CS2 LAB
V1.0
KillsLean
Line
23.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
28.13
Hit
60%
EV+
+3.9%
Edge
+4.6
L10
60%
HeadshotsLean
Line
13.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
16.23
Hit
59.8%
EV+
+3.6%
Edge
+2.7
L10
60%
nin9
Rifler
nin9
The MongolZ vs Aurora
60%HIT CHANCE
LEAN · OVER 23.5
BEST OVER · PP 23.5PP23.5UD24.5
≈ L5 27.4 · L20 27.8
Hit rates at 23.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
65%
13/20
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
High
±11.04
Previous meeting · vs Aurora
1/1 hit · avg 33 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-24 · PGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Inferno 12-16 · Nuke 13-2 · Split
33
Over 23.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN
27.1
4/7 hit at 23.5
Online · this match
28.2
9/13 hit at 23.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
  • Map veto (currently estimated)
  • Confirm nin9 is in the starting five
  • Re-check line: PASS at 25
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Needs 24+ kills: 0.55 KPR over ~43 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (51.5%) or blowout (22.2%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
28.13
Raw edge
+4.6
Cons. hit
60%
EV+
+3.9%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
42.7
Line
23.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
60%
0 →
Learned
60%
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Over 21.5-25.5
All players · Kills
57.6%158 picks
This player
50%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 66.3% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
  • High form volatility
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 65.0% at this line
Game script fits · 42.7 exp. rounds (need 38+) · blowout 22% (under 40%)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 6/10 at this line · projection 0.9 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk

Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 29.0 kills vs line 25.5 (6/10 over). KPR 0.68, HS 58%. Next: vs Aurora, LAN/Online unknown.

Strongest: L10 average 29.0 against a 25.5 line

Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency

  • Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
SMALL EDGE ONLY
Value
THIN
  • • Model 28.13 vs line 23.5 → +4.63 (19.7%)
  • • Form L5 60% · L10 60% over this line
  • • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
  • • Expected 42.7 rounds · 2-0 51.5% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.9
HS/Map
8.03
K/D
0.98
KPR
0.68
ADR
77.2
KAST
72%
HS%
57.7%
Multi-kill
18.8%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)12.9 · KPR 0.615 · 21.1r
Map 2 (Dust2)15.2 · KPR 0.709 · 21.6r
Required KPR to clear0.55
Base kills (Maps 1-2)28.29
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.55%
Final projected kills28.13
Aurora gives up (91 series)-1.7% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 23.5. Model: 66.3% before the safety haircut.
6789101214161820222426283032343638404244464850525457line 23.5
Lopsided maps22.2%
~24 kills · 36r45.7%
Normal47%
~28 kills · 43r64.1%
Close maps23%
~30 kills · 46r70.3%
Overtime7.8%
~34 kills · 52r81.4%
Match context
Oct 24, 2:00 AM CTOnline
HLTV #16VRS #20HLTV #5VRS #5
The MongolZ Aurora
Win chance source: —
Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
M1 Inferno
21.1r
-10% KPR here
M2 Dust2
21.6r
+4% KPR here
Total
42.7r
2-0 sweep51.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)22.2%

2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.

Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Inferno / Dust2

Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 23.5 (Over) · avg 29.0 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
23.5
Nearby lines
21.5 Over63.3%
22.5 Over62.4%
23.5 Over60%OFFERED
24.5 Over58.5%
25.5 Over56.8%below BE
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 25
Line movement
first 25.5→23.5-2
  1. Back on board25.5 → 23.5
    Oct 24, 04:06 PM
  2. Pulled25.5
    Oct 24, 02:00 AM
  3. First seen25.5
    Oct 23, 07:00 PM
Map stats
Inferno
10 maps
Kills
12.5
KPR
0.6
HS%
55.2%
K/D
0.89
Dust2
10 maps
Kills
15.5
KPR
0.72
HS%
64.5%
K/D
1.05
Ancient
8 maps
Kills
14.4
KPR
0.69
HS%
57.4%
K/D
1.07
Mirage
5 maps
Kills
11.8
KPR
0.62
HS%
50.8%
K/D
0.92
Cache
4 maps
Kills
10.2
KPR
0.53
HS%
53.7%
K/D
0.79
Nuke
3 maps
Kills
20.3
KPR
0.77
HS%
55.7%
K/D
1.13
Recent Maps 1-2 results
DateOppMap 1Map 2TotalTeamPropFlags
2026-10-24Aurora18 Inferno 12-1615 Nuke 13-233SplitOver ✓OTBO
2026-10-22PARIVISION15 Ancient 13-622 Mirage 13-1137WOver ✓
2026-10-22BIG8 Cache 4-1310 Inferno 13-318SplitUnder ✗BO
2026-10-21PRIVATE12 Mirage 13-614 Ancient 13-726WOver ✓
2026-10-21magic12 Inferno 13-911 Ancient 13-1023WUnder ✗
2026-10-20BIG9 Cache 8-138 Mirage 4-1317LUnder ✗BO
2026-10-19Alliance19 Inferno 13-817 Dust2 13-1136WOver ✓
2026-09-28NEXVOID29 Nuke 20-2223 Ancient 11-1352LOver ✓OT
2026-09-27The Huns9 Ancient 13-125 Dust2 13-1034WOver ✓BO
2026-09-26The Huns5 Dust2 3-139 Mirage 13-814SplitUnder ✗BO
2026-09-25Lynn Vision17 Nuke 9-1318 Inferno 11-1335LOver ✓
2026-09-23XDM9 Inferno 7-1320 Ancient 13-1129SplitOver ✓
2026-09-22The KnockoutX14 Dust2 13-911 Ancient 9-1325SplitOver ✓
2026-09-02The Huns11 Inferno 7-1322 Dust2 13-933SplitOver ✓
2026-09-02Kaleido10 Inferno 5-1316 Dust2 7-1326LOver ✓BO
2026-09-02The Huns6 Inferno 6-138 Mirage 1-1314LUnder ✗BO
2026-09-01The Huns11 Dust2 7-1312 Inferno 13-923SplitUnder ✗
2026-08-31The Huns9 Cache 13-713 Dust2 13-222WUnder ✗BO
2026-08-29The Huns15 Dust2 13-1112 Ancient 7-1327SplitOver ✓
2026-08-28The Huns15 Cache 13-617 Dust2 14-1632SplitOver ✓OT
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