KillsRisk
Line
28.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
29.3
Hit
45%
EV+
-22.0%
Edge
+0.8
L10
50%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
9.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
9.84
Hit
44.9%
EV+
-22.3%
Edge
+0.3
L10
50%
AWPer · IGL
aliStair
FlyQuest vs Staqued
RISK · OVER 28.5
≈ L5 28.8 · L20 28.6
Hit rates at 28.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
47%
9/19
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
Previous meeting · vs Staqued
No meeting with Staqued in his last 19 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
27.2
5/10 hit at 28.5
Online
30.2
4/9 hit at 28.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2.
Late checks & sources
- Veto confirmed — re-check map order
- Confirm aliStair is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at —
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 95.2%
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 29+ kills: across ~39 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (74.3%) or blowout (45.5%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
29.3
Raw edge
+0.8
Cons. hit
45%
EV+
-22.0%
Exp. rounds
39.2
Line
28.5
Verdict
Risk
Same-line track record · Over 26.5-30.5
All players · Kills
51.5%658 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 28.8 kills vs line 28.5 (5/10 over). Next: vs Staqued, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 28.8 against a 28.5 line
Biggest risk: 33% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 33% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 29.3 vs line 28.5 → +0.8 (2.8%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 50% over this line
- • Expected 39.2 rounds · 2-0 74.3% · OT 10.5%
Performance (last 38 maps)
Kills/Map
14.32
HS/Map
4.82
K/D
1.2
ADR
69.3
KAST
78.4%
Multi-kill
16.5%
Kills projection
Match context
Oct 26, 10:00 PM CTLANDFRAG Invitational 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 95.2%
M1 Ancient
19.4r
M2 Inferno
19.8r
Total
39.2r
2-0 sweep74.3%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)19.1%
Overtime10.5%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)45.5%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 38 his-team maps + 4 opponent maps + 0 past-meeting maps.
Veto confirmed (HLTV): Ancient / Inferno
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 28.5 (Over) · avg 28.8 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
28.5
Line movement
first 28.5→offno change
- Pulled27.5Oct 26, 10:02 PM
- Back on board27.5 → 27.5Oct 26, 10:01 PM
- Pulled27.5Oct 26, 10:00 PM
- Moved down28.5 → 27.5Oct 26, 07:12 PM
- First seen28.5Oct 26, 10:58 AM
Map stats
Dust2
11 maps
Kills
14.5
K/D
1.23
Anubis
9 maps
Kills
13.1
K/D
1.09
Inferno
9 maps
Kills
15.4
K/D
1.32
Ancient
4 maps
Kills
17
K/D
1.19
Cache
3 maps
Kills
13.3
K/D
1.25
Nuke
2 maps
Kills
9.5
K/D
0.86
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | NEXVOID | 8 Ancient 7-13 | 14 Dust2 13-6 | 22 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-17 | NEXVOID | 27 Ancient 14-16 | 10 Dust2 13-2 | 37 | Split | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-17 | Rooster | 9 Anubis 13-1 | 7 Inferno 13-6 | 16 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | Abyssal | 15 Cache 13-8 | 15 Inferno 13-9 | 30 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-16 | Off Chops | 13 Dust2 13-10 | 26 Inferno 19-16 | 39 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-11 | Abyssal | 12 Dust2 13-6 | 14 Inferno 13-8 | 26 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-11 | Ground Zero | 9 Anubis 13-10 | 21 Inferno 13-10 | 30 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Abyssal | 11 Dust2 13-4 | 14 Inferno 13-8 | 25 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-29 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 15 Inferno 13-4 | 21 Dust2 13-9 | 36 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-27 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 14 Inferno 13-2 | 13 Ancient 13-4 | 27 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-25 | Rooster | 13 Anubis 13-8 | 12 Nuke 13-3 | 25 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-23 | LFO 8 | 16 Cache 13-3 | 12 Dust2 13-4 | 28 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-03 | Rare Atom | 30 Dust2 19-17 | 14 Anubis 10-13 | 44 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-03 | DEPO | 16 Anubis 13-6 | 20 Ancient 13-9 | 36 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-03 | Kaleido | 9 Cache 13-5 | 10 Anubis 13-4 | 19 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-02 | Rare Atom | 10 Dust2 6-13 | 20 Anubis 16-14 | 30 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-02 | NEXVOID | 13 Inferno 13-7 | 14 Anubis 13-11 | 27 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-07-18 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 18 Dust2 13-8 | 13 Anubis 10-13 | 31 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-07-18 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 9 Dust2 10-13 | 7 Nuke 1-13 | 16 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
