CS2 LAB
V1.0
KillsRisk
Line
30.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
28.75
Hit
46%
EV+
-20.3%
Edge
-1.8
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
9.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
8.65
Hit
55.1%
EV+
-4.6%
Edge
-0.8
L10
70%
YumsaN
AWPer
YumsaN
FORZE Reload vs Nuclear TigeRES
46%HIT CHANCE
RISK · UNDER 30.5
▲ L5 35.4 · L20 30.6Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +2
Hit rates at 30.5 (Under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
60%
12/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
High
±9.32
Previous meeting · vs Nuclear TigeRES
No meeting with Nuclear TigeRES in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
30.6
12/20 hit at 30.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
  • Map veto (currently estimated)
  • Confirm YumsaN is in the starting five
  • Re-check line: PASS at 30.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 36.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 30 kills or fewer: below 0.794 KPR over ~38 rounds. Main danger: overtime (5.6%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
28.75
Raw edge
-1.8
Cons. hit
46%
EV+
-20.3%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
38.4
Line
30.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
46%
0 →
Learned
46%
learning 0x
Same-line track record · Under 28.5-32.5
All players · Kills
44.9%450 picks
This player
100%3 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 57.5% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
  • Edge -1.8 below ±3.0 minimum
  • Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
  • EV+ not positive at current payout
  • High form volatility
Sharp checks · 5/5 active
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60%off · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55%off · L20 60.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT 6% (under 22%) · 38.4 exp. rounds (under 47) · team 37% to win (not a 55-64% favourite)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
L10 form (4/10 rule) · L10 5/10 at this line · projection 4.0 from his L10 avg
Projection = model only (the replay showed the last-5 blend didn't help)
Evidence & risk

Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 32.7 kills vs line 30.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.80, HS 30%. Next: vs Nuclear TigeRES, Online.

Strongest: L10 average 32.7 against a 30.5 line

Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency

  • Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
  • • Model 28.75 vs line 30.5 → -1.75 (-5.7%)
  • • Form L5 40% · L10 50% under this line
  • • Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 28 real matches) · kill rate −4% KPR
  • • Expected 38.4 rounds · 2-0 60.3% · OT 5.6%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.28
HS/Map
4.6
K/D
1.33
KPR
0.8
ADR
84
KAST
79.6%
HS%
30.1%
Multi-kill
21.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)15.2 · KPR 0.801 · 19.2r
Map 2 (Cache)13.5 · KPR 0.711 · 19.2r
Required KPR to clear0.794
Base kills (Maps 1-2)29.03
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.99%
Final projected kills28.75
Nuclear TigeRES gives up (38 series)+0.2% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 30.5. Model: 57.5% before the safety haircut.
910121416182022242628303234363840424446485053line 30.5
Lopsided maps24.1%
~24 kills · 32r79.5%
Normal53.4%
~30 kills · 39r57.6%
Close maps16.9%
~31 kills · 41r52.1%
Overtime5.6%
~35 kills · 47r33.5%
Match context
Oct 24, 9:00 AM CTOnlineNODWIN Clutch Series 13
HLTV #80VRS #83HLTV #50VRS #47
FORZE Reload 37%63% Nuclear TigeRES
Win chance source: Polymarket 36.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → −1.0 rounds/map (learned from 28 real matches) · kill rate −4% KPR
Game scriptUnderdog — team 37% to win; fewer rounds won usually means fewer kills.
M1 Dust2
19.2r
+4% KPR here
M2 Cache
19.2r
-7% KPR here
Total
38.4r
2-0 sweep60.3%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime5.6%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.1%

2-0 sweep is info only — Maps 1-2 are played either way.

Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Cache

Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 30.5 (Under) · avg 32.7 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
30.5
Nearby lines
28.5 Under36.9%below BE
29.5 Under41.5%below BE
30.5 Under46%OFFERED
31.5 Under48.5%below BE
32.5 Under52.9%below BE
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 30.5
Line movement
first 30.5→offno change
  1. Pulled30.5
    Oct 24, 09:00 AM
  2. First seen30.5
    Oct 23, 07:00 PM
Map stats
Dust2
11 maps
Kills
16.6
KPR
0.84
HS%
32.8%
K/D
1.66
Cache
8 maps
Kills
14.1
KPR
0.72
HS%
29.2%
K/D
1.33
Ancient
7 maps
Kills
14.1
KPR
0.7
HS%
26.3%
K/D
1.22
Mirage
7 maps
Kills
14.3
KPR
0.63
HS%
33%
K/D
1.05
Anubis
5 maps
Kills
14.8
KPR
0.67
HS%
23%
K/D
1.17
Nuke
2 maps
Kills
21
KPR
0.89
HS%
35.7%
K/D
1.56
Recent Maps 1-2 results
DateOppMap 1Map 2TotalTeamPropFlags
2026-10-24Acend9 Ancient 6-1315 Cache 4-1324LUnder ✓BO
2026-10-23Sökerorg23 Ancient 13-718 Dust2 13-741WOver ✗
2026-10-22Rune Eaters25 Dust2 13-1013 Cache 13-538WOver ✗BO
2026-10-22Just Players21 Mirage 19-168 Cache 13-529WUnder ✓OTBO
2026-10-20ex-Zero Tenacity23 Dust2 10-1322 Cache 13-1145SplitOver ✗
2026-10-19GenOne13 Cache 13-919 Anubis 16-1332WOver ✗OT
2026-10-18BAKS18 Dust2 13-612 Cache 13-030WUnder ✓BO
2026-10-17Black Phoenix11 Anubis 6-134 Dust2 0-1315LUnder ✓BO
2026-10-16Lavked21 Ancient 13-625 Dust2 13-546WOver ✗BO
2026-10-14Sökerorg14 Mirage 13-1013 Dust2 13-627WUnder ✓
2026-10-14BET-M15 Dust2 13-1113 Anubis 13-1028WUnder ✓
2026-10-04Spirit Academy9 Mirage 13-811 Ancient 8-1320SplitUnder ✓
2026-10-03mellren22 Nuke 13-1018 Mirage 13-440WOver ✗BO
2026-10-01Fire Flux7 Anubis 6-1320 Nuke 13-1127SplitUnder ✓
2026-09-26Banda Chuya24 Anubis 13-712 Cache 13-936WOver ✗
2026-09-07Nemesis11 Mirage 9-1311 Ancient 6-1322LUnder ✓
2026-08-28ex-RUBY18 Dust2 13-1018 Cache 13-1136WOver ✗
2026-08-23MAYBE12 Dust2 13-317 Mirage 13-729WUnder ✓BO
2026-08-23Younglings13 Ancient 13-1012 Dust2 13-725WUnder ✓
2026-08-20Younglings11 Ancient 13-810 Mirage 13-721WUnder ✓
CS2 Lab is 21+

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