KillsRisk
Line
28.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
28.79
Hit
47.2%
EV+
-11.7%
Edge
+0.3
L10
70%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
15.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
15.17
Hit
47.4%
EV+
-17.9%
Edge
-0.3
L10
80%
Rifler
soulfly
Eternal Fire vs Team Nemesis
RISK · OVER 28.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP28.5UD28.5
▼ L5 31.2 · L20 33.1
Hit rates at 28.5 (Over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
77%
13/17
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
Previous meeting · vs Team Nemesis
No meeting with Team Nemesis in his last 17 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
32
10/14 hit at 28.5
Online
38
3/3 hit at 28.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm soulfly is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at —
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 88.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 29+ kills: across ~38 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (59%) or blowout (36%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
28.79
Raw edge
+0.3
Cons. hit
47.2%
EV+
-11.7%
Exp. rounds
38.4
Line
28.5
Verdict
Risk
Same-line track record · Over 26.5-30.5
All players · Kills
51.7%666 picks
This player
25%4 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 30.8 kills vs line 28.5 (7/10 over). Next: vs Nemesis, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 30.8 against a 28.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 28.79 vs line 28.5 → +0.29 (1.0%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 70% over this line
- • Expected 38.4 rounds · 2-0 59% · OT 21.8%
Performance (last 34 maps)
Kills/Map
16.53
HS/Map
8.71
K/D
1.03
ADR
72.5
KAST
71.7%
Multi-kill
14.2%
Kills projection
Team Nemesis gives up (35 series)-12.2% vs norm
Match context
Oct 28, 8:30 AM CTLANStake Ranked Episode 5
Win chance source: Polymarket 81.5% · live
M1 Mirage
19.6r
M2 Cache
18.8r
Total
38.4r
2-0 sweep59%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)44.8%
Overtime21.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)36%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 34 his-team maps + 30 opponent maps + 0 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Cache
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 28.5 (Over) · avg 30.8 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
28.5
Line movement
first 28.5→28.5no change
- First seen28.5Oct 27, 08:04 PM
Map stats
Mirage
9 maps
Kills
13.8
K/D
0.88
Cache
8 maps
Kills
18
K/D
1.3
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
18
K/D
1.04
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
17.2
K/D
0.95
Inferno
3 maps
Kills
14
K/D
1.02
Ancient
3 maps
Kills
19
K/D
0.95
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-27 | MIBR | 13 Ancient 13-10 | 11 Mirage 10-13 | 24 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-23 | SINNERS | 10 Mirage 6-13 | 19 Cache 16-12 | 29 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-23 | JiJieHao | 26 Ancient 22-20 | 9 Inferno 7-13 | 35 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-22 | SINNERS | 13 Mirage 13-10 | 20 Cache 14-16 | 33 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-21 | BC.Game | 17 Mirage 6-13 | 18 Ancient 13-9 | 35 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-21 | BASEMENT BOYS | 11 Mirage 8-13 | 13 Cache 13-7 | 24 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-20 | INFINITE | 14 Cache 13-1 | 24 Dust2 22-20 | 38 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-03 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 11 Dust2 4-13 | 14 Inferno 11-13 | 25 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | JiJieHao | 21 Dust2 19-15 | 10 Mirage 11-13 | 31 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-03 | Sangal | 11 Dust2 13-5 | 23 Cache 13-11 | 34 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-02 | BASEMENT BOYS | 27 Mirage 12-16 | 26 Cache 13-7 | 53 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-27 | K27 | 18 Dust2 13-8 | 13 Mirage 13-8 | 31 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-26 | Nuclear TigeRES | 10 Anubis 7-13 | 26 Dust2 13-8 | 36 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | WBT | 20 Cache 13-6 | 27 Anubis 19-17 | 47 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-24 | Betclic | 9 Cache 4-13 | 13 Anubis 16-13 | 22 | Split | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-24 | ASTRAL | 19 Inferno 13-6 | 15 Dust2 13-10 | 34 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-24 | JiJieHao | 19 Anubis 10-13 | 12 Mirage 2-13 | 31 | L | Over ✓ | BO |
