CS2 PROP LAB
V1.0
HeadshotsNeutral
Line
14.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
16.52
Hit
57.1%
EV+
-1.1%
Edge
+2.0
L10
80%
Loading…
robo
Rifler · IGL
robo
Nemiga Gaming vs Legacy
57%HIT CHANCE
NEUTRAL · OVER 14.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP14.5UD14.5
▲ L5 18.4 · L20 17.1
Hit rates at 14.5 (Over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
80%
8/10
L20
70%
14/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±5.17
Previous meeting · vs Legacy
No meeting with Legacy in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
22.3
4/4 hit at 14.5
Online
15.9
10/16 hit at 14.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
  • Map veto (currently estimated)
  • Confirm robo is in the starting five
  • Re-check line: PASS at 14.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 31.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Neutral
What to watch · Needs 15+ HS (~27 kills at 56.1% HS): 0.605 KPR over ~43 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (57%) or blowout (27.8%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
16.52
Raw edge
+2.0
Cons. hit
57.1%
EV+
-1.1%
Rating
4.9/10
Exp. rounds
42.7
Line
14.5
Verdict
Neutral
Plain model
57.1%
+8.3 →
Learned
65.4%
learning 0.5x
Same-line track record · Over 12.5-16.5
All players · Headshots
54.8%219 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 62.9% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
  • EV+ not positive at current payout
  • Blowout loss risk — team only 32% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 80.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 70.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 57% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (15.71) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk

Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 18.1 headshots vs line 14.5 (8/10 over). KPR 0.74, HS 56%. Next: vs Legacy, LAN.

Strongest: L10 average 18.1 against a 14.5 line

Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency

  • Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
SMALL EDGE ONLY
Value
NO VALUE
  • • Model 16.52 vs line 14.5 → +2.02 (13.9%)
  • • Form L5 80% · L10 80% over this line
  • • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
  • • Expected 42.7 rounds · 2-0 57% · OT 16.7%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.28
HS/Map
8.57
K/D
1.04
KPR
0.74
ADR
82
KAST
77.3%
HS%
56.1%
Multi-kill
19.2%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Cache)7.7 · KPR 0.717 · 19.2r
Map 2 (Mirage)8 · KPR 0.61 · 23.5r
Required KPR to clear0.605
Base kills (Maps 1-2)28.11
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.36%
Final projected kills28
× realistic HS% (56.1%)16.52
Legacy gives up (79 series)-1.2% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 14.5. Model: 62.9% before the safety haircut.
5678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031line 14.5
Lopsided maps27.8%
~14 HS · 36r41.7%
Normal49.7%
~17 HS · 43r65.9%
Close maps5.8%
~18 HS · 46r72.9%
Overtime16.7%
~20 HS · 52r85.6%
Match context
Oct 24, 01:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
HLTV #24VRS #21HLTV #7VRS #7
Nemiga Gaming 32%68% Legacy
Win chance source: Polymarket 31.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
⚠ Blowout riskBlowout loss risk — team only 32% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
M1 Cache
19.2r
+2% KPR here
M2 Mirage
23.5r
-13% KPR here
Total
42.7r
2-0 sweep57%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime16.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)27.8%

Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Cache / Mirage

Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 14.5 (Over) · avg 18.1 · hit 8/10 · tap a bar
14.5
Nearby lines
12.5 Over62.9%
13.5 Over60.5%
14.5 Over57.1%OFFERED
15.5 Over50.9%below BE
16.5 Over46.2%below BE
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 14.5
Line movement
first 14.5→14.5no change
  1. First seen14.5
    Oct 23, 05:17 PM
Map stats
Mirage
9 maps
Kills
15.8
KPR
0.62
HS%
57.7%
K/D
0.88
Cache
9 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.77
HS%
50.4%
K/D
1.23
Ancient
8 maps
Kills
15.6
KPR
0.77
HS%
65.6%
K/D
1.12
Dust2
6 maps
Kills
15.8
KPR
0.69
HS%
53.7%
K/D
1.07
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
12.8
KPR
0.61
HS%
47.1%
K/D
0.84
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.73
HS%
57.4%
K/D
1.17
Recent Maps 1-2 results
DateOppMap 1Map 2TotalTeamPropFlags
2026-10-10Iberian Soul4 Cache 7-1311 Nuke 16-1315SplitOver ✓OT
2026-10-08Lavked4 Anubis 13-55 Dust2 13-49WUnder ✗BO
2026-10-04Astralis11 Mirage 6-139 Ancient 13-1020SplitOver ✓
2026-10-03Luminosity9 Cache 13-1114 Dust2 16-1323WOver ✓OT
2026-10-02Alliance8 Cache 13-617 Ancient 13-825WOver ✓
2026-10-01FaZe8 Mirage 16-1213 Ancient 13-1121WOver ✓OT
2026-09-28BET-M8 Anubis 13-109 Nuke 13-617WOver ✓
2026-09-28FOKUS7 Dust2 13-616 Mirage 22-2023WOver ✓OT
2026-09-27Color8 Cache 13-510 Dust2 9-1318SplitOver ✓BO
2026-09-26Black Phoenix5 Cache 13-95 Dust2 9-1310SplitUnder ✗
2026-09-25INOX Division7 Nuke 13-27 Ancient 13-1014WUnder ✗BO
2026-09-24Just Players4 Mirage 13-98 Cache 13-612WUnder ✗
2026-09-14Metizport10 Mirage 16-148 Nuke 13-818WOver ✓OT
2026-09-13SINNERS7 Cache 13-108 Mirage 13-1015WOver ✓
2026-09-12Just Players7 Ancient 13-613 Cache 13-320WOver ✓BO
2026-09-10K279 Anubis 10-137 Mirage 13-916SplitOver ✓
2026-09-09HOTU5 Ancient 3-137 Cache 13-412SplitUnder ✗BO
2026-09-08Color10 Dust2 16-133 Anubis 13-613WUnder ✗OT
2026-09-06FOKUS12 Mirage 16-148 Ancient 13-320WOver ✓OTBO
2026-09-05Nemesis6 Mirage 13-116 Ancient 13-722WOver ✓BO
KILLS · HEADSHOTS · MAPS 1-2

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