KillsBetter playRisk
Line
29
Pick
UNDER
Projection
24.81
Hit
54.8%
EV+
-5.1%
Edge
-4.2
L10
30%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
17
Pick
UNDER
Projection
14.89
Hit
51%
EV+
-11.7%
Edge
-2.1
L10
30%
Rifler
d1Ledez
BetBoom vs Natus Vincere
RISK · UNDER 29
BEST UNDER · UD 29.5PP29UD29.5
≈ L5 30.4 · L20 29.6Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other wayLAN UNDER · 43% hitL10 4/10 BLOCK
Hit rates at 29 (Under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
30%
3/10
L20
45%
9/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±4.07
Previous meeting · vs Natus Vincere
No meeting with Natus Vincere in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
29.6
9/20 hit at 29
Online
—
no series
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm d1Ledez is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 29
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 37.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 28 kills or fewer: below 0.702 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (18.9%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
24.81
Raw edge
-4.2
Cons. hit
54.8%
EV+
-5.1%
Rating
3.8/10
Exp. rounds
41.3
Line
29
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
54.8%
0 →
Learned
54.8%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 27-31
All players · Kills
45.2%394 picks
This player
100%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 73.9% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 form (4/10 rule): L10 3/10 at this line · projection 5.4 from his L10 avg · blocked
Sharp checks · 4/5 active
L10 only 30% at this line (under 50%)
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 30.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 45.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT 19% (under 22%) · 41.3 exp. rounds (under 47) · team 37% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 3/10 at this line · projection 5.4 from his L10 avg · blocked
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 30.2 kills vs line 29.0 (6/10 over). KPR 0.67, HS 60%. Next: vs Natus Vincere, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 30.2 against a 29.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 24.81 vs line 29 → -4.19 (-14.4%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 30% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 21 real matches) · kill rate −7% KPR
- • Expected 41.3 rounds · 2-0 54.4% · OT 18.9%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.8
HS/Map
8.88
K/D
0.99
KPR
0.67
ADR
75.3
KAST
71.7%
HS%
60%
Multi-kill
15.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Anubis)13.5 · KPR 0.634 · 21.3r
Map 2 (Mirage)11.3 · KPR 0.562 · 20r
Required KPR to clear0.702
Base kills (Maps 1-2)24.75
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.23%
Final projected kills24.81
Natus Vincere gives up (51 series)-4.2% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 29. Model: 73.9% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps25.7%
~21 kills · 35r94.3%
Normal31%
~24 kills · 39r84.5%
Close maps24.4%
~27 kills · 44r65.5%
Overtime18.9%
~30 kills · 50r39.6%
Match context
Oct 26, 12:00 PM CTLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 36.5% · live
Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 21 real matches) · kill rate −7% KPR
Game scriptUnderdog — team 37% to win; fewer rounds won usually means fewer kills.
M1 Anubis
21.3r
+2% KPR here
M2 Mirage
20r
-10% KPR here
Total
41.3r
2-0 sweep54.4%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)43.3%
Overtime18.9%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)25.7%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 40 his-team maps + 28 opponent maps + 0 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Anubis / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 29 (Under) · avg 30.2 · hit 3/10 · tap a bar
29
Nearby lines
| 27 Under | 46.4% | below BE |
| 28 Under | 51.8% | below BE |
| 29 Under | 54.8% | OFFERED |
| 30 Under | 58.9% | |
| 31 Under | 61.8% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 29
Line movement
first 29→29no change
- First seen29Oct 25, 10:14 PM
Map stats
Anubis
10 maps
Kills
15.3
KPR
0.68
HS%
66%
K/D
1.04
Mirage
9 maps
Kills
12.1
KPR
0.58
HS%
58.7%
K/D
0.86
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
19
KPR
0.78
HS%
56.1%
K/D
1.2
Dust2
6 maps
Kills
13.8
KPR
0.62
HS%
55.4%
K/D
0.91
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.72
HS%
57.9%
K/D
1.12
Cache
4 maps
Kills
14.2
KPR
0.59
HS%
63.2%
K/D
0.8
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | Nemiga | 10 Anubis 13-3 | 16 Mirage 13-11 | 26 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-24 | Spirit | 11 Anubis 10-13 | 11 Ancient 13-3 | 22 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-18 | FURIA | 10 Dust2 6-13 | 25 Ancient 19-16 | 35 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-17 | Falcons | 13 Anubis 5-13 | 22 Dust2 16-14 | 35 | Split | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-16 | Legacy | 21 Nuke 16-13 | 13 Dust2 11-13 | 34 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-15 | PARIVISION | 19 Ancient 10-13 | 10 Anubis 13-4 | 29 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | FURIA | 17 Ancient 10-13 | 14 Mirage 9-13 | 31 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-06 | 9z | 18 Dust2 8-13 | 12 Mirage 9-13 | 30 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-05 | Aurora | 8 Mirage 4-13 | 19 Nuke 13-7 | 27 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | M80 | 15 Cache 16-14 | 18 Anubis 13-11 | 33 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-03 | FURIA | 11 Mirage 5-13 | 20 Cache 14-16 | 31 | L | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-12 | G2 | 9 Mirage 13-7 | 19 Anubis 13-16 | 28 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-10 | MIBR | 14 Mirage 13-9 | 22 Anubis 16-14 | 36 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-09 | Astralis | 25 Ancient 16-14 | 14 Anubis 13-8 | 39 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-08 | BIG | 15 Cache 13-8 | 22 Nuke 13-9 | 37 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-14 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 7 Nuke 3-13 | 16 Anubis 11-13 | 23 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-10 | FaZe | 7 Cache 2-13 | 17 Ancient 6-13 | 24 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-03 | Nemesis | 15 Mirage 10-13 | 12 Dust2 13-6 | 27 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-06-18 | Aurora | 7 Nuke 6-13 | 20 Anubis 9-13 | 27 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-06-15 | FUT | 10 Mirage 13-7 | 8 Dust2 13-7 | 18 | W | Under ✓ |
