KillsRisk
Line
26.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
25.52
Hit
50.2%
EV+
-13.0%
Edge
-1.0
L10
70%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
15
Pick
UNDER
Projection
14.1
Hit
52.6%
EV+
-8.9%
Edge
-0.9
L10
70%

Rifler
deco
Isurus vs Hacha
RISK · UNDER 15
≈ L5 14.0 · L20 13.7Risk · Edge -0.9 far below ±2.0
Hit rates at 15 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
55%
11/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±4.03
Previous meeting · vs Hacha
No meeting with Hacha in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
13.7
11/20 hit at 15
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm deco is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 15
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 50.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 14 HS or fewer (under ~28 kills at 53.7% HS): below 0.621 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: overtime (7.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
14.1
Raw edge
-0.9
Cons. hit
52.6%
EV+
-8.9%
Rating
4/10
Exp. rounds
45
Line
15
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
52.6%
-3.9 →
Learned
48.7%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 13-17
All players · Headshots
38.6%241 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 58.8% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.9 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 55.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 8% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (14.15) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 13.3 headshots vs line 15.0 (1/10 over). KPR 0.54, HS 54%. Next: vs Hacha, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 13.3 against a 15.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 14.1 vs line 15 → -0.9 (-6.0%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 70% under this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 45 rounds · 2-0 50.5% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
12.75
HS/Map
6.85
K/D
0.85
KPR
0.54
ADR
70.1
KAST
69.9%
HS%
53.7%
Multi-kill
10.6%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)6.8 · KPR 0.556 · 22.9r
Map 2 (Dust2)7.3 · KPR 0.619 · 22.1r
Required KPR to clear0.621
Base kills (Maps 1-2)26.41
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.27%
Final projected kills26.34
× realistic HS% (53.7%)14.1
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 15. Model: 58.8% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps17.9%
~12 HS · 38r78.1%
Normal63.8%
~14 HS · 45r54.8%
Close maps10.5%
~15 HS · 48r45.9%
Overtime7.8%
~17 HS · 54r28.9%
Match context
Oct 23, 10:00 PMOnline
Win chance source: Polymarket 50.5%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptNeutral for Under — team 50% to win (ideal is 40% or lower).
M1 Inferno
22.9r
+3% KPR here
M2 Dust2
22.1r
+15% KPR here
Total
45r
2-0 sweep50.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)18.3%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)17.9%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Inferno / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 15 (Under) · avg 13.3 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
15
Nearby lines
| 13 Under | 32.8% | below BE |
| 14 Under | 44.7% | below BE |
| 15 Under | 52.6% | OFFERED |
| 16 Under | 60.6% | |
| 17 Under | 63.3% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 15
Line movement
first 15→offno change
- Pulled15Oct 23, 12:59 PM
- First seen15Oct 23, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Inferno
13 maps
Kills
12.3
KPR
0.56
HS%
53.8%
K/D
0.81
Dust2
9 maps
Kills
13.6
KPR
0.65
HS%
59.8%
K/D
0.98
Ancient
7 maps
Kills
9.6
KPR
0.48
HS%
50.7%
K/D
0.6
Cache
5 maps
Kills
14.6
KPR
0.72
HS%
53.4%
K/D
1.07
Mirage
3 maps
Kills
11.3
KPR
0.58
HS%
50%
K/D
0.92
Nuke
3 maps
Kills
18
KPR
0.65
HS%
46.3%
K/D
0.9
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | Procyon | 8 Inferno 6-13 | 3 Dust2 3-13 | 11 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-08 | ex-Keyd Stars | 6 Inferno 11-13 | 2 Ancient 9-13 | 8 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-02 | Procyon | 5 Inferno 14-16 | 8 Ancient 10-13 | 13 | L | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-23 | Grêmio | 10 Inferno 7-13 | 13 Cache 13-7 | 23 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-22 | METANOIA Wolves | 6 Dust2 7-13 | 9 Cache 13-10 | 15 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-04 | Peladona | 8 Ancient 13-11 | 6 Inferno 10-13 | 14 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-29 | ShindeN | 5 Inferno 11-13 | 10 Nuke 17-19 | 15 | L | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-28 | Turma do Pagode | 3 Inferno 13-9 | 5 Ancient 6-13 | 8 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-27 | Keyd Stars | 5 Ancient 2-13 | 8 Inferno 13-10 | 13 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-26 | paiN Academy | 5 Mirage 6-13 | 8 Inferno 13-10 | 13 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-25 | ODDIK | 1 Ancient 3-13 | 6 Cache 11-13 | 7 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-13 | Imperial | 1 Cache 1-13 | 4 Inferno 4-13 | 5 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-10 | Grêmio | 6 Inferno 13-5 | 9 Dust2 13-10 | 15 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-09 | BESTIA | 10 Cache 13-7 | 5 Dust2 7-13 | 15 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-06 | METANOIA Wolves | 12 Dust2 13-9 | 6 Mirage 7-13 | 18 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-06 | Yawara | 12 Dust2 13-9 | 6 Mirage 7-13 | 18 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-03 | ODDIK Academy | 5 Ancient 9-13 | 7 Dust2 13-6 | 12 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-07-26 | ODDIK | 9 Nuke 14-16 | 11 Dust2 13-11 | 20 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-07-26 | Fluxo | 8 Inferno 9-13 | 6 Nuke 13-4 | 14 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-25 | BESTIA Academy | 8 Dust2 13-10 | 9 Inferno 13-8 | 17 | W | Over ✗ |








































































































































































