CS2 LAB
V1.0
KillsRisk
Line
26.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
26.73
Hit
46%
EV+
-20.3%
Edge
+0.2
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
14
Pick
OVER
Projection
14.76
Hit
47.8%
EV+
-17.1%
Edge
+0.8
L10
50%
nin9
Rifler
nin9
The MongolZ vs MOUZ
48%HIT CHANCE
RISK · OVER 14
BEST OVER · UD 13.5PP14UD13.5
▼ L5 14.8 · L20 15.6Risk · Edge +0.8 far below ±2.0 +2
Hit rates at 14 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
55%
11/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
High
±6.26
Previous meeting · vs MOUZ
No meeting with MOUZ in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
14.9
3/8 hit at 14
Online
16.1
8/12 hit at 14
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
  • Map veto (currently estimated)
  • Confirm nin9 is in the starting five
  • Re-check line: PASS at 14
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 24.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 15+ HS (~26 kills at 57.9% HS): 0.608 KPR over ~40 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (55.5%) or blowout (33%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
14.76
Raw edge
+0.8
Cons. hit
47.8%
EV+
-17.1%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
39.8
Line
14
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
47.8%
0 →
Learned
47.8%
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 12-16
All players · Headshots
58%281 picks
This player
25%4 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 49.4% → −8% haircut · cap 74% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
  • Edge +0.8 below ±2.0 minimum
  • EV+ not positive at current payout
  • High form volatility
  • Blowout loss risk — team only 25% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 55.0% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
Game script fits · 39.8 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 33% (under 40%) · team 25% to win (20%+)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk

Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 16.7 headshots vs line 14.0 (5/10 over). KPR 0.69, HS 58%. Next: vs MOUZ, LAN.

Strongest: L10 average 16.7 against a 14.0 line

Biggest risk: 26% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)

  • 26% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
  • Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
  • • Model 14.76 vs line 14 → +0.76 (5.4%)
  • • Form L5 40% · L10 50% over this line
  • • Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 15 real matches) · kill rate −6% KPR
  • • Expected 39.8 rounds · 2-0 55.5% · OT 5.6%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.47
HS/Map
7.8
K/D
0.97
KPR
0.69
ADR
78.2
KAST
72.3%
HS%
57.9%
Multi-kill
18.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)6.6 · KPR 0.577 · 20.1r
Map 2 (Dust2)7.7 · KPR 0.684 · 19.7r
Required KPR to clear0.608
Base kills (Maps 1-2)25.08
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.68%
Final projected kills24.66
× realistic HS% (57.9%)14.76
MOUZ gives up (78 series)-5.3% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 14. Model: 49.4% before the safety haircut.
45678910111213141516171819202122232425262728line 14
Lopsided maps33%
~12 HS · 33r31.5%
Normal40.3%
~16 HS · 42r53.7%
Close maps21.1%
~16 HS · 43r54.3%
Overtime5.6%
~18 HS · 49r67.7%
Match context
Oct 26, 08:00 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
HLTV #20VRS #18HLTV #4VRS #2
The MongolZ 25%75% MOUZ
Win chance source: Polymarket 24.5% · live
Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 15 real matches) · kill rate −6% KPR
⚠ Blowout riskBlowout loss risk — team only 25% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
M1 Inferno
20.1r
-11% KPR here
M2 Dust2
19.7r
+6% KPR here
Total
39.8r
2-0 sweep55.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime5.6%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)33%

2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 40 his-team maps + 30 opponent maps + 0 past-meeting maps.

Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Inferno / Dust2

Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 14 (Over) · avg 16.7 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
14
Nearby lines
12 Over61.3%
13 Over55.1%below BE
14 Over47.8%OFFERED
15 Over40.8%below BE
16 Over34.3%below BE
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 14
Line movement
first 14→14no change
  1. First seen14
    Oct 26, 03:14 AM
Map stats
Inferno
11 maps
Kills
12.4
KPR
0.59
HS%
55.9%
K/D
0.88
Dust2
9 maps
Kills
15.3
KPR
0.74
HS%
63.8%
K/D
1.11
Ancient
8 maps
Kills
14.4
KPR
0.69
HS%
57.4%
K/D
1.07
Mirage
5 maps
Kills
11.8
KPR
0.62
HS%
50.8%
K/D
0.92
Cache
4 maps
Kills
7.5
KPR
0.41
HS%
60%
K/D
0.57
Nuke
3 maps
Kills
20.3
KPR
0.77
HS%
55.7%
K/D
1.13
Recent Maps 1-2 results
DateOppMap 1Map 2TotalTeamPropFlags
2026-10-25Vitality7 Inferno 6-134 Cache 3-1311LUnder ✗BO
2026-10-24Aurora9 Inferno 12-169 Nuke 13-218SplitOver ✓OTBO
2026-10-22PARIVISION10 Ancient 13-611 Mirage 13-1121WOver ✓
2026-10-22BIG3 Cache 4-137 Inferno 13-310SplitUnder ✗BO
2026-10-21PRIVATE8 Mirage 13-66 Ancient 13-714WUnder ✗
2026-10-21magic3 Inferno 13-98 Ancient 13-1011WUnder ✗
2026-10-20BIG5 Cache 8-135 Mirage 4-1310LUnder ✗BO
2026-10-19Alliance13 Inferno 13-811 Dust2 13-1124WOver ✓
2026-09-28NEXVOID17 Nuke 20-2212 Ancient 11-1329LOver ✓OT
2026-09-27The Huns4 Ancient 13-115 Dust2 13-1019WOver ✓BO
2026-09-26The Huns2 Dust2 3-131 Mirage 13-83SplitUnder ✗BO
2026-09-25Lynn Vision8 Nuke 9-138 Inferno 11-1316LOver ✓
2026-09-23XDM5 Inferno 7-1310 Ancient 13-1115SplitOver ✓
2026-09-22The KnockoutX13 Dust2 13-96 Ancient 9-1319SplitOver ✓
2026-09-02The Huns5 Inferno 7-1315 Dust2 13-920SplitOver ✓
2026-09-02Kaleido6 Inferno 5-1313 Dust2 7-1319LOver ✓BO
2026-09-02The Huns3 Inferno 6-135 Mirage 1-138LUnder ✗BO
2026-09-01The Huns4 Dust2 7-1310 Inferno 13-914SplitUnder ✗
2026-08-31The Huns6 Cache 13-78 Dust2 13-214WUnder ✗BO
2026-08-29The Huns7 Dust2 13-1110 Ancient 7-1317SplitOver ✓
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