HeadshotsRisk
Line
11.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
11.12
Hit
45.4%
EV+
-21.3%
Edge
-0.4
L10
50%
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Rifler · IGL
art
Legacy vs Liquid
RISK · UNDER 11.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP11.5UD11.5
≈ L5 11.2 · L20 11.2Risk · Edge -0.4 far below ±2.0LAN UNDER · 43% hit
Hit rates at 11.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
50%
10/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±1.96
Previous meeting · vs Liquid
No meeting with Liquid in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
11.2
10/20 hit at 11.5
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm arT is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 11.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 67.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 11 HS or fewer (under ~26 kills at 46.3% HS): below 0.55 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: overtime (12.2%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
11.12
Raw edge
-0.4
Cons. hit
45.4%
EV+
-21.3%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
45.2
Line
11.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
45.4%
0 →
Learned
45.4%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 9.5-13.5
All players · Headshots
46.7%242 picks
This player
66.7%3 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 57.7% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.4 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Under risk — team 68% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 50.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT 12% (under 22%) · 45.2 exp. rounds (under 47) · team 68% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 5/10 at this line · projection 0.3 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 11.4 headshots vs line 11.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.55, HS 46%. Next: vs Liquid, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 11.4 against a 11.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 11.12 vs line 11.5 → -0.38 (-3.3%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 50% under this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → ±0.0 rounds/map (learned from 11 real matches) · kill rate −3% KPR
- • Expected 45.2 rounds · 2-0 57.5% · OT 12.2%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
12.1
HS/Map
5.6
K/D
0.77
KPR
0.55
ADR
62.8
KAST
71.7%
HS%
46.3%
Multi-kill
12%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)6.1 · KPR 0.556 · 23.9r
Map 2 (Dust2)5 · KPR 0.506 · 21.3r
Required KPR to clear0.55
Base kills (Maps 1-2)24.07
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.23%
Final projected kills24.01
× realistic HS% (46.3%)11.12
Liquid gives up (41 series)-8.4% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 11.5. Model: 57.7% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24.1%
~9 HS · 38r76.5%
Normal49.2%
~11 HS · 46r55.6%
Close maps14.5%
~12 HS · 48r47.6%
Overtime12.2%
~13 HS · 54r32.2%
Match context
Oct 26, 9:00 AM CTLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 67.5%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → ±0.0 rounds/map (learned from 11 real matches) · kill rate −3% KPR
Heads upUnder risk — team 68% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Ancient
23.9r
+4% KPR here
M2 Dust2
21.3r
-5% KPR here
Total
45.2r
2-0 sweep57.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime12.2%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.1%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 40 his-team maps + 24 opponent maps + 0 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 11.5 (Under) · avg 11.4 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
11.5
Nearby lines
| 9.5 Under | 15.1% | below BE |
| 10.5 Under | 31.4% | below BE |
| 11.5 Under | 45.4% | OFFERED |
| 12.5 Under | 60.7% | |
| 13.5 Under | 64.5% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 11.5
Line movement
first 11.5→11.5no change
- First seen11.5Oct 25, 10:14 PM
Map stats
Ancient
10 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.58
HS%
44.3%
K/D
0.88
Dust2
9 maps
Kills
11.1
KPR
0.51
HS%
51%
K/D
0.72
Mirage
8 maps
Kills
11.8
KPR
0.49
HS%
47.9%
K/D
0.72
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
12.4
KPR
0.48
HS%
46.8%
K/D
0.65
Inferno
4 maps
Kills
11.8
KPR
0.6
HS%
46.8%
K/D
0.94
Cache
3 maps
Kills
11
KPR
0.52
HS%
36.4%
K/D
0.75
Overpass
1 maps
Kills
8
KPR
0.47
HS%
37.5%
K/D
0.73
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | DENDELE | 3 Cache 13-9 | 9 Mirage 19-17 | 12 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-24 | Nemiga | 10 Ancient 23-25 | 1 Dust2 8-13 | 11 | L | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-16 | BetBoom | 5 Nuke 13-16 | 3 Dust2 13-11 | 8 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-15 | FURIA | 5 Cache 13-10 | 5 Inferno 5-13 | 10 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | PARIVISION | 8 Dust2 13-11 | 7 Mirage 16-14 | 15 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-13 | G2 | 6 Ancient 13-9 | 6 Mirage 13-10 | 12 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-12 | MIBR | 4 Nuke 13-10 | 6 Ancient 11-13 | 10 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-10 | FURIA | 2 Mirage 13-7 | 8 Ancient 13-9 | 10 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-09 | Alliance | 5 Inferno 13-4 | 9 Dust2 13-6 | 14 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-08 | magic | 5 Ancient 13-7 | 7 Dust2 7-13 | 12 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-30 | Vitality | 6 Nuke 14-16 | 4 Mirage 13-9 | 10 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-29 | Falcons | 6 Mirage 6-13 | 7 Ancient 13-10 | 13 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-27 | FUT | 6 Ancient 13-10 | 7 Dust2 13-11 | 13 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-23 | FURIA | 6 Ancient 9-13 | 8 Nuke 13-9 | 14 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-22 | Spirit | 5 Dust2 7-13 | 4 Ancient 9-13 | 9 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-21 | Falcons | 8 Mirage 13-7 | 4 Dust2 13-10 | 12 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-20 | Natus Vincere | 8 Inferno 13-9 | 4 Ancient 13-2 | 12 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-16 | MIBR | 6 Nuke 13-11 | 4 Inferno 13-8 | 10 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-13 | FaZe | 4 Cache 6-13 | 3 Mirage 8-13 | 7 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-06-14 | G2 | 7 Dust2 7-13 | 3 Overpass 4-13 | 10 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
