KillsBetter playRisk
Line
29.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
29.6
Hit
46.8%
EV+
-18.9%
Edge
+0.1
L10
60%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
17
Pick
OVER
Projection
16.91
Hit
43%
EV+
-25.5%
Edge
-0.1
L10
40%

Rifler
s1ren
BetBoom vs Team Spirit
RISK · OVER 29.5
BEST OVER · UD 28.5PP29.5UD28.5
▲ L5 33.2 · L20 27.2Risk · Edge +0.1 far below ±3.0 +1
Hit rates at 29.5 (Over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
50%
10/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±7.85
Previous meeting · vs Team Spirit
No meeting with Team Spirit in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
26.8
9/19 hit at 29.5
Online
34
1/1 hit at 29.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Veto confirmed — re-check map order
- Confirm s1ren is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 29.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 33.5%
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 30+ kills: 0.66 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (7.8%) or blowout (27.2%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
29.6
Raw edge
+0.1
Cons. hit
46.8%
EV+
-18.9%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
44.7
Line
29.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
46.8%
+8.7 →
Learned
55.5%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 27.5-31.5
All players · Kills
56%332 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 50.5% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +0.1 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 50.0% at this line
- Blowout loss risk — team only 34% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 50.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 8% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (28.05) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 30.4 kills vs line 25.0 (6/10 over). KPR 0.65, HS 58%. Next: vs Spirit, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 30.4 against a 25.0 line
Biggest risk: Normal CS2 variance
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 29.6 vs line 29.5 → +0.1 (0.3%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 60% over this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 44.7 rounds · 2-0 7.8% · OT 18.9%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.6
HS/Map
7.85
K/D
0.94
KPR
0.65
ADR
71.7
KAST
72.5%
HS%
57.7%
Multi-kill
16.3%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Anubis)14.1 · KPR 0.638 · 21.8r
Map 2 (Ancient)13.9 · KPR 0.601 · 22.9r
Required KPR to clear0.66
Base kills (Maps 1-2)27.67
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+1.38%
Final projected kills28.05
Team Spirit gives up (133 series)-1% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 29.5. Model: 50.5% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps27.2%
~25 kills · 38r22.3%
Normal33.6%
~29 kills · 44r43.7%
Close maps20.3%
~32 kills · 48r60.1%
Overtime18.9%
~36 kills · 54r78.7%
Match context
Oct 24, 10:40 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 33.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
⚠ Blowout riskBlowout loss risk — team only 34% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
M1 Anubis
21.8r
+5% KPR here
M2 Ancient
22.9r
-1% KPR here
Total
44.7r
2-0 sweep7.8%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)39.2%
Overtime18.9%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)27.2%
Veto confirmed (bo3.gg): Anubis / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 29.5 (Over) · avg 30.4 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
29.5
Nearby lines
| 27.5 Over | 52.8% | below BE |
| 28.5 Over | 49.9% | below BE |
| 29.5 Over | 46.8% | OFFERED |
| 30.5 Over | 43.8% | below BE |
| 31.5 Over | 40.8% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 29.5
Line movement
first 25→29.5+4.5
- Back on board25 → 29.5Oct 24, 09:06 PM
- Pulled25Oct 24, 10:03 AM
- First seen25Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Mirage
9 maps
Kills
11
KPR
0.56
HS%
60.6%
K/D
0.82
Anubis
7 maps
Kills
16.1
KPR
0.69
HS%
60.2%
K/D
1.11
Nuke
7 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.6
HS%
57.1%
K/D
0.86
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.58
HS%
59.3%
K/D
1.03
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.64
HS%
49%
K/D
0.99
Cache
4 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.64
HS%
60.7%
K/D
0.84
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | FURIA | 12 Dust2 6-13 | 29 Ancient 19-16 | 41 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-17 | Falcons | 12 Anubis 5-13 | 21 Dust2 16-14 | 33 | Split | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-16 | Legacy | 16 Nuke 16-13 | 19 Dust2 11-13 | 35 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-15 | PARIVISION | 13 Ancient 10-13 | 20 Anubis 13-4 | 33 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | FURIA | 16 Ancient 10-13 | 8 Mirage 9-13 | 24 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-06 | 9z | 8 Dust2 8-13 | 14 Mirage 9-13 | 22 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-05 | Aurora | 8 Mirage 4-13 | 12 Nuke 13-7 | 20 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | M80 | 25 Cache 16-14 | 18 Anubis 13-11 | 43 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-03 | FURIA | 7 Mirage 5-13 | 14 Cache 14-16 | 21 | L | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-12 | G2 | 11 Mirage 13-7 | 21 Anubis 13-16 | 32 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-10 | MIBR | 22 Mirage 13-9 | 15 Anubis 16-14 | 37 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-09 | Astralis | 20 Ancient 16-14 | 11 Anubis 13-8 | 31 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-08 | BIG | 18 Cache 13-8 | 15 Nuke 13-9 | 33 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-29 | SPARTA | 15 Mirage 13-4 | 19 Dust2 13-7 | 34 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-14 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 9 Nuke 3-13 | 16 Anubis 11-13 | 25 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-10 | FaZe | 4 Cache 2-13 | 7 Ancient 6-13 | 11 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-03 | Nemesis | 7 Mirage 10-13 | 9 Dust2 13-6 | 16 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-05-17 | Legacy | 7 Mirage 4-13 | 12 Nuke 3-13 | 19 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-05-16 | Natus Vincere | 11 Ancient 8-13 | 8 Nuke 6-13 | 19 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-05-13 | paiN | 3 Dust2 13-11 | 12 Nuke 6-13 | 15 | Split | Under ✗ |







































































































































































