KillsBetter playTake
Line
28
Pick
UNDER
Projection
21.83
Hit
63%
EV+
+9.1%
Edge
-6.2
L10
60%
HeadshotsPlayable
Line
16
Pick
UNDER
Projection
13.25
Hit
58.8%
EV+
+1.9%
Edge
-2.8
L10
50%
Rifler
TjP
Rooster vs Abyssal
TAKE · UNDER 28
▲ L5 27.2 · L20 24.9
Hit rates at 28 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
67%
12/18
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
Previous meeting · vs Abyssal
No meeting with Abyssal in his last 18 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
26.1
6/9 hit at 28
Online · this match
23.7
6/9 hit at 28
Avg kills on Maps 1-2.
Late checks & sources
- Veto confirmed — re-check map order
- Confirm TjP is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at —
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 44.0%
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Take
What to watch · Stays under with 27 kills or fewer: across ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (6.1%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
21.83
Raw edge
-6.2
Cons. hit
63%
EV+
+9.1%
Exp. rounds
40.8
Line
28
Verdict
Take
Same-line track record · Under 26-30
All players · Kills
46.9%571 picks
This player
0%2 picks
Warning: TjP is 0-2 with us at this line (±2). Being backtested before he's kept out of Top 3 and slips.
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 24.6 kills vs line 28.0 (4/10 over). Next: vs Abyssal, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 24.6 against a 28.0 line
Biggest risk: 36% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 36% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
- • Model 21.83 vs line 28 → -6.17 (-22.0%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 60% under this line
- • Expected 40.8 rounds · 2-0 58.5% · OT 6.1%
Performance (last 36 maps)
Kills/Map
12.44
HS/Map
7.56
K/D
0.88
ADR
68.7
KAST
68.8%
Multi-kill
16.3%
Kills projection
Match context
Oct 26, 10:00 PM CTOnline
Win chance source: Polymarket 44.0%
M1 Inferno
19.5r
M2 Mirage
21.3r
Total
40.8r
2-0 sweep58.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)10.9%
Overtime6.1%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)35.9%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 36 his-team maps + 0 opponent maps + 0 past-meeting maps.
Veto confirmed (HLTV): Inferno / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 28 (Under) · avg 24.6 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
28
Line movement
first 28→offno change
- Pulled28Oct 26, 10:02 PM
- Back on board28 → 28Oct 26, 10:01 PM
- Pulled28Oct 26, 10:00 PM
- First seen28Oct 26, 07:00 PM
Map stats
Inferno
9 maps
Kills
9.8
K/D
0.75
Dust2
9 maps
Kills
14
K/D
0.99
Nuke
7 maps
Kills
12
K/D
0.89
Anubis
5 maps
Kills
15
K/D
1.04
Ancient
4 maps
Kills
12.8
K/D
0.74
Mirage
2 maps
Kills
12
K/D
0.89
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 | HYPERSPIRIT | 24 Ancient 17-19 | 9 Mirage 7-13 | 33 | L | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-14 | fnatic | 11 Inferno 9-13 | 8 Ancient 4-13 | 19 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | Astralis | 9 Nuke 13-16 | 15 Mirage 9-13 | 24 | L | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-29 | FlyQuest | 10 Inferno 4-13 | 12 Dust2 9-13 | 22 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-28 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 20 Inferno 13-8 | 18 Dust2 13-9 | 38 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-27 | FlyQuest | 8 Inferno 2-13 | 4 Ancient 4-13 | 12 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-25 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 15 Ancient 13-4 | 14 Dust2 13-3 | 29 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-23 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 9 Nuke 13-7 | 7 Inferno 13-7 | 16 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-01 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 18 Dust2 13-8 | 12 Inferno 13-1 | 30 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-30 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 14 Nuke 13-5 | 9 Inferno 11-13 | 23 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 9 Inferno 13-8 | 17 Anubis 13-5 | 26 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-18 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 17 Dust2 13-8 | 8 Anubis 10-13 | 25 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-07-18 | FlyQuest | 10 Dust2 10-13 | 7 Nuke 1-13 | 17 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-18 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 11 Dust2 13-10 | 15 Anubis 13-7 | 26 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-07-17 | Rooster | 16 Nuke 13-0 | 19 Anubis 13-4 | 35 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-06-04 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 16 Anubis 10-13 | 2 Inferno 3-13 | 18 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-05-27 | SemperFi | 7 Dust2 9-13 | 10 Nuke 10-13 | 17 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-05-16 | Lynn Vision | 19 Dust2 13-9 | 19 Nuke 10-13 | 38 | Split | Over ✗ |
