KillsRisk
Line
23.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
24.19
Hit
47%
EV+
-12.1%
Edge
+0.7
L10
60%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
14.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
14.24
Hit
53.8%
EV+
+0.7%
Edge
-0.3
L10
40%
Rifler
Techno4k
The Mongolz vs MOUZ
RISK · UNDER 14.5
UD14.5
▲ L5 16.4 · L20 14.7Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1
Hit rates at 14.5 (Under)
L5
20%
1/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
50%
10/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±3.43
Previous meeting · vs MOUZ
No meeting with MOUZ in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
14.8
9/18 hit at 14.5
Online
13
1/2 hit at 14.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Techno4K is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 14.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 24.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 14 HS or fewer (under ~24 kills at 61.7% HS): below 0.577 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (10%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
14.24
Raw edge
-0.3
Cons. hit
53.8%
EV+
+0.7%
Rating
2.2/10
Exp. rounds
40.7
Line
14.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
53.8%
0 →
Learned
53.8%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 12.5-16.5
All players · Headshots
40.5%341 picks
This player
25%4 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 55.6% → −8% haircut · cap 74% · per-leg 1.871x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.3 below ±2.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 40.0% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 50.0% at this line · gate off (replay: didn't help)
Game script fits · OT 10% (under 22%) · 40.7 exp. rounds (under 47) · team 25% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 16.2 headshots vs line 14.5 (6/10 over). KPR 0.59, HS 62%. Next: vs MOUZ, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 16.2 against a 14.5 line
Biggest risk: 26% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 26% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
- • Model 14.24 vs line 14.5 → -0.26 (-1.8%)
- • Form L5 20% · L10 40% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 15 real matches) · kill rate −6% KPR
- • Expected 40.7 rounds · 2-0 54.6% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
11.88
HS/Map
7.33
K/D
0.85
KPR
0.59
ADR
67.5
KAST
71%
HS%
61.7%
Multi-kill
13.8%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)6.9 · KPR 0.568 · 19.8r
Map 2 (Mirage)6.9 · KPR 0.543 · 20.9r
Required KPR to clear0.577
Base kills (Maps 1-2)22.6
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.24%
Final projected kills22.32
× realistic HS% (61.7%)14.24
MOUZ gives up (78 series)-5.3% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 14.5. Model: 55.6% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps33%
~12 HS · 34r77.1%
Normal48.7%
~15 HS · 43r47.1%
Close maps8.3%
~15 HS · 44r44.5%
Overtime10%
~17 HS · 50r26.1%
Match context
Oct 26, 08:00 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 24.5% · live
Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 15 real matches) · kill rate −6% KPR
Game scriptUnderdog — team 25% to win; fewer rounds won usually means fewer kills.
M1 Inferno
19.8r
+2% KPR here
M2 Mirage
20.9r
-2% KPR here
Total
40.7r
2-0 sweep54.6%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)18.3%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)33%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way. Sweep from win chance + his team's 2-0 rate + opponent's 2-0 rate + market. Rounds & blowout from 40 his-team maps + 30 opponent maps + 0 past-meeting maps.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Inferno / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 14.5 (Under) · avg 16.2 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
14.5
Nearby lines
| 12.5 Under | 39.4% | below BE |
| 13.5 Under | 46.7% | below BE |
| 14.5 Under | 53.8% | OFFERED |
| 15.5 Under | 59.9% | |
| 16.5 Under | 64.3% |
Break-even per leg: 53.5%
Becomes a PASS at: 14.5
Line movement
first 14.5→14.5no change
- First seen14.5Oct 26, 03:14 AM
Map stats
Inferno
12 maps
Kills
12.3
KPR
0.61
HS%
57.4%
K/D
0.89
Mirage
7 maps
Kills
12.4
KPR
0.57
HS%
66.7%
K/D
0.86
Nuke
6 maps
Kills
10.2
KPR
0.48
HS%
62.3%
K/D
0.74
Ancient
5 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.67
HS%
61.8%
K/D
1
Dust2
4 maps
Kills
12.5
KPR
0.56
HS%
68%
K/D
0.98
Cache
4 maps
Kills
9
KPR
0.48
HS%
63.9%
K/D
0.62
Overpass
2 maps
Kills
8.5
KPR
0.46
HS%
47.1%
K/D
0.68
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | Vitality | 7 Inferno 6-13 | 6 Cache 3-13 | 13 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-24 | Aurora | 9 Inferno 12-16 | 8 Nuke 13-2 | 17 | Split | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-22 | PARIVISION | 9 Ancient 13-6 | 9 Mirage 13-11 | 18 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-22 | BIG | 10 Cache 4-13 | 5 Inferno 13-3 | 15 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-21 | PRIVATE | 10 Mirage 13-6 | 9 Ancient 13-7 | 19 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-21 | magic | 11 Inferno 13-9 | 10 Ancient 13-10 | 21 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-20 | BIG | 4 Cache 8-13 | 6 Mirage 4-13 | 10 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-19 | Alliance | 10 Inferno 13-8 | 11 Dust2 13-11 | 21 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-20 | Falcons | 4 Inferno 3-13 | 10 Dust2 9-13 | 14 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-16 | paiN | 8 Nuke 13-10 | 6 Inferno 13-4 | 14 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-15 | Natus Vincere | 6 Inferno 5-13 | 4 Ancient 13-9 | 10 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-31 | FaZe | 7 Nuke 12-16 | 5 Mirage 13-7 | 12 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-07-26 | Wildcard | 6 Dust2 13-7 | 13 Inferno 13-9 | 19 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-07-24 | HEROIC | 4 Nuke 5-13 | 3 Cache 13-8 | 7 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-15 | 9z | 2 Inferno 8-13 | 5 Overpass 8-13 | 7 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-06-14 | Monte | 2 Nuke 9-13 | 5 Inferno 13-7 | 7 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-06-13 | Natus Vincere | 9 Nuke 13-8 | 15 Ancient 13-16 | 24 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-06-12 | B8 | 10 Mirage 16-14 | 3 Overpass 13-3 | 13 | W | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-06-11 | BetBoom | 7 Dust2 13-11 | 10 Mirage 6-13 | 17 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-05-22 | Legacy | 7 Inferno 11-13 | 8 Mirage 13-10 | 15 | Split | Over ✗ |
