HeadshotsTake
Line
15.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
19.15
Hit
65.1%
EV+
+21.7%
Edge
+3.6
L10
88%
Loading…
Rifler
flouzer
Nuclear TigeRES vs FORZE Reload
TAKE · OVER 15.5
PP16
▼ L5 16.4 · L20 18.4
Hit rates at 15.5 (Over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
88%
7/8
L20
88%
7/8
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±4.5
Previous meeting · vs FORZE Reload
No meeting with FORZE Reload in his last 8 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
18.4
7/8 hit at 15.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm flouzer is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 17.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 61.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Headshots · Maps 1-2Take
What to watch · Needs 16+ HS (~27 kills at 59.8% HS): 0.562 KPR over ~46 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (49.5%) or blowout (12.8%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
19.15
Raw edge
+3.6
Cons. hit
65.1%
EV+
+21.7%
Rating
9.5/10
Exp. rounds
46.1
Line
15.5
Verdict
Take
Plain model
65.1%
0 →
Learned
65.1%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 13.5-17.5
All players · Headshots
56.8%435 picks
This player
100%3 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 79.1% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.871x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
Clears edge, form, EV+, volatility and every sharp check
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 8 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 87.5% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 87.5% at this line
Game script fits · 46.1 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 13% (under 40%) · team 61% to win (20%+)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 7/8 at this line · projection 0.8 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 8 series Maps 1-2: avg 18.4 headshots vs line 15.5 (7/8 over). KPR 0.69, HS 60%. Next: vs FORZE Reload, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 18.4 against a 15.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
TAKE OVER
Value
VALUE
- • Model 19.15 vs line 15.5 → +3.65 (23.5%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 87.5% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 24 real matches) · kill rate −3% KPR
- • Expected 46.1 rounds · 2-0 49.5% · OT 11.9%
Performance (last 16 maps)
Kills/Map
15.38
HS/Map
9.19
K/D
1.02
KPR
0.69
ADR
76.4
KAST
72.7%
HS%
59.8%
Multi-kill
16.6%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)10 · KPR 0.668 · 24.9r
Map 2 (Anubis)9.2 · KPR 0.72 · 21.2r
Required KPR to clear0.562
Base kills (Maps 1-2)31.89
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.41%
Final projected kills32.02
× realistic HS% (59.8%)19.15
FORZE Reload gives up (41 series)-2.5% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 15.5. Model: 79.1% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps12.8%
~16 HS · 39r53.9%
Normal58.9%
~19 HS · 45r75.6%
Close maps16.4%
~21 HS · 49r86.1%
Overtime11.9%
~23 HS · 55r94.3%
Match context
Oct 24, 9:00 AM CTOnlineNODWIN Clutch Series 13
Win chance source: Polymarket 61.0%
Close match (45–65%) → +1.0 rounds/map (learned from 24 real matches) · kill rate −3% KPR
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 61% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Dust2
24.9r
-1% KPR here
M2 Anubis
21.2r
+7% KPR here
Total
46.1r
2-0 sweep49.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)28.3%
Overtime11.9%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)12.8%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Anubis
Recent Maps 1-2 form
8 series · line 15.5 (Over) · avg 18.4 · hit 7/8 · tap a bar
15.5
Nearby lines
| 13.5 Over | 66.3% | |
| 14.5 Over | 65.8% | |
| 15.5 Over | 65.1% | OFFERED |
| 16.5 Over | 61.8% | |
| 17.5 Over | 59.2% |
Break-even per leg: 53.5%
Becomes a PASS at: 17.5
Line movement
first 15.5→offno change
- Pulled16.5Oct 23, 02:06 PM
- Moved up15.5 → 16.5Oct 23, 02:04 PM
- Back on board15.5 → 15.5Oct 23, 07:55 AM
- Pulled15.5Oct 23, 07:54 AM
- First seen15.5Oct 23, 07:54 AM
Map stats
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
17.1
KPR
0.69
HS%
62.5%
K/D
0.99
Anubis
3 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.79
HS%
53.3%
K/D
1.41
Inferno
2 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.62
HS%
66.7%
K/D
0.96
Ancient
2 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.68
HS%
57.1%
K/D
0.9
Nuke
1 maps
Kills
18
KPR
0.82
HS%
61.1%
K/D
1.2
Mirage
1 maps
Kills
11
KPR
0.52
HS%
45.5%
K/D
0.65
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-14 | LPH | 11 Nuke 13-9 | 7 Anubis 13-4 | 18 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | Eternal Fire | 6 Anubis 13-7 | 13 Dust2 8-13 | 19 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 8 Inferno 7-13 | 11 Dust2 16-14 | 19 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-10 | SINNERS | 8 Inferno 13-6 | 2 Dust2 8-13 | 10 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-09 | INOX Division | 12 Ancient 13-9 | 4 Dust2 8-13 | 16 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-07 | CYBERSHOKE | 12 Dust2 13-9 | 11 Anubis 7-13 | 23 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-05 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 11 Dust2 11-13 | 5 Mirage 8-13 | 16 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-04 | HEROIC | 4 Ancient 6-13 | 22 Dust2 17-19 | 26 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
