KillsRisk
Line
25.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
25.67
Hit
41.5%
EV+
-28.1%
Edge
+0.2
L10
30%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
15.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
16.16
Hit
46.9%
EV+
-18.7%
Edge
+0.7
L10
40%

Rifler
fREQ
MEIA NOITE vs Tropa do KinGui
RISK · OVER 25.5
▲ L5 27.2 · L20 25.6Risk · Edge +0.2 far below ±3.0 +1
Hit rates at 25.5 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
30%
3/10
L20
35%
7/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±4.15
Previous meeting · vs Tropa do KinGui
No meeting with Tropa do KinGui in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
27.3
4/7 hit at 25.5
Online · this match
24.6
3/13 hit at 25.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm fREQ is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 25.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 35.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 26+ kills: 0.617 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (47%) or blowout (24.5%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
25.67
Raw edge
+0.2
Cons. hit
41.5%
EV+
-28.1%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
41.3
Line
25.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
41.5%
-2.7 →
Learned
38.8%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 23.5-27.5
All players · Kills
57%207 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 51.7% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +0.2 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 30.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 35.0% at this line
- Blowout loss risk — team only 35% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 30.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 35.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 47% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (25.02) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 25.7 kills vs line 25.5 (3/10 over). KPR 0.62, HS 61%. Next: vs Tropa do KinGui, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 25.7 against a 25.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 25.67 vs line 25.5 → +0.17 (0.7%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 30% over this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 41.3 rounds · 2-0 47% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
12.78
HS/Map
7.8
K/D
0.9
KPR
0.62
ADR
68.7
KAST
77%
HS%
61.1%
Multi-kill
13.8%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)12.8 · KPR 0.636 · 20.2r
Map 2 (Ancient)12.3 · KPR 0.585 · 21.1r
Required KPR to clear0.617
Base kills (Maps 1-2)25.19
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.69%
Final projected kills25.02
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 25.5. Model: 51.7% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24.5%
~22 kills · 35r20%
Normal53%
~26 kills · 42r54.4%
Close maps14.7%
~28 kills · 44r63.2%
Overtime7.8%
~31 kills · 50r84.1%
Match context
Oct 24, 04:00 PMOnline
Win chance source: Polymarket 35.0%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
⚠ Blowout riskBlowout loss risk — team only 35% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
M1 Dust2
20.2r
+8% KPR here
M2 Ancient
21.1r
Total
41.3r
2-0 sweep47%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.5%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 25.5 (Over) · avg 25.7 · hit 3/10 · tap a bar
25.5
Nearby lines
| 23.5 Over | 59.5% | |
| 24.5 Over | 49.2% | below BE |
| 25.5 Over | 41.5% | OFFERED |
| 26.5 Over | 35.8% | below BE |
| 27.5 Over | 28.3% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 25.5
Line movement
first 25.5→offno change
- Pulled25.5Oct 24, 04:12 PM
- Back on board25.5 → 25.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- Pulled25.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- First seen25.5Oct 24, 12:52 PM
Map stats
Ancient
9 maps
Kills
13.9
KPR
0.62
HS%
61.6%
K/D
0.95
Dust2
9 maps
Kills
14.7
KPR
0.69
HS%
62.1%
K/D
1.26
Nuke
8 maps
Kills
12.4
KPR
0.65
HS%
61.6%
K/D
0.83
Cache
5 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.56
HS%
60%
K/D
0.79
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
10.8
KPR
0.46
HS%
53.5%
K/D
0.65
Inferno
2 maps
Kills
8
KPR
0.42
HS%
81.2%
K/D
0.57
Anubis
2 maps
Kills
14.5
KPR
0.64
HS%
58.6%
K/D
1.04
Overpass
1 maps
Kills
7
KPR
0.33
HS%
42.9%
K/D
0.47
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | MEIA NOITE | 5 Inferno 2-13 | 16 Dust2 13-9 | 21 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-10 | MEIA NOITE | 22 Dust2 13-8 | 14 Ancient 6-13 | 36 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-09 | ALKA | 14 Ancient 13-6 | 10 Dust2 13-8 | 24 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-08 | MEIA NOITE | 11 Inferno 10-13 | 19 Ancient 13-10 | 30 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-07-29 | Fluxo | 13 Cache 7-13 | 12 Dust2 13-6 | 25 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-07-28 | LP | 12 Nuke 13-5 | 12 Ancient 10-13 | 24 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-24 | ODDIK | 11 Dust2 8-13 | 12 Cache 13-8 | 23 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-07-18 | Imperial | 7 Nuke 4-13 | 16 Cache 13-10 | 23 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-17 | Fluxo | 8 Nuke 4-13 | 16 Dust2 13-16 | 24 | L | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-07-16 | ShindeN | 15 Nuke 13-5 | 12 Mirage 13-10 | 27 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-15 | Keyd Stars | 6 Ancient 7-13 | 16 Nuke 13-11 | 22 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-07-11 | Keyd Stars | 10 Ancient 11-13 | 7 Nuke 13-8 | 17 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-07-09 | Imperial | 10 Cache 9-13 | 9 Mirage 16-12 | 19 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-07-09 | Fluxo | 7 Mirage 7-13 | 17 Anubis 13-10 | 24 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-07-08 | Keyd Stars | 16 Ancient 16-14 | 9 Cache 13-9 | 25 | W | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-07-07 | MIBR Academy | 15 Mirage 10-13 | 12 Anubis 13-9 | 27 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-06-27 | UNO MILLE | 7 Overpass 8-13 | 18 Ancient 9-13 | 25 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-05-29 | BESTIA | 11 Dust2 13-5 | 18 Nuke 2-13 | 29 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-05-28 | BlackBelt | 14 Dust2 13-2 | 16 Ancient 13-8 | 30 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-05-27 | GameHunters | 16 Nuke 13-9 | 20 Dust2 11-13 | 36 | Split | Over ✓ |









































































































































































