KillsBetter playRisk
Line
26
Pick
UNDER
Projection
25.65
Hit
43.3%
EV+
-25.0%
Edge
-0.3
L10
50%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
16.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
16.79
Hit
42.2%
EV+
-26.9%
Edge
+0.3
L10
50%

Rifler
MATYS
G2 vs Natus Vincere
RISK · UNDER 26
BEST UNDER · UD 26.5PP26UD26.5
≈ L5 26.2 · L20 26.9Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +2LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 26 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
40%
8/20
H2H
50%
1/2
Volatility
High
±9.12
Previous meeting · vs Natus Vincere
1/2 hit · avg 22 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-03 · ESL Pro League Season 24
Cache 7-13 · Inferno 4-13 · L
15
Under 26 ✓
2026-08-30 · BLAST Open Fall 2026
Ancient 13-6 · Inferno 13-10 · W
29
Over 26 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
27.5
7/19 hit at 26
Online
16
1/1 hit at 26
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm MATYS is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 26
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 42.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 25 kills or fewer: below 0.622 KPR over ~42 rounds. Main danger: overtime (14.4%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
25.65
Raw edge
-0.3
Cons. hit
43.3%
EV+
-25.0%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
41.8
Line
26
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
43.3%
-8.3 →
Learned
35%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 24-28
All players · Kills
43.3%201 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 51.5% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -0.3 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- High form volatility
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 40.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 40.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 14% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (25.42) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 28.2 kills vs line 27.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.67, HS 67%. Next: vs Natus Vincere, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 28.2 against a 27.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 25.65 vs line 26 → -0.35 (-1.3%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 50% under this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
- • Expected 41.8 rounds · 2-0 51.5% · OT 14.4%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.45
HS/Map
8.97
K/D
0.93
KPR
0.67
ADR
72.2
KAST
73.3%
HS%
66.7%
Multi-kill
17.3%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)13.2 · KPR 0.631 · 21r
Map 2 (Dust2)12.2 · KPR 0.587 · 20.8r
Required KPR to clear0.622
Base kills (Maps 1-2)25.46
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.16%
Final projected kills25.42
Natus Vincere gives up (51 series)-4.2% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 26. Model: 51.5% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24.5%
~22 kills · 35r71.8%
Normal48.8%
~26 kills · 42r53%
Close maps12.3%
~27 kills · 45r44.7%
Overtime14.4%
~31 kills · 51r29.5%
Match context
Oct 24, 04:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 42.5%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
Game scriptNeutral for Under — team 42% to win (ideal is 40% or lower).
M1 Ancient
21r
-5% KPR here
M2 Dust2
20.8r
-12% KPR here
Total
41.8r
2-0 sweep51.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime14.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.5%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 26 (Under) · avg 28.2 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
26
Nearby lines
| 24 Under | 36.1% | below BE |
| 25 Under | 40.7% | below BE |
| 26 Under | 43.3% | OFFERED |
| 27 Under | 45.9% | below BE |
| 28 Under | 48.5% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 26
Line movement
first 27.5→26-1.5
- Back on board27.5 → 26Oct 24, 10:16 PM
- Pulled27.5Oct 24, 04:15 PM
- First seen27.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Ancient
12 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.62
HS%
65.4%
K/D
0.91
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
11.3
KPR
0.55
HS%
67.1%
K/D
0.93
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
17.3
KPR
0.78
HS%
67.3%
K/D
1.25
Anubis
6 maps
Kills
13.7
KPR
0.61
HS%
67.1%
K/D
0.86
Mirage
5 maps
Kills
15.4
KPR
0.66
HS%
67.5%
K/D
0.89
Cache
4 maps
Kills
10
KPR
0.49
HS%
67.5%
K/D
0.7
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-06 | PARIVISION | 12 Ancient 7-13 | 19 Anubis 13-9 | 31 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-05 | ShindeN | 22 Dust2 13-6 | 20 Ancient 13-9 | 42 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-04 | 1win | 10 Dust2 11-13 | 11 Ancient 13-1 | 21 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | Natus Vincere | 4 Cache 7-13 | 11 Inferno 4-13 | 15 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-13 | Legacy | 10 Ancient 9-13 | 12 Mirage 10-13 | 22 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-12 | BetBoom | 18 Mirage 7-13 | 20 Anubis 16-13 | 38 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-11 | FURIA | 27 Ancient 16-14 | 7 Dust2 13-3 | 34 | W | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-10 | 5star | 26 Inferno 13-9 | 12 Ancient 13-4 | 38 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | 9z | 7 Dust2 11-13 | 10 Ancient 13-8 | 17 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-09 | BIG | 9 Cache 8-13 | 15 Mirage 13-7 | 24 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-08 | Astralis | 9 Ancient 9-13 | 26 Mirage 19-17 | 35 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-04 | Falcons | 17 Inferno 6-13 | 11 Dust2 9-13 | 28 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-31 | Aurora | 7 Anubis 7-13 | 23 Inferno 19-16 | 30 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-30 | Natus Vincere | 13 Ancient 13-6 | 16 Inferno 13-10 | 29 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-28 | Spirit | 12 Dust2 6-13 | 15 Cache 9-13 | 27 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-26 | Aurora | 11 Inferno 13-5 | 17 Anubis 16-12 | 28 | W | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-20 | FURIA | 7 Ancient 3-13 | 9 Anubis 13-3 | 16 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-19 | Astralis | 6 Ancient 6-13 | 10 Dust2 13-6 | 16 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-13 | BIG | 12 Cache 13-5 | 19 Ancient 13-16 | 31 | Split | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-07-25 | Liquid | 10 Anubis 6-13 | 6 Mirage 5-13 | 16 | L | Under ✓ | BO |







































































































































































