KillsRisk
Line
25.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
25.09
Hit
42%
EV+
-27.3%
Edge
-0.4
L10
60%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
13
Pick
UNDER
Projection
12.92
Hit
42.1%
EV+
-27.1%
Edge
-0.1
L10
60%

Rifler · IGL
magixx
Team Spirit vs BetBoom
RISK · UNDER 13
BEST UNDER · PP 13PP13UD12.5
▲ L5 13.4 · L20 12.2Risk · Edge -0.1 far below ±2.0LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 13 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
60%
12/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±3.81
Previous meeting · vs BetBoom
No meeting with BetBoom in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
12.2
12/20 hit at 13
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Veto confirmed — re-check map order
- Confirm magixx is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 13
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 66.5%
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 12 HS or fewer (under ~25 kills at 52.2% HS): below 0.562 KPR over ~44 rounds. Main danger: overtime (7.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
12.92
Raw edge
-0.1
Cons. hit
42.1%
EV+
-27.1%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
44.3
Line
13
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
42.1%
+8.7 →
Learned
50.8%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 11-15
All players · Headshots
39.6%169 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 50.9% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.1 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Under risk — team 66% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 60.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 8% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (12.71) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 12.9 headshots vs line 12.5 (4/10 over). KPR 0.57, HS 52%. Next: vs BetBoom, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 12.9 against a 12.5 line
Biggest risk: Normal CS2 variance
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 12.92 vs line 13 → -0.08 (-0.6%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 60% under this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
- • Expected 44.3 rounds · 2-0 7.8% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
11.68
HS/Map
6.1
K/D
0.82
KPR
0.56
ADR
70.1
KAST
70.4%
HS%
52.2%
Multi-kill
13.8%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Anubis)7.1 · KPR 0.597 · 22.7r
Map 2 (Ancient)5.6 · KPR 0.491 · 21.6r
Required KPR to clear0.562
Base kills (Maps 1-2)24.16
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.81%
Final projected kills24.35
× realistic HS% (52.2%)12.92
BetBoom gives up (64 series)+5.3% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 13. Model: 50.9% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps20.5%
~11 HS · 37r70.2%
Normal44.5%
~13 HS · 44r48.2%
Close maps27.2%
~14 HS · 47r38.1%
Overtime7.8%
~16 HS · 53r22.9%
Match context
Oct 24, 10:40 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 66.5%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
Heads upUnder risk — team 66% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Anubis
22.7r
+6% KPR here
M2 Ancient
21.6r
-13% KPR here
Total
44.3r
2-0 sweep7.8%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)35%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)20.5%
Veto confirmed (bo3.gg): Anubis / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 13 (Under) · avg 12.9 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
13
Nearby lines
| 11 Under | 24% | below BE |
| 12 Under | 31.9% | below BE |
| 13 Under | 42.1% | OFFERED |
| 14 Under | 48.3% | below BE |
| 15 Under | 55.8% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 13
Line movement
first 12.5→13+0.5
- Back on board13.5 → 13Oct 24, 09:06 PM
- Pulled13.5Oct 24, 10:03 AM
- Moved up12.5 → 13.5Oct 24, 06:00 AM
- First seen12.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Dust2
12 maps
Kills
12.1
KPR
0.56
HS%
53.8%
K/D
0.82
Cache
7 maps
Kills
11.7
KPR
0.56
HS%
47.6%
K/D
0.95
Mirage
7 maps
Kills
10.1
KPR
0.48
HS%
46.5%
K/D
0.71
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
9.8
KPR
0.45
HS%
59.3%
K/D
0.8
Anubis
5 maps
Kills
14.4
KPR
0.62
HS%
51.4%
K/D
0.83
Nuke
3 maps
Kills
12.7
KPR
0.51
HS%
57.9%
K/D
0.78
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | Aurora | 5 Mirage 9-13 | 5 Anubis 6-13 | 10 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-10 | MOUZ | 6 Dust2 7-13 | 6 Mirage 13-5 | 12 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-09 | Falcons | 6 Mirage 13-8 | 13 Anubis 13-10 | 19 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-07 | M80 | 8 Dust2 13-6 | 9 Cache 13-10 | 17 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-06 | 1win | 4 Cache 5-13 | 5 Anubis 9-13 | 9 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-05 | MOUZ | 5 Dust2 5-13 | 6 Mirage 11-13 | 11 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | PARIVISION | 8 Ancient 11-13 | 10 Dust2 13-6 | 18 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-03 | ShindeN | 7 Dust2 11-13 | 5 Nuke 13-11 | 12 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-06 | MOUZ | 6 Dust2 13-8 | 1 Mirage 11-13 | 7 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-05 | Falcons | 7 Nuke 13-8 | 7 Ancient 13-11 | 14 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-31 | FURIA | 7 Ancient 13-10 | 6 Cache 13-5 | 13 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | G2 | 5 Dust2 13-6 | 4 Cache 13-9 | 9 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-26 | DENDELE | 6 Ancient 13-8 | 7 Cache 13-7 | 13 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-23 | FUT | 4 Cache 10-13 | 5 Anubis 16-13 | 9 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-22 | Legacy | 4 Dust2 13-7 | 3 Ancient 13-9 | 7 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-21 | Vitality | 9 Anubis 13-11 | 10 Nuke 14-16 | 19 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-20 | B8 | 6 Dust2 13-9 | 5 Mirage 13-9 | 11 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-15 | BIG | 5 Cache 9-13 | 6 Dust2 13-10 | 11 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-13 | Luminosity | 4 Ancient 13-3 | 10 Dust2 19-15 | 14 | W | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-02 | MOUZ | 5 Dust2 8-13 | 4 Mirage 4-13 | 9 | L | Under ✓ | BO |







































































































































































