KillsLean
Line
26
Pick
OVER
Projection
28.9
Hit
58.1%
EV+
+0.6%
Edge
+2.9
L10
80%
HeadshotsLean
Line
14.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
16.21
Hit
57.9%
EV+
+0.2%
Edge
+1.7
L10
80%
Rifler · IGL
robo
Nemiga vs Legacy
LEAN · OVER 26
BEST OVER · PP 26PP26UD26.5
▲ L5 33.2 · L20 30.6
Hit rates at 26 (Over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
80%
8/10
L20
60%
12/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±7.83
Previous meeting · vs Legacy
No meeting with Legacy in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
39
4/4 hit at 26
Online
28.4
8/16 hit at 26
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm robo is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 26
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 34.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Needs 27+ kills: 0.609 KPR over ~43 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (57.1%) or blowout (26.9%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
28.9
Raw edge
+2.9
Cons. hit
58.1%
EV+
+0.6%
Rating
4.6/10
Exp. rounds
42.7
Line
26
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
58.1%
0 →
Learned
58.1%
what past results change
learning 0x
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 24-28
All players · Kills
57.3%314 picks
This player
33.3%3 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 64.4% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +2.9 below ±3.0 minimum
- Blowout loss risk — team only 35% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 80.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 60.0% at this line
Game script fits · 42.7 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 27% (under 40%) · team 35% to win (20%+)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 8/10 at this line · projection 5.2 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 34.1 kills vs line 26.0 (8/10 over). KPR 0.74, HS 56%. Next: vs Legacy, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 34.1 against a 26.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
- • Model 28.9 vs line 26 → +2.9 (11.2%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 80% over this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 28 real matches) · kill rate −4% KPR
- • Expected 42.7 rounds · 2-0 57.1% · OT 16.7%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.28
HS/Map
8.57
K/D
1.04
KPR
0.74
ADR
82
KAST
77.3%
HS%
56.1%
Multi-kill
19.2%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Cache)14.2 · KPR 0.736 · 19.2r
Map 2 (Mirage)14.7 · KPR 0.626 · 23.5r
Required KPR to clear0.609
Base kills (Maps 1-2)28.85
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.15%
Final projected kills28.9
Legacy gives up (79 series)-4.3% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 26. Model: 64.4% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps26.9%
~24 kills · 36r34.4%
Normal50.6%
~29 kills · 43r62.7%
Close maps5.8%
~31 kills · 46r71.8%
Overtime16.7%
~35 kills · 52r86.8%
Match context
Oct 24, 7:55 AM CTLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 34.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 28 real matches) · kill rate −4% KPR
⚠ Blowout riskBlowout loss risk — team only 35% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
M1 Cache
19.2r
+2% KPR here
M2 Mirage
23.5r
-13% KPR here
Total
42.7r
2-0 sweep57.1%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime16.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)26.9%
2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Cache / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 26 (Over) · avg 34.1 · hit 8/10 · tap a bar
26
Nearby lines
| 24 Over | 61.8% | |
| 25 Over | 60.1% | |
| 26 Over | 58.1% | OFFERED |
| 27 Over | 55.6% | below BE |
| 28 Over | 52.8% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 26
Line movement
first 26→26no change
- Back on board26 → 26Oct 24, 04:08 PM
- Pulled26Oct 24, 07:46 AM
- Back on board26 → 26Oct 24, 07:45 AM
- Pulled26Oct 24, 07:45 AM
- First seen26Oct 23, 07:00 PM
Map stats
Cache
9 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.77
HS%
50.4%
K/D
1.23
Mirage
9 maps
Kills
15.8
KPR
0.62
HS%
57.7%
K/D
0.88
Ancient
8 maps
Kills
15.6
KPR
0.77
HS%
65.6%
K/D
1.12
Dust2
6 maps
Kills
15.8
KPR
0.69
HS%
53.7%
K/D
1.07
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
12.8
KPR
0.61
HS%
47.1%
K/D
0.84
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.73
HS%
57.4%
K/D
1.17
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | Iberian Soul | 14 Cache 7-13 | 21 Nuke 16-13 | 35 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-08 | Lavked | 8 Anubis 13-5 | 10 Dust2 13-4 | 18 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | Astralis | 15 Mirage 6-13 | 16 Ancient 13-10 | 31 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-03 | Luminosity | 18 Cache 13-11 | 27 Dust2 16-13 | 45 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-02 | Alliance | 16 Cache 13-6 | 21 Ancient 13-8 | 37 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-01 | FaZe | 20 Mirage 16-12 | 23 Ancient 13-11 | 43 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-28 | BET-M | 19 Anubis 13-10 | 15 Nuke 13-6 | 34 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-28 | FOKUS | 12 Dust2 13-6 | 28 Mirage 22-20 | 40 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-27 | Color | 15 Cache 13-5 | 19 Dust2 9-13 | 34 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | Black Phoenix | 14 Cache 13-9 | 10 Dust2 9-13 | 24 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | INOX Division | 10 Nuke 13-2 | 15 Ancient 13-10 | 25 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-24 | Just Players | 7 Mirage 13-9 | 13 Cache 13-6 | 20 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-14 | Metizport | 21 Mirage 16-14 | 15 Nuke 13-8 | 36 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-13 | SINNERS | 12 Cache 13-10 | 11 Mirage 13-10 | 23 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-12 | Just Players | 11 Ancient 13-6 | 19 Cache 13-3 | 30 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | K27 | 15 Anubis 10-13 | 13 Mirage 13-9 | 28 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-09 | HOTU | 6 Ancient 3-13 | 16 Cache 13-4 | 22 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-08 | Color | 17 Dust2 16-13 | 9 Anubis 13-6 | 26 | W | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-06 | FOKUS | 19 Mirage 16-14 | 15 Ancient 13-3 | 34 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-05 | Nemesis | 8 Mirage 13-1 | 18 Ancient 13-7 | 26 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
