HeadshotsRisk
Line
14.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
15.41
Hit
53.1%
EV+
-8.0%
Edge
+0.9
L10
40%
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Rifler
xureba
Tropa do KinGui vs MEIA NOITE
RISK · OVER 14.5
▲ L5 16.6 · L20 14.1Risk · Edge +0.9 far below ±2.0 +1
Hit rates at 14.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
40%
8/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
High
±5.77
Previous meeting · vs MEIA NOITE
No meeting with MEIA NOITE in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
11.7
0/3 hit at 14.5
Online · this match
14.5
8/17 hit at 14.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm xureba is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 14.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 65.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 15+ HS (~27 kills at 55.2% HS): 0.58 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (47%) or blowout (20.1%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
15.41
Raw edge
+0.9
Cons. hit
53.1%
EV+
-8.0%
Rating
2.7/10
Exp. rounds
45.3
Line
14.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
53.1%
-6.9 →
Learned
46.2%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 12.5-16.5
All players · Headshots
61.7%261 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 56.2% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +0.9 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- High form volatility
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 40.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 40.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 40.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 47% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (14.89) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 15.9 headshots vs line 14.5 (4/10 over). KPR 0.62, HS 55%. Next: vs MEIA NOITE, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 15.9 against a 14.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 15.41 vs line 14.5 → +0.91 (6.3%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 40% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 45.3 rounds · 2-0 47% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
12.78
HS/Map
7.05
K/D
0.87
KPR
0.62
ADR
69.9
KAST
74.3%
HS%
55.2%
Multi-kill
11.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)7.8 · KPR 0.61 · 23.2r
Map 2 (Dust2)7.1 · KPR 0.582 · 22.1r
Required KPR to clear0.58
Base kills (Maps 1-2)27.01
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.12%
Final projected kills26.98
× realistic HS% (55.2%)15.41
MEIA NOITE gives up (46 series)-3.7% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 14.5. Model: 56.2% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps20.1%
~13 HS · 38r34.6%
Normal40.7%
~15 HS · 44r50.6%
Close maps29.2%
~17 HS · 49r60.6%
Overtime10%
~19 HS · 55r73.2%
Match context
Oct 24, 04:00 PMOnline
Win chance source: Polymarket 65.0%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 65% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Ancient
23.2r
-2% KPR here
M2 Dust2
22.1r
-7% KPR here
Total
45.3r
2-0 sweep47%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)39.2%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)20.1%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 14.5 (Over) · avg 15.9 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
14.5
Nearby lines
| 12.5 Over | 64.1% | |
| 13.5 Over | 61.2% | |
| 14.5 Over | 53.1% | OFFERED |
| 15.5 Over | 47% | below BE |
| 16.5 Over | 42.9% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 14.5
Line movement
first 14.5→offno change
- Pulled14.5Oct 24, 04:12 PM
- Back on board14.5 → 14.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- Pulled14.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- First seen14.5Oct 24, 12:52 PM
Map stats
Ancient
14 maps
Kills
13.6
KPR
0.61
HS%
54.2%
K/D
0.93
Dust2
12 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.57
HS%
61.8%
K/D
0.85
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
16.2
KPR
0.67
HS%
50.5%
K/D
1.04
Mirage
5 maps
Kills
8.8
KPR
0.43
HS%
59.1%
K/D
0.63
Anubis
2 maps
Kills
15.5
KPR
0.78
HS%
38.7%
K/D
1.11
Nuke
1 maps
Kills
5
KPR
0.18
HS%
60%
K/D
0.24
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13 | Galorys | 9 Dust2 6-13 | 19 Ancient 14-16 | 28 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-12 | LP | 5 Dust2 5-13 | 5 Inferno 11-13 | 10 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-10 | Yawara | 3 Anubis 7-13 | 10 Dust2 13-6 | 13 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-08 | Isurus | 10 Inferno 13-11 | 7 Ancient 13-9 | 17 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-07 | QUINTESSÊNCIA | 6 Mirage 13-7 | 9 Ancient 13-5 | 15 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | Procyon | 8 Ancient 11-13 | 6 Dust2 13-7 | 14 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-01 | ALKA | 13 Dust2 11-13 | 12 Ancient 13-11 | 25 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | Galorys | 7 Dust2 8-13 | 7 Ancient 11-13 | 14 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-24 | ALKA | 3 Dust2 6-13 | 6 Ancient 9-13 | 9 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-24 | Turma do Pagode | 5 Ancient 13-11 | 9 Anubis 7-13 | 14 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-23 | METANOIA Wolves | 8 Dust2 8-13 | 7 Mirage 13-5 | 15 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-23 | Bounty Hunters | 4 Ancient 5-13 | 3 Mirage 7-13 | 7 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-22 | Grêmio | 11 Inferno 13-11 | 6 Dust2 13-11 | 17 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-03 | Procyon | 9 Ancient 11-13 | 10 Inferno 14-16 | 19 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-27 | Isurus | 0 Ancient 13-2 | 7 Inferno 10-13 | 7 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-26 | Fluxo | 3 Mirage 4-13 | 3 Nuke 12-16 | 6 | L | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-25 | Yawara | 11 Dust2 11-13 | 4 Ancient 13-7 | 15 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-16 | Imperial | 7 Mirage 12-16 | 6 Inferno 7-13 | 13 | L | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-15 | Galorys | 6 Dust2 13-7 | 4 Ancient 11-13 | 10 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-13 | Yawara | 9 Ancient 13-11 | 5 Dust2 10-13 | 14 | Split | Under ✗ |









































































































































































