KillsRisk
Line
37.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
37.72
Hit
47.4%
EV+
-17.9%
Edge
+0.2
L10
30%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
24
Pick
OVER
Projection
24.43
Hit
51.6%
EV+
-10.7%
Edge
+0.4
L10
40%

Rifler
donk
Team Spirit vs BetBoom
RISK · OVER 24
BEST OVER · PP 24PP24UD24.5
▼ L5 21.6 · L20 24.6Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1
Hit rates at 24 (Over)
L5
20%
1/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
55%
11/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±4.78
Previous meeting · vs BetBoom
No meeting with BetBoom in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
24.6
11/20 hit at 24
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Veto confirmed — re-check map order
- Confirm donk is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 24
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 66.5%
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 25+ HS (~38 kills at 65.1% HS): 0.832 KPR over ~44 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (7.8%) or blowout (20.5%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
24.43
Raw edge
+0.4
Cons. hit
51.6%
EV+
-10.7%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
44.3
Line
24
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
51.6%
-3.3 →
Learned
48.3%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 22-26
All players · Headshots
0%1 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 53.6% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +0.4 below ±2.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 40.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 55.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 8% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (25.65) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 22.9 headshots vs line 25.0 (2/10 over). KPR 0.80, HS 65%. Next: vs BetBoom, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 22.9 against a 25.0 line
Biggest risk: Normal CS2 variance
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 24.43 vs line 24 → +0.43 (1.8%)
- • Form L5 20% · L10 40% over this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
- • Expected 44.3 rounds · 2-0 7.8% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
18.93
HS/Map
12.32
K/D
1.26
KPR
0.8
ADR
85.6
KAST
72.3%
HS%
65.1%
Multi-kill
22%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Anubis)12.7 · KPR 0.852 · 22.7r
Map 2 (Ancient)13 · KPR 0.914 · 21.6r
Required KPR to clear0.832
Base kills (Maps 1-2)39.08
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.81%
Final projected kills39.4
× realistic HS% (65.1%)24.43
BetBoom gives up (64 series)+5.3% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 24. Model: 53.6% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps20.5%
~21 HS · 37r19.3%
Normal44.5%
~24 HS · 44r47%
Close maps27.2%
~26 HS · 47r61.1%
Overtime7.8%
~30 HS · 53r81.2%
Match context
Oct 24, 10:40 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 66.5%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 66% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Anubis
22.7r
+6% KPR here
M2 Ancient
21.6r
+14% KPR here
Total
44.3r
2-0 sweep7.8%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)35%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)20.5%
Veto confirmed (bo3.gg): Anubis / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 24 (Over) · avg 22.9 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
24
Nearby lines
| 22 Over | 59.9% | |
| 23 Over | 56.2% | below BE |
| 24 Over | 51.6% | OFFERED |
| 25 Over | 42.6% | below BE |
| 26 Over | 37.7% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 24
Line movement
first 25→24-1
- Back on board25 → 24Oct 24, 09:06 PM
- Pulled25Oct 24, 10:03 AM
- First seen25Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Dust2
12 maps
Kills
17.5
KPR
0.81
HS%
61.9%
K/D
1.16
Cache
7 maps
Kills
19.7
KPR
0.95
HS%
69.6%
K/D
1.41
Mirage
7 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.76
HS%
63.4%
K/D
1.06
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
21
KPR
0.97
HS%
61.9%
K/D
1.47
Anubis
5 maps
Kills
20.6
KPR
0.88
HS%
68%
K/D
1.26
Nuke
3 maps
Kills
22.7
KPR
0.91
HS%
70.6%
K/D
1.48
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | Aurora | 8 Mirage 9-13 | 11 Anubis 6-13 | 19 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-10 | MOUZ | 5 Dust2 7-13 | 10 Mirage 13-5 | 15 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-09 | Falcons | 8 Mirage 13-8 | 14 Anubis 13-10 | 22 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-07 | M80 | 14 Dust2 13-6 | 16 Cache 13-10 | 30 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-06 | 1win | 11 Cache 5-13 | 11 Anubis 9-13 | 22 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-05 | MOUZ | 5 Dust2 5-13 | 13 Mirage 11-13 | 18 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | PARIVISION | 14 Ancient 11-13 | 11 Dust2 13-6 | 25 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-03 | ShindeN | 11 Dust2 11-13 | 20 Nuke 13-11 | 31 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-06 | MOUZ | 11 Dust2 13-8 | 14 Mirage 11-13 | 25 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-05 | Falcons | 13 Nuke 13-8 | 9 Ancient 13-11 | 22 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-31 | FURIA | 15 Ancient 13-10 | 11 Cache 13-5 | 26 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | G2 | 6 Dust2 13-6 | 8 Cache 13-9 | 14 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-26 | DENDELE | 17 Ancient 13-8 | 19 Cache 13-7 | 36 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-23 | FUT | 16 Cache 10-13 | 19 Anubis 16-13 | 35 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-22 | Legacy | 18 Dust2 13-7 | 14 Ancient 13-9 | 32 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-21 | Vitality | 15 Anubis 13-11 | 15 Nuke 14-16 | 30 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-20 | B8 | 15 Dust2 13-9 | 13 Mirage 13-9 | 28 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-15 | BIG | 15 Cache 9-13 | 7 Dust2 13-10 | 22 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-13 | Luminosity | 9 Ancient 13-3 | 17 Dust2 19-15 | 26 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-02 | MOUZ | 10 Dust2 8-13 | 5 Mirage 4-13 | 15 | L | Under ✗ | BO |







































































































































































