KillsRisk
Line
28.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
28.26
Hit
44.9%
EV+
-16.1%
Edge
-0.2
L10
40%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
14.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
14.72
Hit
45.1%
EV+
-15.6%
Edge
+0.2
L10
50%
Rifler
tomaszin
Made in Brazil vs Inner Circle Esports
RISK · UNDER 28.5
BEST UNDER · PP 29.5PP29.5UD28.5
▼ L5 26.4 · L20 27.6LAN UNDER · 52% hit
Hit rates at 28.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
60%
12/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
Previous meeting · vs Inner Circle Esports
No meeting with Inner Circle Esports in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
27.5
10/16 hit at 28.5
Online
28.3
2/4 hit at 28.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm tomaszin is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at —
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 60.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 28 kills or fewer: across ~44 rounds. Main danger: overtime (14.4%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
28.26
Raw edge
-0.2
Cons. hit
44.9%
EV+
-16.1%
Exp. rounds
44
Line
28.5
Verdict
Risk
Same-line track record · Under 26.5-30.5
All players · Kills
48.3%666 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 29.0 kills vs line 30.5 (4/10 over). Next: vs Inner Circle, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 29.0 against a 30.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 28.26 vs line 28.5 → -0.24 (-0.8%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 40% under this line
- • Expected 44 rounds · 2-0 55.7% · OT 14.4%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.82
HS/Map
7.2
K/D
0.94
ADR
75.4
KAST
77.1%
Multi-kill
15.1%
Kills projection
Inner Circle Esports gives up (83 series)-2.8% vs norm
Match context
Oct 28, 1:30 PM CTLANStake Ranked Episode 5
Win chance source: Polymarket 60.5%
M1 Ancient
22.8r
M2 Mirage
21.3r
Total
44r
2-0 sweep55.7%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime14.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)20.1%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 40 his-team maps + 20 opponent maps + 0 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 28.5 (Under) · avg 29.0 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
28.5
Line movement
first 30.5→28.5-2
- Moved down29.5 → 28.5Oct 27, 08:37 PM
- Moved down30.5 → 29.5Oct 27, 08:32 PM
- First seen30.5Oct 27, 08:04 PM
Map stats
Ancient
9 maps
Kills
15.6
K/D
1.05
Mirage
9 maps
Kills
13
K/D
0.89
Cache
7 maps
Kills
13.7
K/D
0.83
Nuke
7 maps
Kills
13
K/D
0.91
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
14.5
K/D
1.21
Anubis
2 maps
Kills
11
K/D
0.63
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-27 | Eternal Fire | 19 Ancient 10-13 | 10 Mirage 13-10 | 29 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-17 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 10 Mirage 2-13 | 13 Cache 19-17 | 23 | Split | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-17 | 100 Thieves | 17 Nuke 13-8 | 13 Mirage 13-10 | 30 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-16 | Astralis | 16 Inferno 8-13 | 12 Cache 16-14 | 28 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-15 | BC.Game | 12 Mirage 13-5 | 10 Ancient 7-13 | 22 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | Envy | 8 Anubis 13-7 | 20 Ancient 13-5 | 28 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | BC.Game | 22 Cache 12-16 | 10 Ancient 13-10 | 32 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-19 | FURIA | 10 Mirage 8-13 | 21 Nuke 11-13 | 31 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-19 | NRG | 15 Cache 13-7 | 16 Inferno 13-2 | 31 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-18 | magic | 17 Ancient 13-8 | 19 Mirage 11-13 | 36 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-17 | FURIA | 17 Inferno 13-11 | 9 Nuke 6-13 | 26 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-12 | Legacy | 11 Nuke 10-13 | 16 Ancient 13-11 | 27 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-11 | Alliance | 11 Inferno 13-4 | 13 Cache 13-9 | 24 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | BetBoom | 8 Mirage 9-13 | 14 Anubis 14-16 | 22 | L | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-09 | 9z | 13 Mirage 13-6 | 11 Nuke 13-7 | 24 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-08 | The MongolZ | 5 Ancient 5-13 | 22 Mirage 13-10 | 27 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-03 | K27 | 10 Cache 6-13 | 10 Nuke 6-13 | 20 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-03 | EYEBALLERS | 20 Ancient 16-14 | 12 Inferno 13-8 | 32 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-02 | 3DMAX | 11 Cache 13-8 | 12 Nuke 13-6 | 23 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-02 | Eternal Fire | 23 Ancient 16-19 | 15 Inferno 13-8 | 38 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
