KillsBetter playTake
Line
31.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
37.14
Hit
67.4%
EV+
+16.8%
Edge
+5.6
L10
70%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
10.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
11.37
Hit
58.8%
EV+
+1.8%
Edge
+0.9
L10
50%
AWPer
m1N1
JiJieHao vs Eternal Fire
TAKE · OVER 31.5
▲ L5 38.8 · L20 32.9
Hit rates at 31.5 (Over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
63%
10/16
H2H
100%
2/2
Volatility
Medium
±8.3
Previous meeting · vs Eternal Fire
2/2 hit · avg 40 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-03 · Journey Autumn 2026
Dust2 15-19 · Mirage 13-11 · Split
39
Over 31.5 ✓
2026-09-24 · Stake Pulse Beat II
Anubis 13-10 · Mirage 13-2 · W
41
Over 31.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
32.9
10/16 hit at 31.5
Online
—
no series
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm m1N1 is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 34.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 44.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Take
What to watch · Needs 32+ kills: 0.708 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (52.9%) or blowout (28.7%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
37.14
Raw edge
+5.6
Cons. hit
67.4%
EV+
+16.8%
Rating
9.5/10
Exp. rounds
44.5
Line
31.5
Verdict
Take
Plain model
67.4%
0 →
Learned
67.4%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 29.5-33.5
All players · Kills
54.2%271 picks
This player
100%3 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 74.2% → −8% haircut · cap 74% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
Clears edge, form, EV+, volatility and every sharp check
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 16 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 70.0% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 62.5% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
Game script fits · 44.5 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 29% (under 40%) · team 45% to win (20%+)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 35.8 kills vs line 31.5 (7/10 over). KPR 0.78, HS 32%. Next: vs Eternal Fire, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 35.8 against a 31.5 line
Biggest risk: 28% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 28% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
TAKE OVER
Value
VALUE
- • Model 37.14 vs line 31.5 → +5.64 (17.9%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 70% over this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → ±0.0 rounds/map (learned from 6 real matches)
- • Expected 44.5 rounds · 2-0 52.9% · OT 12.2%
Performance (last 32 maps)
Kills/Map
16.47
HS/Map
5.28
K/D
1.21
KPR
0.78
ADR
74.8
KAST
72.7%
HS%
32.1%
Multi-kill
22.3%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)15.7 · KPR 0.753 · 21r
Map 2 (Dust2)18.6 · KPR 0.795 · 23.5r
Required KPR to clear0.708
Base kills (Maps 1-2)34.5
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.68%
Final projected kills34.26
Eternal Fire gives up (87 series)-2.1% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 31.5. Model: 74.2% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps28.7%
~31 kills · 37r46.4%
Normal49.3%
~38 kills · 46r82.3%
Close maps9.8%
~40 kills · 48r87.2%
Overtime12.2%
~45 kills · 54r96.3%
Match context
Oct 23, 01:00 PMLANDraculaN Season 7
Win chance source: Polymarket 44.5%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → ±0.0 rounds/map (learned from 6 real matches)
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 45% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Mirage
21r
-4% KPR here
M2 Dust2
23.5r
+2% KPR here
Total
44.5r
2-0 sweep52.9%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22%
Overtime12.2%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)28.7%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 31.5 (Over) · avg 35.8 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
31.5
Nearby lines
| 29.5 Over | 69.9% | |
| 30.5 Over | 68.8% | |
| 31.5 Over | 67.4% | OFFERED |
| 32.5 Over | 65.6% | |
| 33.5 Over | 63.2% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 34.5
Line movement
first 31.5→offno change
- Pulled33.5Oct 23, 01:42 PM
- Back on board33.5 → 33.5Oct 23, 01:14 PM
- Pulled33.5Oct 23, 01:02 PM
- Back on board32.5 → 33.5Oct 23, 12:50 PM
- Pulled32.5Oct 23, 12:46 PM
- Back on board31.5 → 32.5Oct 23, 05:50 AM
- Pulled31.5Oct 23, 05:50 AM
- Back on board31.5 → 31.5Oct 23, 05:49 AM
- Pulled31.5Oct 23, 05:49 AM
- First seen31.5Oct 23, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Mirage
9 maps
Kills
15.4
KPR
0.74
HS%
37.4%
K/D
1.25
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
19.4
KPR
0.8
HS%
30.3%
K/D
1.34
Cache
5 maps
Kills
13.8
KPR
0.71
HS%
29%
K/D
1.17
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
15.8
KPR
0.73
HS%
31.7%
K/D
1.07
Ancient
3 maps
Kills
15.3
KPR
0.62
HS%
26.1%
K/D
0.98
Inferno
3 maps
Kills
18.3
KPR
0.87
HS%
32.7%
K/D
1.28
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | BC.Game | 23 Dust2 13-5 | 18 Ancient 16-14 | 41 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-22 | Nexus | 22 Dust2 13-11 | 22 Mirage 16-12 | 44 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-21 | SINNERS | 27 Dust2 19-22 | 14 Inferno 10-13 | 41 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-21 | FaZe | 14 Mirage 6-13 | 23 Dust2 13-9 | 37 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-20 | Iberian Soul | 17 Inferno 3-13 | 14 Mirage 13-5 | 31 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-13 | Liquid | 17 Mirage 11-13 | 13 Cache 2-13 | 30 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-13 | BBL | 24 Inferno 11-13 | 20 Mirage 13-7 | 44 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-13 | 100 Thieves | 7 Cache 7-13 | 8 Dust2 3-13 | 15 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | Eternal Fire | 25 Dust2 15-19 | 14 Mirage 13-11 | 39 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-03 | 100 Thieves | 19 Dust2 10-13 | 17 Cache 13-5 | 36 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-25 | Sangal | 15 Cache 9-13 | 18 Ancient 10-13 | 33 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-24 | Betclic | 17 Anubis 13-10 | 17 Anubis 13-10 | 34 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-24 | Eternal Fire | 20 Anubis 13-10 | 21 Mirage 13-2 | 41 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-15 | Aurora | 5 Mirage 6-13 | 9 Anubis 4-13 | 14 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-13 | GamerLegion | 8 Dust2 3-13 | 10 Ancient 8-13 | 18 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-09 | HOTU | 12 Mirage 7-13 | 17 Cache 13-9 | 29 | Split | Under ✗ |
