KillsRisk
Line
32
Pick
UNDER
Projection
31.97
Hit
42.9%
EV+
-25.7%
Edge
-0.0
L10
70%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
11
Pick
UNDER
Projection
10.63
Hit
44.2%
EV+
-23.5%
Edge
-0.4
L10
60%

AWPer
try
Legacy vs Nemiga
RISK · UNDER 11
BEST UNDER · PP 11PP11UD9.5
▼ L5 9.6 · L20 11.6Risk · Edge -0.4 far below ±2.0LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 11 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
45%
9/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±3.59
Previous meeting · vs Nemiga
No meeting with Nemiga in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
11.6
9/20 hit at 11
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm try is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 11
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 65.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 10 HS or fewer (under ~31 kills at 35.2% HS): below 0.728 KPR over ~43 rounds. Main danger: overtime (7.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
10.63
Raw edge
-0.4
Cons. hit
44.2%
EV+
-23.5%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
42.9
Line
11
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
44.2%
-7.9 →
Learned
36.3%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 9-13
All players · Headshots
41.3%104 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 54.1% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.4 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 45.0% at this line
- Under risk — team 66% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 45.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 8% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (11.07) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 9.9 headshots vs line 10.5 (4/10 over). KPR 0.69, HS 35%. Next: vs Nemiga, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 9.9 against a 10.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 10.63 vs line 11 → -0.37 (-3.4%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 60% under this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
- • Expected 42.9 rounds · 2-0 54.5% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
16.48
HS/Map
5.8
K/D
1.32
KPR
0.69
ADR
72.3
KAST
73.1%
HS%
35.2%
Multi-kill
16.1%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)5.3 · KPR 0.714 · 21.4r
Map 2 (Dust2)5.7 · KPR 0.76 · 21.5r
Required KPR to clear0.728
Base kills (Maps 1-2)31.62
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.57%
Final projected kills31.44
× realistic HS% (35.2%)10.63
Nemiga gives up (70 series)-0.1% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 11. Model: 54.1% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps20.2%
~9 HS · 36r70.8%
Normal53.1%
~11 HS · 43r50.3%
Close maps18.9%
~11 HS · 46r42.5%
Overtime7.8%
~13 HS · 52r27.8%
Match context
Oct 24, 12:55 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 65.5%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
Heads upUnder risk — team 66% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Ancient
21.4r
+3% KPR here
M2 Dust2
21.5r
+10% KPR here
Total
42.9r
2-0 sweep54.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)20.2%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 11 (Under) · avg 9.9 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
11
Nearby lines
| 9 Under | 29.2% | below BE |
| 10 Under | 35.5% | below BE |
| 11 Under | 44.2% | OFFERED |
| 12 Under | 50.6% | below BE |
| 13 Under | 59.4% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 11
Line movement
first 10.5→11+0.5
- Back on board11 → 11Oct 24, 10:16 PM
- Pulled11Oct 24, 10:15 PM
- Back on board10.5 → 11Oct 24, 10:15 PM
- Pulled10.5Oct 24, 12:46 PM
- Back on board10.5 → 10.5Oct 24, 12:45 PM
- Pulled10.5Oct 24, 12:45 PM
- First seen10.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Ancient
10 maps
Kills
15.4
KPR
0.72
HS%
35.7%
K/D
1.28
Dust2
9 maps
Kills
16.8
KPR
0.78
HS%
35.8%
K/D
1.32
Mirage
8 maps
Kills
16.6
KPR
0.74
HS%
33.1%
K/D
1.29
Nuke
6 maps
Kills
20.5
KPR
0.83
HS%
33.3%
K/D
1.45
Inferno
5 maps
Kills
14.6
KPR
0.78
HS%
41.1%
K/D
1.26
Cache
2 maps
Kills
12.5
KPR
0.62
HS%
32%
K/D
1.19
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | BetBoom | 10 Nuke 13-16 | 4 Dust2 13-11 | 14 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-15 | FURIA | 4 Cache 13-10 | 2 Inferno 5-13 | 6 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | PARIVISION | 5 Dust2 13-11 | 7 Mirage 16-14 | 12 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-06 | M80 | 4 Cache 4-13 | 6 Mirage 13-9 | 10 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-05 | 1win | 4 Dust2 8-13 | 2 Ancient 8-13 | 6 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-04 | ShindeN | 6 Nuke 13-8 | 11 Mirage 13-11 | 17 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-03 | PARIVISION | 6 Dust2 13-5 | 2 Inferno 2-13 | 8 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-13 | G2 | 3 Ancient 13-9 | 3 Mirage 13-10 | 6 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-12 | MIBR | 6 Nuke 13-10 | 6 Ancient 11-13 | 12 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-10 | FURIA | 5 Mirage 13-7 | 3 Ancient 13-9 | 8 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-09 | Alliance | 11 Inferno 13-4 | 4 Dust2 13-6 | 15 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-08 | magic | 8 Ancient 13-7 | 6 Dust2 7-13 | 14 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-30 | Vitality | 3 Nuke 14-16 | 4 Mirage 13-9 | 7 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-29 | Falcons | 2 Mirage 6-13 | 7 Ancient 13-10 | 9 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-27 | FUT | 8 Ancient 13-10 | 7 Dust2 13-11 | 15 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-23 | FURIA | 11 Ancient 9-13 | 9 Nuke 13-9 | 20 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-22 | Spirit | 6 Dust2 7-13 | 4 Ancient 9-13 | 10 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-21 | Falcons | 6 Mirage 13-7 | 12 Dust2 13-10 | 18 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-20 | Natus Vincere | 8 Inferno 13-9 | 3 Ancient 13-2 | 11 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-16 | MIBR | 7 Nuke 13-11 | 7 Inferno 13-8 | 14 | W | Over ✗ |







































































































































































