KillsBetter playLean
Line
28.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
25.79
Hit
58.8%
EV+
+1.8%
Edge
-2.7
L10
70%
HeadshotsLean
Line
15.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
13.67
Hit
56.1%
EV+
-2.8%
Edge
-1.8
L10
50%

Rifler
abr
MEIA NOITE vs Tropa do KinGui
LEAN · UNDER 28.5
≈ L5 27.6 · L20 27.9
Hit rates at 28.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
53%
9/17
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±5.49
Previous meeting · vs Tropa do KinGui
No meeting with Tropa do KinGui in his last 17 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
27.9
9/17 hit at 28.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm abr is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 28.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 35.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Kills · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Stays under with 28 kills or fewer: below 0.699 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (11.5%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
25.79
Raw edge
-2.7
Cons. hit
58.8%
EV+
+1.8%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
40.8
Line
28.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
58.8%
-8.7 →
Learned
50.1%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 26.5-30.5
All players · Kills
46.4%334 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 68.9% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -2.7 below ±3.0 minimum
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 52.9% at this line
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 17 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 52.9% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 12% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (25.01) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 26.8 kills vs line 28.5 (3/10 over). KPR 0.63, HS 53%. Next: vs Tropa do KinGui, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 26.8 against a 28.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
- • Model 25.79 vs line 28.5 → -2.71 (-9.5%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 70% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 40.8 rounds · 2-0 47% · OT 11.5%
Performance (last 34 maps)
Kills/Map
13.94
HS/Map
7.44
K/D
1.03
KPR
0.63
ADR
71.3
KAST
75.3%
HS%
53.4%
Multi-kill
16.5%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)12.7 · KPR 0.621 · 20.5r
Map 2 (Dust2)12.3 · KPR 0.609 · 20.3r
Required KPR to clear0.699
Base kills (Maps 1-2)25.1
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.36%
Final projected kills25.01
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 28.5. Model: 68.9% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps25%
~22 kills · 34r91.9%
Normal35%
~25 kills · 40r73.2%
Close maps28.5%
~28 kills · 44r58%
Overtime11.5%
~31 kills · 50r31.6%
Match context
Oct 24, 04:00 PMOnline CCT South America 2026 Series 7
Win chance source: Polymarket 35.0%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
Game scriptIdeal Under range — team 35% to win; the lower the %, the fewer rounds he wins and kills he gets.
M1 Ancient
20.5r
+5% KPR here
M2 Dust2
20.3r
+3% KPR here
Total
40.8r
2-0 sweep47%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)40%
Overtime11.5%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)25%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 28.5 (Under) · avg 26.8 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
28.5
Nearby lines
| 26.5 Under | 49.6% | below BE |
| 27.5 Under | 55.5% | below BE |
| 28.5 Under | 58.8% | OFFERED |
| 29.5 Under | 61.2% | |
| 30.5 Under | 63% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 28.5
Line movement
first 28.5→offno change
- Pulled28.5Oct 24, 04:12 PM
- Back on board28.5 → 28.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- Pulled28.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- First seen28.5Oct 24, 12:52 PM
Map stats
Ancient
11 maps
Kills
14.4
KPR
0.67
HS%
48.7%
K/D
1
Dust2
10 maps
Kills
13.9
KPR
0.65
HS%
56.8%
K/D
1.12
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
12.2
KPR
0.55
HS%
65.3%
K/D
0.84
Cache
3 maps
Kills
15.7
KPR
0.73
HS%
57.4%
K/D
1.27
Inferno
3 maps
Kills
13.7
KPR
0.77
HS%
46.3%
K/D
1.02
Mirage
3 maps
Kills
13.3
KPR
0.67
HS%
47.5%
K/D
0.93
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | Procyon | 11 Inferno 2-13 | 10 Dust2 13-9 | 21 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-10 | Galorys | 14 Dust2 13-8 | 11 Ancient 6-13 | 25 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-09 | ALKA | 14 Ancient 13-6 | 25 Dust2 13-8 | 39 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-08 | QUINTESSÊNCIA | 17 Inferno 10-13 | 14 Ancient 13-10 | 31 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-30 | METANOIA Wolves | 9 Ancient 6-13 | 13 Dust2 13-11 | 22 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-29 | ALKA | 6 Nuke 7-13 | 17 Dust2 9-13 | 23 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-26 | QUINTESSÊNCIA | 13 Dust2 13-4 | 14 Ancient 13-8 | 27 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-25 | ALKA | 13 Nuke 13-10 | 20 Dust2 12-16 | 33 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-24 | Low Cortisol BR | 15 Ancient 8-13 | 9 Dust2 13-6 | 24 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-22 | Turma do Pagode | 14 Nuke 11-13 | 9 Dust2 11-13 | 23 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-22 | Mira | 9 Dust2 2-13 | 23 Ancient 16-12 | 32 | Split | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-19 | QUINTESSÊNCIA | 16 Ancient 8-13 | 13 Cache 13-16 | 29 | L | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-03 | Bounty Hunters | 14 Cache 4-13 | 18 Mirage 8-13 | 32 | L | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-02 | Grêmio | 16 Nuke 13-9 | 17 Ancient 11-13 | 33 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-01 | Procyon | 16 Ancient 10-13 | 13 Inferno 2-13 | 29 | L | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-27 | ex-MIBR Academy | 9 Ancient 5-13 | 17 Mirage 13-16 | 26 | L | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-27 | Sementes do Mal | 20 Cache 13-5 | 5 Mirage 4-6 | 25 | W | Under ✓ | BO |









































































































































































