KillsBetter playRisk
Line
32.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
34.38
Hit
59.6%
EV+
+3.3%
Edge
+1.9
L10
70%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
19.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
20.56
Hit
57.8%
EV+
+0.2%
Edge
+1.1
L10
60%

Rifler
Matheos
FOKUS vs ex-6666
RISK · OVER 32.5
≈ L5 35.6 · L20 34.5Risk · Edge +1.9 far below ±3.0
Hit rates at 32.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
53%
8/15
H2H
0%
0/1
Volatility
Medium
±6.84
Previous meeting · vs ex-6666
0/1 hit · avg 29 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-24 · NODWIN Clutch Series 13
Ancient 13-3 · Nuke 16-13 · W
29
Under 32.5 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN
34.5
3/4 hit at 32.5
Online · this match
34.5
5/11 hit at 32.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Matheos is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 32.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 33+ kills: 0.727 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (50%) or blowout (20%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
34.38
Raw edge
+1.9
Cons. hit
59.6%
EV+
+3.3%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
44.7
Line
32.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
59.6%
+8.1 →
Learned
67.7%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 30.5-34.5
All players · Kills
57.2%138 picks
This player
50%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 60.8% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +1.9 below ±3.0 minimum
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 53.3% at this line
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 15 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 53.3% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 50% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (33.86) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 34.8 kills vs line 32.5 (7/10 over). KPR 0.76, HS 59%. Next: vs ex-6666, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 34.8 against a 32.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
- • Model 34.38 vs line 32.5 → +1.88 (5.8%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 70% over this line
- • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
- • Expected 44.7 rounds · 2-0 50% · OT 15.7%
Performance (last 30 maps)
Kills/Map
17.27
HS/Map
10.17
K/D
1.1
KPR
0.76
ADR
80.6
KAST
76%
HS%
58.9%
Multi-kill
20%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Cache)17.5 · KPR 0.763 · 22.8r
Map 2 (Nuke)16.4 · KPR 0.746 · 21.9r
Required KPR to clear0.727
Base kills (Maps 1-2)33.73
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.37%
Final projected kills33.86
ex-6666 gives up (29 series)+2.7% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 32.5. Model: 60.8% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps20%
~29 kills · 38r24.9%
Normal51.6%
~34 kills · 44r57.4%
Close maps12.7%
~37 kills · 48r75%
Overtime15.7%
~41 kills · 54r91.6%
Match context
Oct 24, 08:00 AMOnline
Win chance source: —
Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
M1 Cache
22.8r
M2 Nuke
21.9r
-2% KPR here
Total
44.7r
2-0 sweep50%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)28.4%
Overtime15.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)20%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Cache / Nuke
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 32.5 (Over) · avg 34.8 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
32.5
Nearby lines
| 30.5 Over | 63.2% | |
| 31.5 Over | 61.7% | |
| 32.5 Over | 59.6% | OFFERED |
| 33.5 Over | 55.4% | below BE |
| 34.5 Over | 50.3% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 32.5
Line movement
first 32.5→offno change
- Pulled32.5Oct 24, 08:00 AM
- First seen32.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Cache
10 maps
Kills
17.7
KPR
0.76
HS%
52.5%
K/D
1.11
Nuke
6 maps
Kills
16.3
KPR
0.74
HS%
68.4%
K/D
1.05
Dust2
5 maps
Kills
16.8
KPR
0.74
HS%
58.3%
K/D
1.15
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
22.2
KPR
0.82
HS%
65.2%
K/D
1.11
Anubis
3 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.67
HS%
59.5%
K/D
1
Ancient
2 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.76
HS%
46.4%
K/D
1.22
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | ex-6666 | 11 Ancient 13-3 | 18 Nuke 16-13 | 29 | W | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-21 | UNiTY | 17 Mirage 8-13 | 18 Cache 13-7 | 35 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-20 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 13 Cache 16-13 | 12 Nuke 13-7 | 25 | W | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-02 | BBL | 22 Nuke 13-5 | 15 Cache 4-13 | 37 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-28 | Nemiga | 15 Dust2 6-13 | 37 Mirage 20-22 | 52 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-27 | Iberian Soul | 16 Anubis 13-11 | 19 Cache 13-7 | 35 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-26 | SPARTA | 17 Dust2 14-16 | 17 Cache 13-7 | 34 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-21 | Sangal | 17 Dust2 13-3 | 21 Nuke 11-13 | 38 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-21 | Astralis | 16 Cache 11-13 | 17 Ancient 8-13 | 33 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-21 | Sashi | 15 Dust2 13-11 | 15 Nuke 13-9 | 30 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-13 | Sashi | 20 Dust2 13-11 | 10 Nuke 7-13 | 30 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-12 | Leo | 22 Cache 13-5 | 6 Anubis 13-2 | 28 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-12 | Virtus.pro | 12 Cache 13-11 | 16 Mirage 10-13 | 28 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-10 | 1win | 32 Cache 19-17 | 20 Anubis 13-11 | 52 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-09 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 13 Cache 13-11 | 19 Mirage 13-10 | 32 | W | Under ✗ |








































































































































































