KillsLean
Line
29
Pick
OVER
Projection
33.4
Hit
61.8%
EV+
+7.1%
Edge
+4.4
L10
50%
HeadshotsLean
Line
17.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
21.13
Hit
61.9%
EV+
+7.2%
Edge
+3.6
L10
50%

Rifler
oz1k
Color vs ex-Zero Tenacity
LEAN · OVER 17.5
PP17.5
▲ L5 21.4 · L20 19.1
Hit rates at 17.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
50%
10/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
High
±6.42
Previous meeting · vs ex-Zero Tenacity
No meeting with ex-Zero Tenacity in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
19.1
10/20 hit at 17.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm oz1k is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 19
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 50.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Needs 18+ HS (~29 kills at 62.6% HS): 0.568 KPR over ~49 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (55.5%) or blowout (17.8%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
21.13
Raw edge
+3.6
Cons. hit
61.9%
EV+
+7.2%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
49.2
Line
17.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
61.9%
-8.3 →
Learned
53.6%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 15.5-19.5
All players · Headshots
59.3%204 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 71.4% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- High form volatility
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 50.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 50.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 56% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (21.01) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 20.3 headshots vs line 17.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.69, HS 63%. Next: vs ex-Zero Tenacity, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 20.3 against a 17.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
SMALL EDGE ONLY
Value
THIN
- • Model 21.13 vs line 17.5 → +3.63 (20.7%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 50% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 49.2 rounds · 2-0 55.5% · OT 16.7%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.3
HS/Map
9.57
K/D
1.02
KPR
0.69
ADR
76.3
KAST
75.8%
HS%
62.6%
Multi-kill
17.8%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)10.6 · KPR 0.681 · 24.8r
Map 2 (Mirage)10.4 · KPR 0.677 · 24.4r
Required KPR to clear0.568
Base kills (Maps 1-2)33.41
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.48%
Final projected kills33.57
× realistic HS% (62.6%)21.13
ex-Zero Tenacity gives up (62 series)-4.4% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 17.5. Model: 71.4% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps17.8%
~18 HS · 41r48.9%
Normal51.4%
~21 HS · 48r68.1%
Close maps14.1%
~23 HS · 53r79%
Overtime16.7%
~25 HS · 59r88.7%
Match context
Oct 25, 06:00 PMOnlineNODWIN Clutch Series 13
Win chance source: Polymarket 50.0%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 50% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Dust2
24.8r
-1% KPR here
M2 Mirage
24.4r
-1% KPR here
Total
49.2r
2-0 sweep55.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime16.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)17.8%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 17.5 (Over) · avg 20.3 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
17.5
Nearby lines
| 15.5 Over | 66.1% | |
| 16.5 Over | 63.4% | |
| 17.5 Over | 61.9% | OFFERED |
| 18.5 Over | 58.3% | |
| 19.5 Over | 55.3% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 19
Line movement
first 17.5→17.5no change
- First seen17.5Oct 24, 08:30 PM
Map stats
Dust2
14 maps
Kills
16.5
KPR
0.68
HS%
64.5%
K/D
1
Mirage
8 maps
Kills
16.2
KPR
0.67
HS%
63.8%
K/D
0.98
Cache
6 maps
Kills
11.7
KPR
0.6
HS%
55.7%
K/D
0.9
Inferno
5 maps
Kills
12.4
KPR
0.68
HS%
64.5%
K/D
1.09
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
19.5
KPR
0.77
HS%
64.1%
K/D
1.16
Ancient
3 maps
Kills
13.7
KPR
0.71
HS%
53.7%
K/D
1.11
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | Nemiga | 4 Cache 5-13 | 12 Dust2 13-9 | 16 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | WW | 5 Dust2 13-8 | 9 Mirage 16-14 | 14 | W | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-20 | UPGRADE | 15 Anubis 16-14 | 12 Mirage 13-10 | 27 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-18 | SPARTA | 13 Dust2 13-11 | 14 Mirage 16-13 | 27 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-14 | Sashi | 12 Dust2 13-6 | 11 Cache 10-13 | 23 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-13 | INOX Division | 14 Inferno 13-4 | 19 Dust2 16-14 | 33 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-12 | SPARTA | 11 Inferno 13-7 | 7 Dust2 11-13 | 18 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-08 | Nemiga | 10 Dust2 13-16 | 6 Anubis 6-13 | 16 | L | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-03 | HEROIC | 6 Dust2 6-13 | 7 Inferno 5-13 | 13 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-02 | DENDELE | 7 Mirage 13-8 | 9 Cache 6-13 | 16 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-02 | B8 | 7 Dust2 11-13 | 16 Mirage 13-9 | 23 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-01 | Nuclear TigeRES | 14 Dust2 13-9 | 3 Inferno 2-13 | 17 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | HYPERSPIRIT | 4 Cache 13-7 | 4 Cache 13-7 | 8 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-25 | Butterfly | 3 Ancient 13-2 | 8 Dust2 13-11 | 11 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-24 | EAC | 12 Ancient 13-8 | 18 Anubis 14-16 | 30 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-23 | SPARTA | 18 Dust2 19-22 | 3 Mirage 8-13 | 21 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-21 | Inner Circle Academy | 6 Dust2 13-4 | 11 Anubis 13-9 | 17 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-20 | SPARTA | 12 Dust2 13-11 | 7 Cache 4-13 | 19 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-20 | Metizport | 10 Mirage 11-13 | 5 Inferno 13-8 | 15 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-19 | EAC | 7 Ancient 9-13 | 12 Mirage 13-10 | 19 | Split | Over ✓ |








































































































































































