE | 8 Mirage 8-13 | 9 Inferno 11-13 | 17 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-11 | NRG | 7 Inferno 4-13 | 10 Dust2 13-7 | 17 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-10 | Without a Roof | 7 Dust2 13-4 | 7 Nuke 13-9 | 14 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-27 | paiN | 3 Anubis 13-4 | 10 Cache 13-11 | 13 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | Bounty Hunters | 4 Mirage 13-9 | 7 Nuke 13-7 | 11 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-24 | Galorys | 7 Cache 16-12 | 9 Inferno 13-6 | 16 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-23 | Juventus | 4 Anubis 13-6 | 4 Nuke 13-3 | 8 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-19 | BESTIA | 9 Mirage 10-13 | 7 Nuke 13-2 | 16 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-17 | Bounty Hunters | 4 Mirage 13-6 | 7 Cache 8-13 | 11 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-06 | Bounty Hunters | 13 Mirage 13-10 | 7 Nuke 11-13 | 20 | Split | Over ✓ |








































































































































































