KillsRisk
Line
28.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
27.06
Hit
44.3%
EV+
-17.1%
Edge
-1.4
L10
30%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
11.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
10.36
Hit
49.5%
EV+
-7.4%
Edge
-1.1
L10
40%
AWPer
regali
Eternal Fire vs Team Nemesis
RISK · UNDER 11.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP11.5UD11.5
≈ L5 12.0 · L20 11.8LAN UNDER · 52% hit
Hit rates at 11.5 (Under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
47%
8/17
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
Previous meeting · vs Team Nemesis
No meeting with Team Nemesis in his last 17 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
11.6
7/14 hit at 11.5
Online
13
1/3 hit at 11.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm regali is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at —
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 88.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 11 HS or fewer: across ~38 rounds. Main danger: overtime (21.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
10.36
Raw edge
-1.1
Cons. hit
49.5%
EV+
-7.4%
Exp. rounds
38.4
Line
11.5
Verdict
Risk
Same-line track record · Under 9.5-13.5
All players · Headshots
50.2%321 picks
This player
40%5 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 12.2 headshots vs line 11.5 (6/10 over). Next: vs Nemesis, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 12.2 against a 11.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 10.36 vs line 11.5 → -1.14 (-9.9%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 40% under this line
- • Expected 38.4 rounds · 2-0 59% · OT 21.8%
Performance (last 34 maps)
Kills/Map
15.44
HS/Map
5.91
K/D
1.11
ADR
71
KAST
73.6%
Multi-kill
16.4%
Kills projection
Team Nemesis gives up (35 series)-13.9% vs norm
Match context
Oct 28, 8:30 AM CTLANStake Ranked Episode 5
Win chance source: Polymarket 81.5% · live
M1 Mirage
19.6r
M2 Cache
18.8r
Total
38.4r
2-0 sweep59%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)44.8%
Overtime21.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)36%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 34 his-team maps + 30 opponent maps + 0 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Cache
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 11.5 (Under) · avg 12.2 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
11.5
Line movement
first 11.5→11.5no change
- First seen11.5Oct 27, 08:04 PM
Map stats
Mirage
9 maps
Kills
13.6
K/D
1
Cache
8 maps
Kills
14.8
K/D
1.18
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
16.6
K/D
1.17
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
15.5
K/D
0.98
Inferno
3 maps
Kills
12.7
K/D
0.97
Ancient
3 maps
Kills
23
K/D
1.44
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-27 | MIBR | 5 Ancient 13-10 | 2 Mirage 10-13 | 7 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-23 | SINNERS | 5 Mirage 6-13 | 4 Cache 16-12 | 9 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-23 | JiJieHao | 10 Ancient 22-20 | 4 Inferno 7-13 | 14 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-22 | SINNERS | 7 Mirage 13-10 | 6 Cache 14-16 | 13 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-21 | BC.Game | 10 Mirage 6-13 | 7 Ancient 13-9 | 17 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-21 | BASEMENT BOYS | 9 Mirage 8-13 | 7 Cache 13-7 | 16 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-20 | INFINITE | 4 Cache 13-1 | 11 Dust2 22-20 | 15 | W | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-03 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 6 Dust2 4-13 | 5 Inferno 11-13 | 11 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | JiJieHao | 6 Dust2 19-15 | 2 Mirage 11-13 | 8 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-03 | Sangal | 5 Dust2 13-5 | 7 Cache 13-11 | 12 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-02 | BASEMENT BOYS | 8 Mirage 12-16 | 6 Cache 13-7 | 14 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-27 | K27 | 2 Dust2 13-8 | 12 Mirage 13-8 | 14 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | Nuclear TigeRES | 3 Anubis 7-13 | 5 Dust2 13-8 | 8 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | WBT | 10 Cache 13-6 | 7 Anubis 19-17 | 17 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-24 | Betclic | 7 Cache 4-13 | 4 Anubis 16-13 | 11 | Split | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-24 | ASTRAL | 5 Inferno 13-6 | 5 Dust2 13-10 | 10 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-24 | JiJieHao | 3 Anubis 10-13 | 2 Mirage 2-13 | 5 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
