CS2 LAB
V1.0
KillsRisk
Line
28.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
28.79
Hit
50.6%
EV+
-5.3%
Edge
+0.3
L10
60%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
14.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
15.02
Hit
53.9%
EV+
+0.9%
Edge
+0.5
L10
60%
Dragon
Rifler
Dragon
ex-Zero Tenacity vs Nuclear TigeRES
54%HIT CHANCE
RISK · OVER 14.5
≈ L5 15.8 · L20 15.9Risk · Edge +0.5 far below ±2.0
Hit rates at 14.5 (Over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
60%
12/20
H2H
0%
0/1
Volatility
Medium
±5.08
Previous meeting · vs Nuclear TigeRES
0/1 hit · avg 14 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-09-25 · Stake Ranked Episode 5: Closed Qualifier
Inferno 13-7 · Dust2 14-16 · Split
14
Under 14.5 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
15.9
12/20 hit at 14.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
  • Map veto (currently estimated)
  • Confirm Dragon is in the starting five
  • Re-check line: PASS at 14.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 38.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 15+ HS (~29 kills at 52.6% HS): 0.661 KPR over ~42 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (51.7%) or blowout (25.7%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
15.02
Raw edge
+0.5
Cons. hit
53.9%
EV+
+0.9%
Rating
3.8/10
Exp. rounds
41.7
Line
14.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
53.9%
0 →
Learned
53.9%
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 12.5-16.5
All players · Headshots
59.5%341 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 52.1% → −8% haircut · cap 74% · per-leg 1.871x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
  • Edge +0.5 below ±2.0 minimum
  • Near the blowout zone — team 39% to win (ideal for Overs: 40-70%).
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 60.0% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
Game script fits · 41.7 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 26% (under 40%) · team 39% to win (20%+)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk

Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 15.5 headshots vs line 14.5 (6/10 over). KPR 0.72, HS 53%. Next: vs Nuclear TigeRES, Online.

Strongest: L10 average 15.5 against a 14.5 line

Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency

  • Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
  • • Model 15.02 vs line 14.5 → +0.52 (3.6%)
  • • Form L5 80% · L10 60% over this line
  • • Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 15 real matches) · kill rate −6% KPR
  • • Expected 41.7 rounds · 2-0 51.7% · OT 5.6%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.15
HS/Map
7.97
K/D
1.18
KPR
0.72
ADR
78.8
KAST
78.9%
HS%
52.6%
Multi-kill
17.4%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Cache)7.5 · KPR 0.704 · 20.6r
Map 2 (Dust2)7.9 · KPR 0.716 · 21.1r
Required KPR to clear0.661
Base kills (Maps 1-2)29.62
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.10%
Final projected kills29.29
× realistic HS% (52.6%)15.02
Nuclear TigeRES gives up (38 series)-4.4% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 14.5. Model: 52.1% before the safety haircut.
5678910111213141516171819202122232425262728line 14.5
Lopsided maps25.7%
~13 HS · 35r31.2%
Normal39.3%
~15 HS · 43r54.1%
Close maps29.4%
~16 HS · 45r59.9%
Overtime5.6%
~18 HS · 51r74.8%
Match context
Oct 24, 05:00 PMOnlineCCT Europe 2026 Series 11
HLTV #67VRS #75HLTV #50VRS #47
ex-Zero Tenacity 39%61% Nuclear TigeRES
Win chance source: Polymarket 38.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 15 real matches) · kill rate −6% KPR
Heads upNear the blowout zone — team 39% to win (ideal for Overs: 40-70%).
M1 Cache
20.6r
+4% KPR here
M2 Dust2
21.1r
+6% KPR here
Total
41.7r
2-0 sweep51.7%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)35%
Overtime5.6%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)25.7%

2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.

Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Cache / Dust2

Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 14.5 (Over) · avg 15.5 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
14.5
Nearby lines
12.5 Over65.5%
13.5 Over60.5%
14.5 Over53.9%OFFERED
15.5 Over46.8%below BE
16.5 Over40%below BE
Break-even per leg: 53.5%
Becomes a PASS at: 14.5
Line movement
first 14.5→offno change
  1. Pulled14.5
    Oct 24, 05:06 PM
  2. Back on board14.5 → 14.5
    Oct 24, 12:53 PM
  3. Pulled14.5
    Oct 24, 12:53 PM
  4. First seen14.5
    Oct 24, 12:52 PM
Map stats
Cache
9 maps
Kills
16.4
KPR
0.76
HS%
52%
K/D
1.26
Dust2
9 maps
Kills
17.3
KPR
0.78
HS%
56.4%
K/D
1.23
Inferno
8 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.67
HS%
47.9%
K/D
1.07
Mirage
8 maps
Kills
15.1
KPR
0.79
HS%
43.8%
K/D
1.38
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
13.8
KPR
0.62
HS%
63.8%
K/D
0.92
Anubis
1 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.76
HS%
68.8%
K/D
1.07
Recent Maps 1-2 results
DateOppMap 1Map 2TotalTeamPropFlags
2026-10-20FOKUS15 Cache 13-165 Nuke 7-1320LOver ✓OT
2026-10-20FORZE Reload14 Dust2 13-105 Cache 11-1319SplitOver ✓
2026-10-19Bushido Wildcats13 Mirage 13-76 Inferno 13-119WOver ✓BO
2026-10-16UNiTY3 Mirage 6-133 Cache 11-136LUnder ✗
2026-10-15Just Players7 Mirage 13-78 Cache 13-415WOver ✓BO
2026-10-08Acend13 Cache 13-1010 Inferno 11-1323SplitOver ✓
2026-10-06MASONIC7 Nuke 9-135 Dust2 13-212SplitUnder ✗BO
2026-10-05Leo7 Nuke 10-1312 Dust2 13-1119SplitOver ✓
2026-10-02Butterfly5 Inferno 13-117 Mirage 13-212WUnder ✗BO
2026-10-01EAC8 Inferno 13-72 Mirage 7-1310SplitUnder ✗
2026-09-28Black Phoenix9 Dust2 13-119 Cache 13-1118WOver ✓
2026-09-27Saint Sinners0 Inferno 0-112 Mirage 13-912SplitUnder ✗BO
2026-09-25Illyrians6 Mirage 7-136 Cache 13-212SplitUnder ✗BO
2026-09-25Nuclear TigeRES3 Inferno 13-711 Dust2 14-1614SplitUnder ✗OT
2026-09-24BIG Academy11 Cache 13-58 Dust2 13-619WOver ✓BO
2026-09-23STATE9 Inferno 13-913 Nuke 10-1322SplitOver ✓
2026-09-22Black Phoenix11 Anubis 13-89 Dust2 13-1020WOver ✓
2026-09-21INOX Division7 Cache 13-812 Nuke 13-1119WOver ✓
2026-09-19PCIFIC5 Inferno 5-1312 Dust2 13-717SplitOver ✓BO
2026-09-16Teletubisie8 Dust2 10-133 Mirage 5-1311LUnder ✗BO
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