KillsBetter playRisk
Line
29
Pick
OVER
Projection
30.49
Hit
56.1%
EV+
-2.8%
Edge
+1.5
L10
50%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
17.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
18.31
Hit
55.2%
EV+
-4.4%
Edge
+0.8
L10
50%

Rifler
b1t
Natus Vincere vs G2
RISK · OVER 17.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP17.5UD17.5
≈ L5 18.2 · L20 17.9Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1
Hit rates at 17.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
60%
12/20
H2H
67%
2/3
Volatility
Medium
±4.89
Previous meeting · vs G2
2/3 hit · avg 17.7 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-03 · ESL Pro League Season 24
Cache 13-7 · Inferno 13-4 · W
23
Over 17.5 ✓
2026-08-30 · BLAST Open Fall 2026
Ancient 6-13 · Inferno 10-13 · L
9
Under 17.5 ✗
2026-06-15 · Intel Extreme Masters Cologne Major 2026
Dust2 13-11 · Inferno 14-16 · Split
21
Over 17.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
17.9
12/20 hit at 17.5
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm b1t is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 17.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 57.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 18+ HS (~31 kills at 58.8% HS): 0.654 KPR over ~46 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (51.5%) or blowout (26.7%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
18.31
Raw edge
+0.8
Cons. hit
55.2%
EV+
-4.4%
Rating
2.4/10
Exp. rounds
45.5
Line
17.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
55.2%
+8.4 →
Learned
63.6%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 15.5-19.5
All players · Headshots
59.3%204 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 56.6% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +0.8 below ±2.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 60.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 52% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (18.36) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 16.9 headshots vs line 18.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.68, HS 59%. Next: vs G2, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 16.9 against a 18.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 18.31 vs line 17.5 → +0.81 (4.6%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 50% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 45.5 rounds · 2-0 51.5% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.28
HS/Map
8.97
K/D
1.19
KPR
0.68
ADR
73.2
KAST
77%
HS%
58.8%
Multi-kill
16.2%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)8.9 · KPR 0.69 · 22.2r
Map 2 (Anubis)9.4 · KPR 0.696 · 23.3r
Required KPR to clear0.654
Base kills (Maps 1-2)31.53
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.00%
Final projected kills31.22
× realistic HS% (58.8%)18.31
G2 gives up (86 series)-1.6% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 17.5. Model: 56.6% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps26.7%
~15 HS · 38r29.1%
Normal46.6%
~19 HS · 47r60.1%
Close maps18.9%
~20 HS · 49r66.1%
Overtime7.8%
~22 HS · 55r81.9%
Match context
Oct 24, 04:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 57.5%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 57% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Inferno
22.2r
+2% KPR here
M2 Anubis
23.3r
+3% KPR here
Total
45.5r
2-0 sweep51.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)26.7%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Inferno / Anubis
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 17.5 (Over) · avg 16.9 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
17.5
Nearby lines
| 15.5 Over | 62% | |
| 16.5 Over | 59.1% | |
| 17.5 Over | 55.2% | OFFERED |
| 18.5 Over | 50.5% | below BE |
| 19.5 Over | 45.6% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 17.5
Line movement
first 18.5→17.5-1
- Back on board17.5 → 17.5Oct 24, 10:16 PM
- Pulled17.5Oct 24, 10:15 PM
- Back on board18.5 → 17.5Oct 24, 10:15 PM
- Pulled18.5Oct 24, 04:15 PM
- First seen18.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Inferno
9 maps
Kills
14.7
KPR
0.69
HS%
59.1%
K/D
1.19
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
15.8
KPR
0.74
HS%
69.5%
K/D
1.12
Anubis
6 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.71
HS%
54.2%
K/D
1.23
Nuke
6 maps
Kills
17.8
KPR
0.89
HS%
54.2%
K/D
1.51
Mirage
5 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.77
HS%
52.6%
K/D
1.09
Cache
4 maps
Kills
14.2
KPR
0.67
HS%
63.2%
K/D
1.19
Dust2
4 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.62
HS%
60.4%
K/D
0.96
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-07 | PARIVISION | 5 Inferno 13-8 | 7 Cache 10-13 | 12 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-06 | Falcons | 8 Inferno 6-13 | 13 Anubis 19-15 | 21 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-05 | 9z | 13 Nuke 13-6 | 9 Cache 13-6 | 22 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-04 | Vitality | 2 Anubis 5-13 | 11 Nuke 13-5 | 13 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | G2 | 14 Cache 13-7 | 9 Inferno 13-4 | 23 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-18 | MOUZ | 6 Cache 13-10 | 15 Inferno 10-13 | 21 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-17 | Aurora | 9 Nuke 8-13 | 5 Mirage 7-13 | 14 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-30 | G2 | 5 Ancient 6-13 | 4 Inferno 10-13 | 9 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-28 | paiN | 9 Nuke 13-9 | 4 Mirage 13-11 | 13 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-26 | M80 | 11 Anubis 13-4 | 10 Mirage 6-13 | 21 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-20 | Legacy | 8 Inferno 9-13 | 11 Ancient 2-13 | 19 | L | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-15 | The MongolZ | 7 Inferno 13-5 | 9 Ancient 9-13 | 16 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-06-15 | G2 | 10 Dust2 13-11 | 11 Inferno 14-16 | 21 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-06-14 | Falcons | 7 Dust2 3-13 | 12 Mirage 13-7 | 19 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-13 | The MongolZ | 10 Nuke 8-13 | 17 Ancient 16-13 | 27 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-06-12 | Legacy | 11 Inferno 13-4 | 8 Ancient 13-10 | 19 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-11 | Spirit | 3 Dust2 1-13 | 9 Anubis 8-13 | 12 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-05-17 | GamerLegion | 9 Mirage 13-3 | 6 Anubis 13-9 | 15 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-05-16 | BetBoom | 16 Ancient 13-8 | 6 Nuke 13-6 | 22 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-05-15 | Vitality | 9 Dust2 11-13 | 11 Anubis 13-11 | 20 | Split | Over ✓ |







































































































































































