KillsBetter playRisk
Line
27.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
25.92
Hit
48.7%
EV+
-15.7%
Edge
-1.6
L10
70%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
13
Pick
UNDER
Projection
13.21
Hit
43.7%
EV+
-24.2%
Edge
+0.2
L10
70%

Rifler
2high
UNiTY vs Acend
RISK · UNDER 27.5
PP27.5
▼ L5 22.2 · L20 26.5Risk · Edge -1.6 far below ±3.0
Hit rates at 27.5 (Under)
L5
100%
5/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
63%
12/19
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±7.47
Previous meeting · vs Acend
No meeting with Acend in his last 19 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
31.5
1/4 hit at 27.5
Online · this match
25.2
11/15 hit at 27.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm 2high is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 27.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 59.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 27 kills or fewer: below 0.641 KPR over ~43 rounds. Main danger: overtime (5.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
25.92
Raw edge
-1.6
Cons. hit
48.7%
EV+
-15.7%
Rating
1.7/10
Exp. rounds
42.9
Line
27.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
48.7%
+7.3 →
Learned
56%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 25.5-29.5
All players · Kills
44.1%331 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 58.4% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -1.6 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Under risk — team 60% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 19 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 63.2% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 6% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (27.52) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 25.7 kills vs line 27.5 (3/10 over). KPR 0.64, HS 51%. Next: vs Acend, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 25.7 against a 27.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (73%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (73%) — fewer total rounds
- 26% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 25.92 vs line 27.5 → -1.58 (-5.7%)
- • Form L5 100% · L10 70% under this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 42.9 rounds · 2-0 73% · OT 5.8%
Performance (last 38 maps)
Kills/Map
13.26
HS/Map
6.74
K/D
1.03
KPR
0.64
ADR
72
KAST
73.3%
HS%
50.8%
Multi-kill
17%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)14.7 · KPR 0.689 · 21.7r
Map 2 (Cache)12.9 · KPR 0.619 · 21.2r
Required KPR to clear0.641
Base kills (Maps 1-2)28.07
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.98%
Final projected kills27.52
Acend gives up (32 series)0% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 27.5. Model: 58.4% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps28.4%
~22 kills · 36r82.1%
Normal52.5%
~27 kills · 45r54.7%
Close maps13.3%
~28 kills · 46r51.2%
Overtime5.8%
~31 kills · 52r32.2%
Match context
Oct 25, 09:00 AMOnlineNODWIN Clutch Series 13
Win chance source: Polymarket 59.5%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Heads upUnder risk — team 60% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Mirage
21.7r
+7% KPR here
M2 Cache
21.2r
-4% KPR here
Total
42.9r
2-0 sweep73%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)19.1%
Overtime5.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)28.4%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Cache
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 27.5 (Under) · avg 25.7 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
27.5
Nearby lines
| 25.5 Under | 40.4% | below BE |
| 26.5 Under | 43.6% | below BE |
| 27.5 Under | 48.7% | OFFERED |
| 28.5 Under | 51.7% | below BE |
| 29.5 Under | 54.6% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 27.5
Line movement
first 27.5→27.5no change
- First seen27.5Oct 24, 08:30 PM
Map stats
Mirage
10 maps
Kills
14.4
KPR
0.7
HS%
54.2%
K/D
1.14
Cache
7 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.61
HS%
54.8%
K/D
0.94
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
12.1
KPR
0.57
HS%
50.6%
K/D
0.88
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
13.3
KPR
0.67
HS%
46.2%
K/D
1.25
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.57
HS%
46.4%
K/D
0.88
Anubis
1 maps
Kills
17
KPR
1.13
HS%
52.9%
K/D
3.4
Nuke
1 maps
Kills
10
KPR
0.56
HS%
40%
K/D
0.67
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | Betclic | 10 Ancient 13-11 | 14 Cache 6-13 | 24 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-21 | FOKUS | 14 Mirage 13-8 | 13 Cache 7-13 | 27 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-19 | 9INE | 14 Mirage 13-10 | 3 Cache 3-13 | 17 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-18 | mellren | 11 Mirage 13-5 | 11 Inferno 13-4 | 22 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 8 Mirage 13-6 | 13 Cache 13-11 | 21 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-04 | NT | 21 Mirage 13-9 | 19 Ancient 13-11 | 40 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-04 | NT | 16 Mirage 13-5 | 16 Ancient 9-13 | 32 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | INFINITE | 16 Inferno 13-11 | 20 Mirage 13-7 | 36 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-02 | aimclub | 7 Dust2 13-5 | 11 Cache 13-4 | 18 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-22 | Illyrians | 9 Inferno 13-1 | 11 Dust2 7-13 | 20 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-21 | Leo | 20 Ancient 16-14 | 15 Dust2 13-9 | 35 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-15 | Phantom Academy | 12 Dust2 13-11 | 7 Ancient 13-11 | 19 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-13 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 19 Cache 13-8 | 12 Mirage 6-13 | 31 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-12 | ENCE | 15 Dust2 13-11 | 19 Inferno 13-9 | 34 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-10 | Leo | 15 Mirage 12-16 | 11 Dust2 7-13 | 26 | L | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-08 | MOUZ NXT | 11 Cache 13-8 | 13 Mirage 13-4 | 24 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-07 | EAC | 12 Inferno 8-13 | 10 Nuke 5-13 | 22 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-04 | Black Phoenix | 14 Dust2 13-8 | 17 Anubis 13-2 | 31 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-02 | INOX Division | 12 Ancient 11-13 | 13 Inferno 9-13 | 25 | L | Under ✓ |








































































































































































